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USA vs China, Iran, and Turkey
Make sure to follow this week's guest Mark Sleboda on X at @MarkSleboda1
Find me and the show on social media @DrWilmerLeon on X (Twitter), Instagram, and YouTube
Facebook page is www.facebook.com/Drwilmerleonctd
Announcer (00:06):
Connecting the dots with Dr. Wilmer Leon, where the analysis of politics, culture, and history converge.
Dr Leon (00:14):
Welcome to the Connecting the Dots podcast with Dr. Wilmer Leon. I am Wilmer Leon. Here's the point. We have a tendency to view current events as though they occur in a vacuum, failing to see the broader historical context in which events take place. During each episode of this program, my guests and I have probing, provocative, and in-depth discussions that connect the dots between current events and the broader historic context in which they occur. This enables you to better understand and analyze the events that impact the global village in which we live on today's episode. The issue before us is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and why does the United States keep throwing good taxpayer dollars after bad. To discuss this, we are joined by my guest Mark Sloboda. He's a Moscow based international relations and security analyst. Mark, as always, welcome back
Mark Sleboda (01:18):
Dr. Leon. Thanks for having me. It's always an honor and a pleasure to be on connecting the dots.
Dr Leon (01:23):
So it's been reported that an attack on a convoy of Ukrainian military equipment in the esque people's Republic was carried out with the use of short range ballistic missiles. And it also seems as though with all of this hand wringing in the US Congress about funding for Ukraine, all the US and NATO is doing, or seems to be doing, is sending more targets for Russia to destroy your thoughts, mark.
Mark Sleboda (01:52):
Yeah, there's some rather dramatic developments really under-reported in the Western press that have very large implications going forward for the conflict in Ukraine. The current situation on the ground, I think the Western mainstream media has finally their propaganda narrative bubble has finally burst. Look, in a span of how short a period of time we have gone from Ukraine is winning to
(02:34)
Stalemate, it's a stalemate on the battlefield to, oh my God, we're losing to Nigeria with snow. I mean, that's the rather dramatic change in the propaganda narrative, and I think we can see it reflected in the political elite as well with the panic and desperation that is starting to sit in and become rather obvious among European leaders who really have the most to lose from this conflict, rather other than the Kiev regime in Ukraine itself. And this all occurs, these latest incidents in the final weeks of and the aftermath of the Russian breakthrough of the Kiev regime's most heavily fortified fortress city, these extensive defenses and fortifications trenches, concrete bunkers, pill boxes, networks of tunnels, layers of minefields, you name it, Inca, which is really quite close to Dan City, and a western journalist a couple of years ago already referred to it rather poetically if quite awfully as a knife pointed at the heart of Dansk.
(04:10)
They meant that in a good way. Another way, of course, looking at it was a Jack boot pressed to the neck of the people of Donbass because it is from aca and the settlements shielded behind it that the Ki regime forces brutally shelled the people of Dansk for the last decade pretty much regularly. They didn't shell military facilities, they shelled civilian areas with artillery, with cluster munitions, with pedal mines. And this was to punish the people of done bus for choosing wrong, for not accepting the overthrow of the government by the Westback Maan butch back in 2014, and with the intention with driving Russian ethnic people who did not accept the new Ukraine into Russia. That was the intention and one of the primary reasons for the Russian intervention in the Ukrainian civil conflict, not the only one. There were security concerns as well, but this was loudly voiced as well.
(05:22)
And when the Russians broke through it aga, they did it rather dramatically towards the end. It ended up much shorter than say the siege of Bach Mu, despite the defenses in a DKA being considerably stronger, and this is because of a sea change on the battlefield. The KI regime's initial a integrated Soviet legacy air defense network, the backbone of which was the formidable S 300 systems had been largely deteriorated at this point already a few months ago. And on top of what hadn't been destroyed, they were absolutely out of interceptor missiles for it, and there were none left in countries that are now part of the west former Eastern Bloc countries. Their supplies were all exhausted. So there was an attempt to put together a hodgepodge piece meal air defense system not properly integrated with using Western systems, but that has also been attributed away over the last few months.
(06:35)
Russia launched an extensive campaign over the winter, and that was a primary target of their missile and drone campaign. So in afca, Russia fully unleashed the fab guided glide bombs on these defenses. And these are old dumb munitions with smart glide kits that turn them into precision weapons being able to fire from air at a distance of tens of kilometers. And because these are bombs, not artillery shells, they have a considerably bigger payload. They come in 500, 1000 and 1500 kilogram capacities and they just annihilate. I mean, if the Ki regime turns, say what they did pretty much to every building in the city, turning it into a mini fortress that has to be individually stormed one fab bomb, and it's gone. And particularly at the larger end, the 1500, they have an incredibly demoralizing effect on anyone within the radius of experiencing the explosion, the concussion and the like.
(07:57)
And in the closing days of a dka, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, they dropped over 500 of these, oh my God, on the fortresses in just the last few days, right? So that's why they collapsed so quickly and dramatically at the end and why there was such a route. And they're able to do this now because they can fly with a considerable degree of impunity over the battlefield because first, the Soviet legacy and now the Western Air Defense system sent us a replacement, have largely been destroyed. And immediately in the aftermath of Dfca, the Russian forces far from being exhausted, as many Western military analysts drinking their own propaganda Kool-Aid tried to claim claiming high casualties as they always do without evidence to back it up other than the say so of the regime in Kiev. Russian forces were not exhausted because they had not suffered any considerable attrition because they had been standing off and dropping an extremely large bombs from Sue, 30 fours from fighter bombers on ev dca, which is what did at least at the end the majority of their work for them once they were already ensconced in the outskirts of the city.
(09:24)
So they continued on fallback positions in the next line of villages that Kiev regime forces had retreated to and were hastily trying to dig themselves in because they had not built proper defenses. And for instance, Laska and Severna lasted two or three days, and as Russia moved on the second line of villages even further, and we faced a real breakthrough in the Kiev regime defensive lines at this point, the Kiev regime became desperate to try to at least slow down. We're not even talking stop, but to slow down the Russian advance to give themselves more time to hastily dig as the Western headlines have now been talking about what the Kiv regime needs to do to dig new trenches, to dig new fortifications. So they moved a large number of what air defense systems they had left elsewhere in the country into an area far too close to the battlefield.
(10:32)
And Russia at this point, not only of course, enjoys air superiority over the contact line, but they also enjoy drone superiority. And Russia has put a rather larger number of military satellites into the orbit in the last year, last few months that have started to come online. So they were able to track these air defense systems fairly well, and it's more than just three patriot launchers that have been destroyed. Also, one of the remaining older S 300 air defense systems, several NASS air defense systems supplied by the US and Norway, and also a number of books and smaller systems. By my count at least 11 air defense systems have been destroyed in the last two weeks over the area immediately to the west of F dca. And this is adding to the butcher's bill. Previously, the Kev regime has adopted a new tactic in several areas.
(11:50)
We saw it over the sea of, we saw it also in Belgo where that Ill 76 transport plane shut down the KI regime shut down its own plane full of prisoners of war A couple of months ago, if you remember forced to admit it, they've been sending in an attempt to try to stop the Russian dominance of the skies. They've tried to use essentially not mobile air defense systems in a mobile capacity to set up ambushes for Russian planes to instill a degree of caution and restraint. But that has proven very costly for them because they've also lost air defense systems in that way as well, because of course, Russia was actively hunting them down and despite their claims to have shut down large numbers of Russian aircraft, there is zero evidence providing this zero. I mean, and there have been plenty of evidence, for instance, of the Kev regime's own aircraft, remaining aircraft being shot down when they're shot down.
