In the past 48 hours, the US housing industry continues to grapple with high prices and a slow-moving market, according to the latest data from the National Association of Realtors and US Census Bureau. Pending home sales nationwide dropped 0.8 percent from May to June, and are down 2.8 percent year-over-year, signaling persistent challenges for buyers and sellers alike. Despite a notable rise in inventory this summer, home prices have not decreased but instead reached an all-time high last month, keeping affordability out of reach for many, especially first-time and younger buyers. Many sellers are delisting their homes rather than accepting lower offers, prolonging the current logjam. The only regional exception was the Northeast, where pending sales ticked up 2 percent in June, while declines were recorded in the West, Midwest, and South.
One of the most significant shifts is that existing homes are now more expensive than new single-family homes, a reversal from historical norms. In the second quarter of 2025, the median price for a new single-family home was 410,800 dollars, nearly 19,000 less than the median for existing homes at 429,400 dollars. This gap is the largest on record and is mainly due to tactical price reductions by new home builders, while existing home prices have continued to climb due to limited supply and a reluctance to adjust pricing downward.
Looking ahead, Fannie Mae forecasts that mortgage rates may slip to 6.4 percent by year end, potentially reviving some buyer activity. Overall home sales are expected to increase slightly in 2025, and home price growth is projected to slow to just 2.8 percent this year and 1.1 percent in 2026. However, the boost in supply has not yet yielded better affordability or eased competition.
There has also been an increase in completed foreclosures, with real estate owned properties rising 34 percent year-over-year in May. This signals emerging risks but is not seen as immediately destabilizing. Consumer confidence ticked up modestly in July, but buyers remain cautious, and the rental market continues to attract those priced out of homeownership.
In summary, while inventory is rising and mortgage rates may edge down, high prices and limited affordability are likely to keep home sales and price growth subdued through 2025 as the industry searches for a sustainable balance between supply, demand, and pricing power[1][3][4][5][6].
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