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US politics and soft power, China's annus horribilis, and predictions for 2021
In this second season of GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander and Georgina Downer discuss the crazy world of US politics and its impact on US soft power.
US President Donald Trump's behaviour since the Presidential election on 4 November 2020 has been abysmal. Behaving like a spoilt child, he cruelled the Republican Party's chances of holding the two Senate seats in Georgia, thereby denying the Republicans control of the Senate. His incitement to violence of his supporters to prevent the US Congress certifying the electoral college nomination of Joe Biden as the next US President was the final nail in the coffin for this historically controversial US President.
But will US soft power throughout the world suffer a fatal blow? Arguably, the US has weathered worse or similar bouts of behaviour and still is the country with the most significant amount of soft power. And this is likely to continue irrespective of Trump and his legacy.
For China, 2020 was an annus horribilis: its Covid-19 response saw China's soft power plunge dramatically. But things could have been so very different if China had used Covid-19 as an opportunity to take up the mantle of global leader in this health emergency. Small trends are emerging that China is recalibrating its approach but we need to see much more to call it a change in strategy.
The only certainty for 2021 is that this will be a year of uncertainty. But Covid-19 vaccines will be rolled out and help deal with the global pandemic, albeit slower and less dramatically than we would all like.
Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel will step down this year after 16 years in office. Perhaps her Health Minister will take over but if so he will have big big shoes to fill.
Scotland will hold legislative elections which are likely to put First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in an even stronger position but it's unlikely UK PM Boris Johnson will allow her a second independence referendum for Scotland. She might find another way though through the courts.
Iran will hold presidential elections but the US will likely not renegotiate the deal with Iran that Trump tore up four years ago. This will be a tough decision for the incoming Biden Administration.
And China. China might recalibrate and tone down its wolf warrior diplomats. If not, 2021 will be another rocky ride for the world.
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By Tenjin ConsultingIn this second season of GeoPod, Tenjin Consulting's Alexander and Georgina Downer discuss the crazy world of US politics and its impact on US soft power.
US President Donald Trump's behaviour since the Presidential election on 4 November 2020 has been abysmal. Behaving like a spoilt child, he cruelled the Republican Party's chances of holding the two Senate seats in Georgia, thereby denying the Republicans control of the Senate. His incitement to violence of his supporters to prevent the US Congress certifying the electoral college nomination of Joe Biden as the next US President was the final nail in the coffin for this historically controversial US President.
But will US soft power throughout the world suffer a fatal blow? Arguably, the US has weathered worse or similar bouts of behaviour and still is the country with the most significant amount of soft power. And this is likely to continue irrespective of Trump and his legacy.
For China, 2020 was an annus horribilis: its Covid-19 response saw China's soft power plunge dramatically. But things could have been so very different if China had used Covid-19 as an opportunity to take up the mantle of global leader in this health emergency. Small trends are emerging that China is recalibrating its approach but we need to see much more to call it a change in strategy.
The only certainty for 2021 is that this will be a year of uncertainty. But Covid-19 vaccines will be rolled out and help deal with the global pandemic, albeit slower and less dramatically than we would all like.
Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel will step down this year after 16 years in office. Perhaps her Health Minister will take over but if so he will have big big shoes to fill.
Scotland will hold legislative elections which are likely to put First Minister Nicola Sturgeon in an even stronger position but it's unlikely UK PM Boris Johnson will allow her a second independence referendum for Scotland. She might find another way though through the courts.
Iran will hold presidential elections but the US will likely not renegotiate the deal with Iran that Trump tore up four years ago. This will be a tough decision for the incoming Biden Administration.
And China. China might recalibrate and tone down its wolf warrior diplomats. If not, 2021 will be another rocky ride for the world.