(13:06)
There is video footage, there is air wreckage and the like. So really questionable claims they may have sacrificed other than this, of course, the POW plane, which everyone noticed, but that was an undefended transport plane flying in what it assumed a mission of peace bringing POWs for an exchange. So they've lost a huge degree of whatever hodgepodge air defense they had left. Now, Forbes speaking just of the events in F dca, not of the rest of it, says that just in those engagements that the Kev regime lost 13% of its air defense capacity speaking specifically of the Patriot systems provided to it. And that's on paper because they're not acknowledging earlier patriot systems that have been shot down. So I would suggest that they have at this point lost far more. They probably have a number of patriot launchers in the single digits left in Kiev, for instance, possibly in Odessa.
(14:22)
But the implications of this going forward is that Russian use of air superiority and even now close air support over the contact line is going to dramatically increase because there is no air defense left to deal with them, which means the pace of Russian advances are going to increase. And this is when even Western analysts and Ukrainians are talking about rather large concentrations of Russian forces behind the lines that have been built up but not committed yet. And there is the suspicion that they're going to launch a large scale big arrow offensive sometime later this year. In fact, the Kiev regime has just in the past week evacuated the entirety of Harko region. Some 85 settlements ordered the civilian evacuation because they fear a big offensive in the harko direction in the coming probably months, perhaps weeks.
Dr Leon (15:36):
President Biden told us during his State of the Union address that Ukraine can stop Putin, Ukraine can stop Putin if we stand with Ukraine and provide the weapons that it needs to defend itself. That's all he says. In fact, there are no American soldiers at war in Ukraine. My question is, who's operating these US supplied Patriot air defense systems and are there US special forces trainers that are on the ground training these forces?
Mark Sleboda (16:14):
Okay, so first to the last point, Joe Biden is lying genocide. Joe is flat up lying and we know it because the Western mainstream media has told us already in the summer of 2022 in the New York Times and the Washington Post talking about unusually large numbers of US intelligence and US and European commandos on the ground in Ukraine. Then later we heard there were hundreds of uniformed US troops on the ground, again from the western mainstream media that were doing tracking of Western supplied weapons. Now, if that's really what they were doing, then they weren't doing a very good job because it was only weeks after that we heard that the West couldn't track these weapons at all. So I mean either they were completely incompetent or they are doing something else on the ground
Dr Leon (17:15):
On top of them. Wait a minute, are these also, aren't these the same stories that a lot of these weapons are showing up in other battles in other countries?
Mark Sleboda (17:24):
Yes. Yes. With the idea that a tithe essentially of Western weapons is being sold through corruption in the Ukrainian military and the distribution networks off because of the prevalent corruption in the country to pad their own pockets. And then I don't think there's anything question about that. The Western mainstream media has long reported about that. In fact, early on, CBS noted that some 70% of the weapons supplied by the west were not reading the front lines. This was early on in the conflict. So on top of those commandos, we now the Russian government has long complained that these high-tech systems supplied by the west from the US in particular the high Mars and multiple launch rocket systems in the Patriot air defense systems, as well as some French air defense systems, Polish crab artillery systems, British storm shadows, cruise missiles, that these are all being operated by western military specialists who are being sent there under the guise of mercenaries or humanitarian and aid workers and the like, because it is impossible to train the Kiev regime forces in such a short period of time to operate these advanced western systems.
(19:09)
The Russian government's been saying this for a considerable amount of time, but this was confirmed by no less a person than the German chancellor Olaf Schultz, who in an apparent spat back and forth with the French leader, Emmanuel Macron, and to the British as well, when the British were pressuring Germany to deliver the Taurus missiles, the context of Ola Schultz is we can't do what the British, the French, and the Americans are doing and have people obliquely. He admitted that the West had their military forces on the ground operating their systems and that Germany could not be seen as doing that. And this was reinforced in these leaked military calls from the German Air Force planning, a series of cruise missile attacks inside Russia with the expected to be delivered towards cruise missile system, at least expected by them. The political elites in Germany aren't saying that, but they also revealed that the German cruise missiles could perhaps be operated on the ground by the rather large number of Americans of people on the ground wearing civilian clothes with American accents, which of course is a roundabout way of saying US military personnel not in uniform on the ground in Ukraine.
(20:58)
So I mean, they just have to
Dr Leon (20:59):
Be curious from Kansas that are wandering the fields and the step of Germany and Russia and Ukraine.
Mark Sleboda (21:07):
Yeah, they're not wearing boots. They're wearing ballet slippers or figure skates or something, I guess. So that's a lie. Second of all, the Kim regime can defeat. Well, Ukraine can beat Putin, right? The childish way that western leaders and media try to demonize any opponent down to just one leader and so forth. But if that was true, if Western military aid in Ukrainian regime hands was enough to beat Russia, then what happened over their failed summer counter offensive that was armed trained, financed intelligence planned and war gamed out by nato, primarily US by the Pentagon, that's who did it. They failed. They failed badly. They were mauled. They never even got past the first of Russia's five echelon defensive lines and suffered horrible casualties in the process. No one denies that. So there is no indication that however additional tens of billions of dollars of aid are sent that the West will ever again able to build an offensive force like they did for Ukraine in the summer offensive because they simply don't have the weapons in inventory to replace everything like that.
(22:50)
They do have some things, they got plenty of Bradleys if they want. Obviously they're very reticent to allow the rather small number of Abrams that they've sent to be used in combat. Four of them have been destroyed after just appearing on the battlefield in the last week. But the rest of the Western militaries that supplied weapons, they're tapped out. France, Germany, Denmark, the United Kingdom, they've all said, we can't supply anymore because we've already dug past our stockpiles into our own military supplies and we can't replace these systems fast enough. For instance, one French Caesar self-propelled Howitzer, a total of 36 of these between France and Denmark were supplied to the Kiev regime for the course of that offensive. And they're practically through all of them, they have very few of them left because Russia's been hunting them down. And also they are subjected to considerable wear and tear, and they're not actually built for high intensity combat like this, much like the US' M triple sevens and the Paladins and the like. But it takes the French 18 months, the French military industrial complex, 18 months. 18 months
Dr Leon (24:20):
To
Mark Sleboda (24:21):
Build one
Dr Leon (24:22):
That's a year and a half
Mark Sleboda (24:23):
One Caesar. But we heard that they have shortened that time to 15 months. Oh
Dr Leon (24:30):
Wow. That makes me feel a whole lot better. You just mentioned the leaked recordings from the German Air Force, and is it a coincidence that after these conversations were leaked where the Germans were talking about taking out bridges in Russia with cruise missiles that Victoria Newland resigns because there are some who say that her name was mentioned in on these tapes and that the German Air Force officers were really talking about conversations either they had with her or ideas that she was presenting about these attacks inside Russia?
