Over the past 48 hours, the US housing industry has shown signs of mild improvement in affordability as mortgage rates have edged down from recent highs and home price growth has flattened or slightly declined in many regions. As of mid-September 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is approximately 6.35 percent, a noticeable drop from earlier this year and the peaks seen in late 2024 when rates were above 7 percent. Most experts expect rates to remain in the 6.2 to 6.5 percent range through year-end, with significant drops unlikely unless there is a major economic slowdown.
National housing affordability improved by 3.1 percent year-over-year in June, marking five consecutive months of gains. This uptick is due to lower mortgage rates, slower home price growth, and modest increases in household income. The Real House Price Index, which adjusts for inflation and consumer buying power, shows that conditions for homebuyers are better than at any point since September 2024. Despite these improvements, affordability remains 70 percent worse than the pre-pandemic average and the number of US homeowners has stopped growing for the first time in nearly a decade. Many buyers still find prices and rates out of reach.
Major metros such as Austin and San Francisco have seen notable price declines, with Austin down 13 percent from its June 2022 peak and San Francisco down 10 percent from April 2022. Some Midwest markets like Milwaukee, Buffalo, and Chicago have become hotspots, with homes selling in as little as 32 days, driven by affordability and attracting buyers who have been priced out of other areas. These metros are experiencing tight inventory and strong seller leverage.
Recent data indicate ongoing challenges for homebuilders, as residential building permits in July were down 2.8 percent month-over-month and 5.7 percent year-over-year. Residential investment dropped 4.7 percent in Q2, accelerating from a 1.3 percent decline in Q1, signaling persistent headwinds in construction and supply. The Federal Reserve continues to monitor housing as a critical economic indicator and may announce further rate adjustments if weakness persists.
Compared to previous months, the past week has shown buyers regaining some control due to flat or declining prices, but sellers are feeling the impact of reduced pricing power. Industry leaders are responding by offering targeted incentives and focusing on affordable segments to address ongoing demand shifts. While some industry observers call the recent improvement encouraging for buyers, full affordability recovery is expected to be gradual and uneven.
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