The US housing market over the past 48 hours reveals a sector in transition. The latest data shows that while home prices are at record highs, price growth is slowing noticeably compared with prior months. The median asking price for a US home rose 2.2 percent to 403,000 dollars for the four weeks ending July 20, marking the smallest increase since August 2023. The median sales price during this period hit a record 399,000 dollars, but annual price growth has slowed to just 1.6 percent compared to the 5 to 6 percent increases seen through most of 2024 and early 2025. This cooling trend is creating more leverage for buyers and encouraging some to reenter the market after months on the sidelines.
Despite these moderating price increases, housing affordability remains a critical issue. Median prices for existing homes climbed to 435,300 dollars last month, breaking previous records. The National Association of Realtors confirms the market has reached its most unaffordable level in years. Mortgage rates remain elevated, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage standing at 6.75 percent. While buyers hoped for a significant drop in rates following last year's Federal Reserve rate cuts, rates have stayed stubbornly high, reinforcing affordability challenges.
Sales volumes continue to be weak. Existing home sales are projected to decline 1.5 percent in 2025, potentially reaching the lowest level since 1995. The number of failed home sale agreements hit a new high, with almost 15 percent of pending transactions falling through in June. Buyers are increasingly hesitant, often opting to rent rather than purchase due to high costs and continued economic uncertainty.
On the supply side, housing inventory is up 17 percent year over year, and there is now a 3.5-month supply of homes—more than at any point in the past several years. Builders are adjusting to softer demand by slowing new construction, with new home sales remaining sluggish and median new home prices down nearly 5 percent from May. Leading industry platforms like Zillow now forecast a minor decline in home values by the end of 2025, a notable shift from earlier bullish outlooks.
In short, the US housing market is experiencing softer growth, increased inventory, persistent affordability problems, and a cautious, price-sensitive consumer base. While not a crash, these changes represent a significant turn from the rapid gains and overheated conditions of recent years.
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