Mark Sleboda (25:16):
Yeah, there's a possibility there, and if that is the situation, then it appears that she was probably forced out by the Biden administration. But are I think there are other considerations in play. Victoria Newland, the Queen NeoCon of the us, she's married to Robert Kagan who is the arch NeoCon of the United States. Robert Kagan, his books, check them out if you're unfamiliar with his sinister work. I would say she has long dominated through several presidencies US policy towards Ukraine. She was instrumental in the actual Westpac, my Don pooch, if not the key architect of it. She was caught on recordings with then US Ambassador Jeffrey Piat, talking about how they needed to midwife this thing, bring then Obama's Vice President Joe Biden into midwife it picking the new Prime Minister of Ukraine, Arsen Ya from the leaders, the figurehead leaders of the Maidan, and then famously saying F, the when the idea that the Europeans might want someone else for Ukraine's next prime minister was presented. So I mean she's been instrumental and she briefly left office during the Trump administration and then came right back. She has been serving as under Secretary for political affairs, which despite the rather kafkaesque bureaucratic name is actually the third highest official within the US Department of War. I'm sorry, not the US Department of War, US Department of State. My bad.
Dr Leon (27:23):
I can understand the confusion.
Mark Sleboda (27:24):
I said the difference. Yeah, she a third highest official and she was actually operating as the second highest official just below the Secretary of State for about a half of year when Wendy Sherman, the previous Deputy Secretary of State stepped down. So she was doing the number two and number three job and it was widely expected that she would be permanently assigned to that position, a permanently elevated to Deputy Secretary of State. But we found out that just a month ago she was passed over for this position by Kirk Campbell. The Biden approved someone else, and Kirk Campbell is an Asia specialist. He's a specialist on China, which to my mind tells me that the Biden administration is tiring of this conflict in Ukraine and they're already looking past it despite the bad situation. Their proxy regime is in to China, which may indicate a planned change of policy or at least prioritization or at the very least an unwillingness to escalate further, I say may.
Dr Leon (28:48):
So does that mean then that the Biden administration is now following along the previous Obama administration's tilt towards Asia?
Mark Sleboda (29:02):
Yeah, that's entirely possible. I believe that's what the Biden administration always wanted to do. They wanted the Middle East to remain quiet and it was not a priority for them. That didn't go out down so well. Just a week before the October 7th, seventh launching of the all Axel flood operation by Hamas on Israel, Jake Sullivan was in an essay talking about how nice and quiet the Middle East was, which allowed the US to concentrate on other areas. Well, that didn't go so well then since then. But they wanted the Middle East to be quiet. They expected to finish off Russia quickly. They expected their sanctions to destroy the Russian economy, Putin to be overthrown, and because of the economic commiseration of the country
Dr Leon (29:58):
They wrong
Mark Sleboda (30:00):
And that they would now, their biggest concern would be dividing up Russia into smaller pieces and how to go about that. That appears to have been their plan. Okay, so not so good on the plan thing, but then they hoped they thought that would be finished quickly and then to pivot hard to China. I think that was always their plan to finish Russia off quickly, ignore the Middle East and pivot hard to China. And none of that, of course has gone according to plan. So with A and B having failed, they're trying to go to C anyway in very likely the months at this point that they have remaining to them. And I think that the passing over of Victoria Newland for that is a sign that the Biden administration is already lost interest, possibly due to inability to achieve their desired goals and is shifting to the next goals that they can't probably accomplish even more so I would say if they think that they're going to defeat China in some type of conflict off of their own coast in the Taiwan Straits and South China Sea. But anyway, I expect that Victoria Newland was extremely unhappy about being passed over. She was probably, she can see the bureaucratic writing on the wall that the prioritization is changing away from her reason for existence, which is fighting Russia. And I think that that probably at least as much if not more so played a role in her deciding to quit or being forced out. We don't know the real truth of that yet, although I imagine that she won't be able to keep her mouth shut forever on that score
Dr Leon (31:51):
Or her husband. So political reports that France finds Baltic allies in its spat with Germany over Ukraine troop deployment, that France is building up an alliance of countries to open potentially that are open to potentially sending Western troops to Ukraine. That Mark sounds to me like there's a lot of tension within nato. And going again back to President Biden State of the Union, he told us America is a founding member of nato, the Military Alliance of Democratic Nations, and that to prevent war, we've made NATO even stronger, which is the point that I was trying to get to about this element of his speech that we've made NATO even stronger, and now he also assigns or attributes Finland joining NATO as evidence of NATO's strength. It doesn't sound like, it doesn't sound like it's all good in
Mark Sleboda (32:59):
Yeah, I mean definitely. I mean, Hungary and Slovakia of course are the most egregious examples of this because they are completely against the proxy war now being fought on Russia in Ukraine completely. They won't have anything to do with it. But yeah, there are definitely, I think tensions and cracks emerging and a bit of a panicked blame game going on right now with different European countries all trying to blame each other saying You haven't done enough. And with Macron coming out now in the aftermath of the taking of a DKA coming out and openly talking about putting NATO troops on the ground, I think this is not something that is a secret, something that has not been discussed for, and something that contingency plans are not already in place to do in the future. They just aren't in a political situation to have it said out loud. Now, I think that's the real problem that Germany and other countries have. It's causing them, no one is ready to do it now, and the fact that it has been brought up now, they see as politically detrimental to them in their own countries
Dr Leon (34:29):
As in the farmers' protests in Germany,
Mark Sleboda (34:32):
Yeah, in Poland, yes, Poland. I mean there are protests across Europe, but also, yes, the fragile coalition government in Germany, the rise of the A FD, the alternative for Germany, the alternative for Deutsche Man, yeah, party in Germany. These are all blowback from the European involvement in the conflict in Ukraine, and they just did not need this. Now, I think Macron has pointed out two things. One is that levels of escalation in this conflict, red lines that we will not cross in terms of escalation have been passed again and again and again. I remember back in February and March of 2022 when Joe Biden saying that US tanks and jets us would never supply tanks and jets to Ukraine because that would mean World War iii, right? But US tanks are now burning in the urban agglomerations of the Donez region, and US F sixteens are supposedly on their way within the next couple of months to the Kiev regime.
(35:55)
So again and again, these lines have been crossed, and I believe this line will be crossed eventually, but not yet. The second point, and Macron pointed this out, what we once thought was unacceptable has become normal operations repeatedly during this conflict as they've crawled further up or down the escalation ladder, however you choose to look at it. And he also then made a point that when French troops might be sent into Ukraine, when Russian forces move on Kiev or Odessa, which is most likely some time away, probably more than a year, maybe longer than that. So yeah, I mean, right now fighting Russia has a lot of advantages on the battlefield, but big advances can still be measured in a handful of kilometers, a tree line, a small village.
(37:04)
The writing is on the wall in terms of the logistics of a war of attrition and everything, but I think there's still a lot of hard ground slogging into the future. Macron sees that as well, so they're panicking now. I think he's right that when Russia moves towards Kia or Odessa, there will be probably greater support for his suggestions, but we've already seen support from the Baltics. The Baltic leaders have come out and said, yes, we're ready to send the handful of troops that we have now, because if there's anything the Baltics country need is to come out on the losing end of this conflict, having sent their own troops to war with Russia and having a NATO either fall apart or turned into a toothless tiger as a result of this really, really bad geopolitical move to my mind. I mean, because they're of course the most vulnerable.
