The US housing industry is emerging from one of its slowest periods in recent memory and hints of a turnaround are surfacing in the past 48 hours. Recent data shows that mortgage applications have increased by 31 percent year over year and the average 30 year fixed mortgage rate has edged down to approximately 6.2 percent from 7 percent at the start of 2025. Strong job growth continues to underpin buyer confidence, while homebuilders are reversing last year’s slowdown and adding new supply rather than cancelling projects. The National Association of Realtors expects national home sales could rise about 14 percent in 2026 with an estimated 4 percent increase in home prices following a 3 percent climb in 2025. However, buyers remain highly segmented. Wealthy cash buyers are active in the high end market but entry level inventory is still very tight. First time buyers now account for just 21 percent of transactions compared to a historical average near 40 percent. The typical first time buyer is now 40 years old, reflecting the impact of student debt, rent spikes, and high childcare costs. Some regional markets are seeing growing inventory with September’s housing supply up 14 percent year over year to 1.55 million existing homes, a sign of sellers reentering the market and potential price competition. Median sale price for the four weeks ending November 2 reached 392,375 dollars, a two percent rise year over year. Homes that sit on the market are increasingly subject to price cuts, about 5 percent after two weeks and over 13 percent after four months. Affordability, meanwhile, is challenged by surging hidden costs, with non mortgage expenses exceeding 10,000 dollars annually for typical homeowners and far higher in major coastal cities. Despite concerns, low delinquency rates and continued job gains mean foreclosures and a broad market crash remain unlikely. Industry leaders are responding to these crosscurrents by targeting new segments and adjusting pricing models. In comparison to prior years, housing demand is steady but not exuberant, and the largest players anticipate a slow but stable climb out of the current malaise. Looking forward, most analysts expect moderate national price gains as the supply of affordable homes continues to lag fundamental demand.

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