(38:05)
They've got large populations of Russian ethnic populations that they have been rather seriously politically and linguistically culturally repressing, particularly over the last two years, even trying to expel as many Russian ethnic people from their countries as they can, practically inviting some type of Russian backed efforts against those governments in the Baltics, really not a smart move, but also Poland has made the Polish foreign minister Sikorsky back again, by the way, has also seemed to suggest contrary to statements by the Polish president, that at some point down the line, Polish troops could be sent into Ukraine and also Canada. Trudeau has also volunteered Canadian troops as well in non-combat roles of course, because that's what you do with your military troops. You send them into a conflict zone
Dr Leon (39:16):
Very as non-combatants
Mark Sleboda (39:19):
Like trainers. First you have trainers and advisors, then you have non-combatants. We know the way this goes, so obviously there is already, and check the Czech president has also suggested he is a former NATO official himself, a very big hawk on Russia, and he has also hedged his words and seemed to suggest that Czech might be able to consider it. So these are countries who are already coming out and we're just past aca, which is really only about 12 kilometers away from Donis city, right? I mean, there's a lot more to come and the panic and desperation will increase, and I think Macron will definitely find more countries down the road when it becomes completely impossible to deny as it will become in the future, the writing on the wall that the regime cannot hold militarily. The New York Times has already talked about the possibility, and I think it's a very strong possibility of later this year cascading collapses along the Kiev regime's, defensive lines, not me, but the New York Times has raised that as is talking to anonymous western military intelligence analysts about the probable course of the Ukrainian battlefield over the next half a year.
Dr Leon (40:51):
We mentioned Sweden joining NATO and Finland has joined nato, and we know about the very strong and robust social programs that those countries have because they, up until this point, have had a position of neutrality in conflict, which means they haven't had to send the public resources over to a defense budget. Now that that seems to be changing, are we looking at Finland and Sweden as having to shift those resources? We now see more NeoCon policy as well as what we'll call austerity measures. Can we expect austerity measures to creep their way into social policy in Finland and in Sweden?
Mark Sleboda (41:49):
Yeah, inevitably, I think we've already seen it to a certain degree. They've already, of course, suffered heavy economic consequences from their own sanctions on Russia, probably more significant than have been experienced by the Russian economy. Finland in particular did a very good cross border business. I was on the Finnish Russian border just a year ago at kind of a wilderness vacation place on the border there, well, actually a couple of years ago before the conflict, but very nice, and it was normal to cross the border from Russia and Finland to go to the store, for instance. Someone had this better, someone had that better, and there was a great deal of cross border business that has immensely suffered as a result already hurting the finish economy. The Swedes have suffered the same thing, perhaps to a lesser degree without sharing an open border, but experienced it as well, and now, I mean they've exhausted a great deal.
(42:58)
Finland and Sweden have both provided outsized military resources to the Kiev regime already, and those resources like so much else, are largely gone. They're either up in smoke or filtered away in the Kiev regime's corruption, so on top of the Kiev regime, of course, loudly demanding more, more, they also have to replenish their own military stocks, and now they have to militarize their own borders, which were UNM militarized, particularly in the case of Finland, which has a very large border. It was demilitarized, it was not a militarized border. There was police presence, but it was not a militarized border that is now changing and of course, facing the prospect of Finland joining NATO and US forces on finished soil, Russia has reordered, completely changed military districting on the border there and provided tens of thousands of new troops to be placed on the border as having to potentially deal with US troops being stationed in Finland as defensive contingencies, Finland is going to bear an increased burden with military. I do not see how this makes them more secure than they were before. I mean, they weren't targeted with nuclear missiles, and now they will be.
(44:36)
I guess that is the price of joining the cool Western Kids Club in nato, which it seems that the Finnish political elite wanted more than not creating economic and military problems with their much larger southern neighbor.
Dr Leon (44:57):
I read a story recently that elite units of Ukrainian armed forces are discussing overthrowing zelensky. Is that a rumor? Any traction of that story there in Moscow and any insight into commanders and soldiers in elite units of the Ukrainian armed forces? They're dissatisfied with the reshuffling of the leadership and they're talking about ousting VMI Zelensky.
Mark Sleboda (45:30):
Yeah. When Zelensky got rid of zany, and let's be clear, this didn't happen because of his military failures on the battlefield. It was done for political reasons because he saw zany as a threat as possibly running for president himself for staging a military coup and the possibility there were plenty of signs that the US was actually for a time considering switching horses, which is why he forbade elections in Ukraine, citing the martial law emergency powers, and so that he didn't have to face zny in an election, which the polls say he would've lost because zany has more support in the country than he does now. He didn't only get rid of ny, he got rid of whole streams of top down to low level commanders who were seen as loyal to ny. There was a huge reshuffling or replacement of Ukrainian of the Kev regime's military leaders. As a result of this, there's a lot of embittered military people because of this. We don't need to look in secret telegram chat rooms to hear this discussion because
Dr Leon (46:56):
Regime, which is where this story was originally attributable, yeah, the
Mark Sleboda (47:00):
Story is sourced from here, but there have already been open public statements by Kiev regime, military commanders on the battlefield saying to the Ukrainian journalists, this is wrong. There was a list signed by hundreds of Ukrainian military commanders serving on the battlefield, a petition asking Zelensky to get rid of Ky, whom he chose to replace Zelensky, whom is known as the
Dr Leon (47:38):
Butcher, the butcher
Mark Sleboda (47:40):
By his own forces, not because of the opponents that he kills, but because of his careless attitude towards the lives of his own people. So they made an
Dr Leon (47:54):
That's not a good moniker. As a commander, you don't want your own forces seeing you in the light of butchering them.
Mark Sleboda (48:04):
Yeah, I mean, my military experience tells me that that would not be the type of military commander that I wanted. Certainly, and I seriously doubt that they do as well. Plus Sirki is actually ethnic Russian. He was born in Russia in the Soviet Union. His family still lives in Russia, and they're actually quite Russian patriotic, so it's a rather bizarre situation, and in many ways there's a lot of
Dr Leon (48:30):
Parallels. It makes for a tough Christmas dinner.
Mark Sleboda (48:32):
I don't think it makes for a Christmas dinner at all. I'm pretty sure, and there are definitely parallels with the US Civil War to be drawn there and with so many other families across Russia and Ukraine. But yeah, they've made demands of Zelensky public demands that they replace, that they bring back zany and get rid of ky, and of course that was ignored and large numbers of those commanders were replaced. But if they're discussing it openly and he's already taking this vengeful action against them, there's no great surprise that they are talking about it in what they believe to be secret chat rooms about taking it into their own hands. It's rather interesting, of course, that the Russian intelligence chose to make this public because if they have penetrated this chat room, you can be totally sure that the key regime's military intelligence, let's say Ka bov loyal to Zelinsky, has penetrated this as well, and by going public with it, Russia might be forcing Zelinsky hand to take action against these coup plotting, even if it's in the very nascent, we hate this guy, why can't we get rid of him? Stage of, shall we say, trash talk. It might be forcing Zelinsky hand to take action now, probably because Russia sees Zelensky and KY in charge of the key regime, political and military as far better for them than ny, whom was not a brilliant military commander, but perhaps not an entirely incompetent one either.
Dr Leon (50:36):
Switching gears, the cradle is reporting US proxies fear, Afghan style withdrawal from Syria. The Syrian democratic force is the SDF. They're fearing that their US patrons will abandon them in favor of closer ties with Turk, what's happening here with the US military, their Kurdish proxies occupying northeast Syria and fearing a Afghan like pullout. Is that a serious cause for concern?
Mark Sleboda (51:13):
I mean, that has been a serious cause for concern since 2016, right? The Kurds have been thrown different Kurds, but Kurds have been thrown under the bus by the US government after having been turned into proxies again and again by the United States in Iraq multiple times in Syria, previously against Turkey. Turkey
Dr Leon (51:38):
Going all the way back to HW Bush,
Mark Sleboda (51:40):
Yes,
Dr Leon (51:42):
Throwing the Kurds under the bus. Yes,
Mark Sleboda (51:44):
It's primary routine, which really amazes me that Kurds keep willing to be US proxies when they see the long history, not just of the US abandoning proxies like say in Afghanistan, but the US specifically abandoning Kurdish proxies before and abandoning these same Kurdish proxies. When Turkey advanced into northern Syria, they still, of course controlled northern Syria while the US illegally military occupies East Syria. They with just withdrew their forces and said, we're not going to defend you. Sorry. You should probably pull back or the Turks will wipe you up. I mean, that has already happened. The Turks regard the SDF as the YPG, the Syrian branch of the PKK, which is opposed to the Turkish government and fighting for the cause of a Kurdish ethnic nation state that would have to be carved out of parts of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and perhaps Iran. They are the biggest ethnic people in the world that do not have a nation state.
(52:55)
And it was inevitable that at some point, if the US failed to overthrow the government in Damascus with their jihadi regime change, that they would at some point leave East Syria and they haven't done so yet. And despite the rumors to the contrary, I don't expect them to do so in the near future, but it is inevitable at some point is you can't maintain an open-ended occupation of a very large amount of territory forever, despite sitting on the Syrias valuable oil and wheat fields preventing the economic stabilization of the country seemingly out of spite geopolitical spite. If nothing else, you can't maintain this forever, especially with the increase in the number of attacks on US bases in Syria and Iraq from local resistance groups like Katai, Hezbollah who don't want the US occupying their countries, right, meaning Syria and Iraq. There's certainly a cost that has to be paid there, but the cost is still not extremely high, and Biden already being seen as responsible for the disastrous Vietnam style withdrawal from Afghanistan leading the Taliban to completely retake the country in rather embarrassing fashion.
(54:40)
He does not want to be seen the same role in Syria, I think certainly not in the next year. Perhaps if he wins reelection against all odds, then there might be a possibility in his next administration. But a word of warning, if we do see Biden moving troops out of Syria and Iraq, the reason would probably be that they intend to strike Iran and they're moving their forces out of the range of Iranian ballistic missiles that would target them if that happened. There's a history of us withdrawals preceding attacks elsewhere when the US pulled out of Afghanistan. We found out later from the US Secretary of State that withdrawing from Afghanistan allowed the US to provide the resources to the Kiev regime in Ukraine that they would not have been able to do otherwise. So it seems that they already had intentions towards that regard, so watch it. If Biden does pull out of Syria, it may not actually be good for the Syrians or for anyone else in the region. It might actually be a signal that the US intends to escalate towards Iran.
Dr Leon (56:08):
Is there a possibility in terms of signaling here that we look at, of course, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah is now talking about escalating in terms of coming through Lebanon. If this thing were to grow even more full, great even more bringing Iran in, you've got Ansar Allah in the game, does Syria get in the game as well? And so could the United States move out of Syria, be in preparation for a larger conflagration of that nature?
Mark Sleboda (56:52):
Yeah, I don't see that. First of all, I think the US and Iran are still doing everything possible to avoid direct conflict with each other, hence the stand down by Katai Hezbollah saying they wouldn't attack US military bases any further. And it is actually Israel who is talking about escalating against Hezbollah in Lebanon. I think the US and Iran are both doing everything they can to maintain their state's dignity and still dance around each other, avoiding direct conflict in the Middle East. That said, Israel is doing everything possible to incite conflict between the US and Iran, which makes that a non guarantee. But the Syrian government is in a very weak position economically. The US is still illegally occupying the entirety of the east of the country, including the country's oil and wheat resources. The country is, the government is unstable, it's economic, very hard times, and Turkey is still occupying the entirety of the north of the country, and they still have a hundred thousand jihadi under arms occupying those territories in northern Syria. And of course the US military occupation forces alongside the Kurdish YPG in East Syria. The Syrian government is in no geopolitical or military shape to contribute to a fight. I do not see this blowing up because no one wants to go to war with the US over Gaza. No one except for our sala.
Dr Leon (58:45):
Final question for you. The United States relative to Syria developing stronger ties with Toa, how can the US make Reproachment in this manner when Erdowan is so erratic and undependable?
Mark Sleboda (59:05):
Yeah, I don't think they can. Does
Dr Leon (59:06):
That make sense?
Mark Sleboda (59:08):
Yeah. I think Erdowan has become a perennial thorn in their side that they constantly need to keep appeased to prevent him from, shall we say, flipping into the bricks Eurasian camp, and Erdogan routinely plays the US and Russia off of each other to what he sees as his country's advantage. The US support of the Kurds in East Syria, of course, has infuriated him, as has the US withdrawal of the F 35 program from Turkey when Erdogan bought the S 400 Air defense system
Dr Leon (59:50):
From Russia,
Mark Sleboda (59:51):
Yes, from Russia, he also regards the US as at least being, if not complicit, then at least having knowledge of the coup attempt against him several years ago. Very bad relations there. The US cannot rely on Turkey and Turkey. Well, it sees itself as being betrayed by the United States. I don't see any ability to improve relations between the two until there is regime change perhaps in the United States, but more than likely it will require Erdogan passing on one way or another for a substantial change in Turkish US relations.
Dr Leon (01:00:37):
I know I said that was my last question, but this is my last question. Since you mentioned the coup in Turk a few years ago, Golan is still, I believe, somewhere in Pennsylvania at a property in Pennsylvania. Are you surprised that he has not been turned over to Turk as a way of appeasing erdowan, and do you think that Golan can be fairly confident that he's not going to be turned over as a fig leaf for better relations?
Mark Sleboda (01:01:16):
Yeah, I think the US constantly sees him as a bit of leverage. The US likes to keep shadow governments in place for just about every country in the world. Somewhere in the United States, leaders forces
Dr Leon (01:01:30):
The Shah's Sun is still roaming around Northern
Mark Sleboda (01:01:32):
Virginia. The Shah's son, Joe Biden just declared Yulia Navalny and then Yolanda, whoever she is, to be the new leader of the Russian opposition. You've got Juan Gau still out there. This is actually absolutely normal. There are entire communities outside Langley that are just exist of us backed shadow governments ready, waiting to be installed in foreign countries. But I have to say that I don't actually think the Golan movement had anything to do with the coup against Erdogan that occurred several years ago. This was almost entirely, once again, a military attempt to restore a kaist state in Turkey against Erdogan's Islamism. It was just sprung early by the Turkish government under what it believed to be controlled conditions, and then rather than admitting a secular Islamist divide in the country, they simply blamed it on a convenience scapegoat, which was the ING gong. I don't think that he actually had anything to do with that QI think that's just a rather vocal if unconvincing bit of Turkish propaganda that everyone has just played along with. So as not to anger Erdogan. In fact, the Russian president when asked about it a couple of years ago, when asked about their responsibility for the coup, his comments were pretty much to the point of if Erdogan says that's what happened, who am I to say otherwise?
Dr Leon (01:03:26):
Mark Sloboda, man, thank you so much. I always appreciate you carving out the time for me and for the show that you do. Mark Shada, really appreciate you joining me today.
Mark Sleboda (01:03:38):
Thanks for having me.
Dr Leon (01:03:40):
And folks, thank you all so much for listening to the Connecting the Dots podcast with me, Dr. Wiler Leon. Stay tuned for new episodes every week. Also, please, please follow and subscribe, leave a review, share the show. We're growing tremendously, but we can only grow as you allow us to follow us on social media. You can find all the links below in the show description. And remember, folks, that this is where the analysis of politics, culture, and history converge because talk without analysis is just chatter, and we do not chatter on connecting the dots. See you again next time. Until then, I'm Dr. Wier Leon. Have a great one. Peace. We're out
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Announcer (00:06):
Connecting the dots with Dr. Wilmer Leon, where the analysis of politics, culture, and history converge.
Dr Leon (00:14):
Welcome to the Connecting the Dots podcast with Dr. Wilmer Leon. I am Wilmer Leon. Here's the point. We have a tendency to view current events as though they occur in a vacuum, failing to see the broader historical context in which events take place. During each episode of this program, my guests and I have probing, provocative, and in-depth discussions that connect the dots between current events and the broader historic context in which they occur. This enables you to better understand and analyze the events that impact the global village in which we live on today's episode. The issue before us is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and why does the United States keep throwing good taxpayer dollars after bad. To discuss this, we are joined by my guest Mark Sloboda. He's a Moscow based international relations and security analyst. Mark, as always, welcome back
Mark Sleboda (01:18):
Dr. Leon. Thanks for having me. It's always an honor and a pleasure to be on connecting the dots.
Dr Leon (01:23):
So it's been reported that an attack on a convoy of Ukrainian military equipment in the esque people's Republic was carried out with the use of short range ballistic missiles. And it also seems as though with all of this hand wringing in the US Congress about funding for Ukraine, all the US and NATO is doing, or seems to be doing, is sending more targets for Russia to destroy your thoughts, mark.
Mark Sleboda (01:52):
Yeah, there's some rather dramatic developments really under-reported in the Western press that have very large implications going forward for the conflict in Ukraine. The current situation on the ground, I think the Western mainstream media has finally their propaganda narrative bubble has finally burst. Look, in a span of how short a period of time we have gone from Ukraine is winning to
(02:34)
Stalemate, it's a stalemate on the battlefield to, oh my God, we're losing to Nigeria with snow. I mean, that's the rather dramatic change in the propaganda narrative, and I think we can see it reflected in the political elite as well with the panic and desperation that is starting to sit in and become rather obvious among European leaders who really have the most to lose from this conflict, rather other than the Kiev regime in Ukraine itself. And this all occurs, these latest incidents in the final weeks of and the aftermath of the Russian breakthrough of the Kiev regime's most heavily fortified fortress city, these extensive defenses and fortifications trenches, concrete bunkers, pill boxes, networks of tunnels, layers of minefields, you name it, Inca, which is really quite close to Dan City, and a western journalist a couple of years ago already referred to it rather poetically if quite awfully as a knife pointed at the heart of Dansk.
(04:10)
They meant that in a good way. Another way, of course, looking at it was a Jack boot pressed to the neck of the people of Donbass because it is from aca and the settlements shielded behind it that the Ki regime forces brutally shelled the people of Dansk for the last decade pretty much regularly. They didn't shell military facilities, they shelled civilian areas with artillery, with cluster munitions, with pedal mines. And this was to punish the people of done bus for choosing wrong, for not accepting the overthrow of the government by the Westback Maan butch back in 2014, and with the intention with driving Russian ethnic people who did not accept the new Ukraine into Russia. That was the intention and one of the primary reasons for the Russian intervention in the Ukrainian civil conflict, not the only one. There were security concerns as well, but this was loudly voiced as well.
(05:22)
And when the Russians broke through it aga, they did it rather dramatically towards the end. It ended up much shorter than say the siege of Bach Mu, despite the defenses in a DKA being considerably stronger, and this is because of a sea change on the battlefield. The KI regime's initial a integrated Soviet legacy air defense network, the backbone of which was the formidable S 300 systems had been largely deteriorated at this point already a few months ago. And on top of what hadn't been destroyed, they were absolutely out of interceptor missiles for it, and there were none left in countries that are now part of the west former Eastern Bloc countries. Their supplies were all exhausted. So there was an attempt to put together a hodgepodge piece meal air defense system not properly integrated with using Western systems, but that has also been attributed away over the last few months.
(06:35)
Russia launched an extensive campaign over the winter, and that was a primary target of their missile and drone campaign. So in afca, Russia fully unleashed the fab guided glide bombs on these defenses. And these are old dumb munitions with smart glide kits that turn them into precision weapons being able to fire from air at a distance of tens of kilometers. And because these are bombs, not artillery shells, they have a considerably bigger payload. They come in 500, 1000 and 1500 kilogram capacities and they just annihilate. I mean, if the Ki regime turns, say what they did pretty much to every building in the city, turning it into a mini fortress that has to be individually stormed one fab bomb, and it's gone. And particularly at the larger end, the 1500, they have an incredibly demoralizing effect on anyone within the radius of experiencing the explosion, the concussion and the like.
(07:57)
And in the closing days of a dka, according to the Russian Ministry of Defense, they dropped over 500 of these, oh my God, on the fortresses in just the last few days, right? So that's why they collapsed so quickly and dramatically at the end and why there was such a route. And they're able to do this now because they can fly with a considerable degree of impunity over the battlefield because first, the Soviet legacy and now the Western Air Defense system sent us a replacement, have largely been destroyed. And immediately in the aftermath of Dfca, the Russian forces far from being exhausted, as many Western military analysts drinking their own propaganda Kool-Aid tried to claim claiming high casualties as they always do without evidence to back it up other than the say so of the regime in Kiev. Russian forces were not exhausted because they had not suffered any considerable attrition because they had been standing off and dropping an extremely large bombs from Sue, 30 fours from fighter bombers on ev dca, which is what did at least at the end the majority of their work for them once they were already ensconced in the outskirts of the city.
(09:24)
So they continued on fallback positions in the next line of villages that Kiev regime forces had retreated to and were hastily trying to dig themselves in because they had not built proper defenses. And for instance, Laska and Severna lasted two or three days, and as Russia moved on the second line of villages even further, and we faced a real breakthrough in the Kiev regime defensive lines at this point, the Kiev regime became desperate to try to at least slow down. We're not even talking stop, but to slow down the Russian advance to give themselves more time to hastily dig as the Western headlines have now been talking about what the Kiv regime needs to do to dig new trenches, to dig new fortifications. So they moved a large number of what air defense systems they had left elsewhere in the country into an area far too close to the battlefield.
(10:32)
And Russia at this point, not only of course, enjoys air superiority over the contact line, but they also enjoy drone superiority. And Russia has put a rather larger number of military satellites into the orbit in the last year, last few months that have started to come online. So they were able to track these air defense systems fairly well, and it's more than just three patriot launchers that have been destroyed. Also, one of the remaining older S 300 air defense systems, several NASS air defense systems supplied by the US and Norway, and also a number of books and smaller systems. By my count at least 11 air defense systems have been destroyed in the last two weeks over the area immediately to the west of F dca. And this is adding to the butcher's bill. Previously, the Kev regime has adopted a new tactic in several areas.
(11:50)
We saw it over the sea of, we saw it also in Belgo where that Ill 76 transport plane shut down the KI regime shut down its own plane full of prisoners of war A couple of months ago, if you remember forced to admit it, they've been sending in an attempt to try to stop the Russian dominance of the skies. They've tried to use essentially not mobile air defense systems in a mobile capacity to set up ambushes for Russian planes to instill a degree of caution and restraint. But that has proven very costly for them because they've also lost air defense systems in that way as well, because of course, Russia was actively hunting them down and despite their claims to have shut down large numbers of Russian aircraft, there is zero evidence providing this zero. I mean, and there have been plenty of evidence, for instance, of the Kev regime's own aircraft, remaining aircraft being shot down when they're shot down.
(13:06)
There is video footage, there is air wreckage and the like. So really questionable claims they may have sacrificed other than this, of course, the POW plane, which everyone noticed, but that was an undefended transport plane flying in what it assumed a mission of peace bringing POWs for an exchange. So they've lost a huge degree of whatever hodgepodge air defense they had left. Now, Forbes speaking just of the events in F dca, not of the rest of it, says that just in those engagements that the Kev regime lost 13% of its air defense capacity speaking specifically of the Patriot systems provided to it. And that's on paper because they're not acknowledging earlier patriot systems that have been shot down. So I would suggest that they have at this point lost far more. They probably have a number of patriot launchers in the single digits left in Kiev, for instance, possibly in Odessa.
(14:22)
But the implications of this going forward is that Russian use of air superiority and even now close air support over the contact line is going to dramatically increase because there is no air defense left to deal with them, which means the pace of Russian advances are going to increase. And this is when even Western analysts and Ukrainians are talking about rather large concentrations of Russian forces behind the lines that have been built up but not committed yet. And there is the suspicion that they're going to launch a large scale big arrow offensive sometime later this year. In fact, the Kiev regime has just in the past week evacuated the entirety of Harko region. Some 85 settlements ordered the civilian evacuation because they fear a big offensive in the harko direction in the coming probably months, perhaps weeks.
Dr Leon (15:36):
President Biden told us during his State of the Union address that Ukraine can stop Putin, Ukraine can stop Putin if we stand with Ukraine and provide the weapons that it needs to defend itself. That's all he says. In fact, there are no American soldiers at war in Ukraine. My question is, who's operating these US supplied Patriot air defense systems and are there US special forces trainers that are on the ground training these forces?
Mark Sleboda (16:14):
Okay, so first to the last point, Joe Biden is lying genocide. Joe is flat up lying and we know it because the Western mainstream media has told us already in the summer of 2022 in the New York Times and the Washington Post talking about unusually large numbers of US intelligence and US and European commandos on the ground in Ukraine. Then later we heard there were hundreds of uniformed US troops on the ground, again from the western mainstream media that were doing tracking of Western supplied weapons. Now, if that's really what they were doing, then they weren't doing a very good job because it was only weeks after that we heard that the West couldn't track these weapons at all. So I mean either they were completely incompetent or they are doing something else on the ground
Dr Leon (17:15):
On top of them. Wait a minute, are these also, aren't these the same stories that a lot of these weapons are showing up in other battles in other countries?
Mark Sleboda (17:24):
Yes. Yes. With the idea that a tithe essentially of Western weapons is being sold through corruption in the Ukrainian military and the distribution networks off because of the prevalent corruption in the country to pad their own pockets. And then I don't think there's anything question about that. The Western mainstream media has long reported about that. In fact, early on, CBS noted that some 70% of the weapons supplied by the west were not reading the front lines. This was early on in the conflict. So on top of those commandos, we now the Russian government has long complained that these high-tech systems supplied by the west from the US in particular the high Mars and multiple launch rocket systems in the Patriot air defense systems, as well as some French air defense systems, Polish crab artillery systems, British storm shadows, cruise missiles, that these are all being operated by western military specialists who are being sent there under the guise of mercenaries or humanitarian and aid workers and the like, because it is impossible to train the Kiev regime forces in such a short period of time to operate these advanced western systems.
(19:09)
The Russian government's been saying this for a considerable amount of time, but this was confirmed by no less a person than the German chancellor Olaf Schultz, who in an apparent spat back and forth with the French leader, Emmanuel Macron, and to the British as well, when the British were pressuring Germany to deliver the Taurus missiles, the context of Ola Schultz is we can't do what the British, the French, and the Americans are doing and have people obliquely. He admitted that the West had their military forces on the ground operating their systems and that Germany could not be seen as doing that. And this was reinforced in these leaked military calls from the German Air Force planning, a series of cruise missile attacks inside Russia with the expected to be delivered towards cruise missile system, at least expected by them. The political elites in Germany aren't saying that, but they also revealed that the German cruise missiles could perhaps be operated on the ground by the rather large number of Americans of people on the ground wearing civilian clothes with American accents, which of course is a roundabout way of saying US military personnel not in uniform on the ground in Ukraine.
(20:58)
So I mean, they just have to
Dr Leon (20:59):
Be curious from Kansas that are wandering the fields and the step of Germany and Russia and Ukraine.
Mark Sleboda (21:07):
Yeah, they're not wearing boots. They're wearing ballet slippers or figure skates or something, I guess. So that's a lie. Second of all, the Kim regime can defeat. Well, Ukraine can beat Putin, right? The childish way that western leaders and media try to demonize any opponent down to just one leader and so forth. But if that was true, if Western military aid in Ukrainian regime hands was enough to beat Russia, then what happened over their failed summer counter offensive that was armed trained, financed intelligence planned and war gamed out by nato, primarily US by the Pentagon, that's who did it. They failed. They failed badly. They were mauled. They never even got past the first of Russia's five echelon defensive lines and suffered horrible casualties in the process. No one denies that. So there is no indication that however additional tens of billions of dollars of aid are sent that the West will ever again able to build an offensive force like they did for Ukraine in the summer offensive because they simply don't have the weapons in inventory to replace everything like that.
(22:50)
They do have some things, they got plenty of Bradleys if they want. Obviously they're very reticent to allow the rather small number of Abrams that they've sent to be used in combat. Four of them have been destroyed after just appearing on the battlefield in the last week. But the rest of the Western militaries that supplied weapons, they're tapped out. France, Germany, Denmark, the United Kingdom, they've all said, we can't supply anymore because we've already dug past our stockpiles into our own military supplies and we can't replace these systems fast enough. For instance, one French Caesar self-propelled Howitzer, a total of 36 of these between France and Denmark were supplied to the Kiev regime for the course of that offensive. And they're practically through all of them, they have very few of them left because Russia's been hunting them down. And also they are subjected to considerable wear and tear, and they're not actually built for high intensity combat like this, much like the US' M triple sevens and the Paladins and the like. But it takes the French 18 months, the French military industrial complex, 18 months. 18 months
Dr Leon (24:20):
To
Mark Sleboda (24:21):
Build one
Dr Leon (24:22):
That's a year and a half
Mark Sleboda (24:23):
One Caesar. But we heard that they have shortened that time to 15 months. Oh
Dr Leon (24:30):
Wow. That makes me feel a whole lot better. You just mentioned the leaked recordings from the German Air Force, and is it a coincidence that after these conversations were leaked where the Germans were talking about taking out bridges in Russia with cruise missiles that Victoria Newland resigns because there are some who say that her name was mentioned in on these tapes and that the German Air Force officers were really talking about conversations either they had with her or ideas that she was presenting about these attacks inside Russia?
Mark Sleboda (25:16):
Yeah, there's a possibility there, and if that is the situation, then it appears that she was probably forced out by the Biden administration. But are I think there are other considerations in play. Victoria Newland, the Queen NeoCon of the us, she's married to Robert Kagan who is the arch NeoCon of the United States. Robert Kagan, his books, check them out if you're unfamiliar with his sinister work. I would say she has long dominated through several presidencies US policy towards Ukraine. She was instrumental in the actual Westpac, my Don pooch, if not the key architect of it. She was caught on recordings with then US Ambassador Jeffrey Piat, talking about how they needed to midwife this thing, bring then Obama's Vice President Joe Biden into midwife it picking the new Prime Minister of Ukraine, Arsen Ya from the leaders, the figurehead leaders of the Maidan, and then famously saying F, the when the idea that the Europeans might want someone else for Ukraine's next prime minister was presented. So I mean she's been instrumental and she briefly left office during the Trump administration and then came right back. She has been serving as under Secretary for political affairs, which despite the rather kafkaesque bureaucratic name is actually the third highest official within the US Department of War. I'm sorry, not the US Department of War, US Department of State. My bad.
Dr Leon (27:23):
I can understand the confusion.
Mark Sleboda (27:24):
I said the difference. Yeah, she a third highest official and she was actually operating as the second highest official just below the Secretary of State for about a half of year when Wendy Sherman, the previous Deputy Secretary of State stepped down. So she was doing the number two and number three job and it was widely expected that she would be permanently assigned to that position, a permanently elevated to Deputy Secretary of State. But we found out that just a month ago she was passed over for this position by Kirk Campbell. The Biden approved someone else, and Kirk Campbell is an Asia specialist. He's a specialist on China, which to my mind tells me that the Biden administration is tiring of this conflict in Ukraine and they're already looking past it despite the bad situation. Their proxy regime is in to China, which may indicate a planned change of policy or at least prioritization or at the very least an unwillingness to escalate further, I say may.
Dr Leon (28:48):
So does that mean then that the Biden administration is now following along the previous Obama administration's tilt towards Asia?
Mark Sleboda (29:02):
Yeah, that's entirely possible. I believe that's what the Biden administration always wanted to do. They wanted the Middle East to remain quiet and it was not a priority for them. That didn't go out down so well. Just a week before the October 7th, seventh launching of the all Axel flood operation by Hamas on Israel, Jake Sullivan was in an essay talking about how nice and quiet the Middle East was, which allowed the US to concentrate on other areas. Well, that didn't go so well then since then. But they wanted the Middle East to be quiet. They expected to finish off Russia quickly. They expected their sanctions to destroy the Russian economy, Putin to be overthrown, and because of the economic commiseration of the country
Dr Leon (29:58):
They wrong
Mark Sleboda (30:00):
And that they would now, their biggest concern would be dividing up Russia into smaller pieces and how to go about that. That appears to have been their plan. Okay, so not so good on the plan thing, but then they hoped they thought that would be finished quickly and then to pivot hard to China. I think that was always their plan to finish Russia off quickly, ignore the Middle East and pivot hard to China. And none of that, of course has gone according to plan. So with A and B having failed, they're trying to go to C anyway in very likely the months at this point that they have remaining to them. And I think that the passing over of Victoria Newland for that is a sign that the Biden administration is already lost interest, possibly due to inability to achieve their desired goals and is shifting to the next goals that they can't probably accomplish even more so I would say if they think that they're going to defeat China in some type of conflict off of their own coast in the Taiwan Straits and South China Sea. But anyway, I expect that Victoria Newland was extremely unhappy about being passed over. She was probably, she can see the bureaucratic writing on the wall that the prioritization is changing away from her reason for existence, which is fighting Russia. And I think that that probably at least as much if not more so played a role in her deciding to quit or being forced out. We don't know the real truth of that yet, although I imagine that she won't be able to keep her mouth shut forever on that score
Dr Leon (31:51):
Or her husband. So political reports that France finds Baltic allies in its spat with Germany over Ukraine troop deployment, that France is building up an alliance of countries to open potentially that are open to potentially sending Western troops to Ukraine. That Mark sounds to me like there's a lot of tension within nato. And going again back to President Biden State of the Union, he told us America is a founding member of nato, the Military Alliance of Democratic Nations, and that to prevent war, we've made NATO even stronger, which is the point that I was trying to get to about this element of his speech that we've made NATO even stronger, and now he also assigns or attributes Finland joining NATO as evidence of NATO's strength. It doesn't sound like, it doesn't sound like it's all good in
Mark Sleboda (32:59):
Yeah, I mean definitely. I mean, Hungary and Slovakia of course are the most egregious examples of this because they are completely against the proxy war now being fought on Russia in Ukraine completely. They won't have anything to do with it. But yeah, there are definitely, I think tensions and cracks emerging and a bit of a panicked blame game going on right now with different European countries all trying to blame each other saying You haven't done enough. And with Macron coming out now in the aftermath of the taking of a DKA coming out and openly talking about putting NATO troops on the ground, I think this is not something that is a secret, something that has not been discussed for, and something that contingency plans are not already in place to do in the future. They just aren't in a political situation to have it said out loud. Now, I think that's the real problem that Germany and other countries have. It's causing them, no one is ready to do it now, and the fact that it has been brought up now, they see as politically detrimental to them in their own countries
Dr Leon (34:29):
As in the farmers' protests in Germany,
Mark Sleboda (34:32):
Yeah, in Poland, yes, Poland. I mean there are protests across Europe, but also, yes, the fragile coalition government in Germany, the rise of the A FD, the alternative for Germany, the alternative for Deutsche Man, yeah, party in Germany. These are all blowback from the European involvement in the conflict in Ukraine, and they just did not need this. Now, I think Macron has pointed out two things. One is that levels of escalation in this conflict, red lines that we will not cross in terms of escalation have been passed again and again and again. I remember back in February and March of 2022 when Joe Biden saying that US tanks and jets us would never supply tanks and jets to Ukraine because that would mean World War iii, right? But US tanks are now burning in the urban agglomerations of the Donez region, and US F sixteens are supposedly on their way within the next couple of months to the Kiev regime.
(35:55)
So again and again, these lines have been crossed, and I believe this line will be crossed eventually, but not yet. The second point, and Macron pointed this out, what we once thought was unacceptable has become normal operations repeatedly during this conflict as they've crawled further up or down the escalation ladder, however you choose to look at it. And he also then made a point that when French troops might be sent into Ukraine, when Russian forces move on Kiev or Odessa, which is most likely some time away, probably more than a year, maybe longer than that. So yeah, I mean, right now fighting Russia has a lot of advantages on the battlefield, but big advances can still be measured in a handful of kilometers, a tree line, a small village.
(37:04)
The writing is on the wall in terms of the logistics of a war of attrition and everything, but I think there's still a lot of hard ground slogging into the future. Macron sees that as well, so they're panicking now. I think he's right that when Russia moves towards Kia or Odessa, there will be probably greater support for his suggestions, but we've already seen support from the Baltics. The Baltic leaders have come out and said, yes, we're ready to send the handful of troops that we have now, because if there's anything the Baltics country need is to come out on the losing end of this conflict, having sent their own troops to war with Russia and having a NATO either fall apart or turned into a toothless tiger as a result of this really, really bad geopolitical move to my mind. I mean, because they're of course the most vulnerable.
(38:05)
They've got large populations of Russian ethnic populations that they have been rather seriously politically and linguistically culturally repressing, particularly over the last two years, even trying to expel as many Russian ethnic people from their countries as they can, practically inviting some type of Russian backed efforts against those governments in the Baltics, really not a smart move, but also Poland has made the Polish foreign minister Sikorsky back again, by the way, has also seemed to suggest contrary to statements by the Polish president, that at some point down the line, Polish troops could be sent into Ukraine and also Canada. Trudeau has also volunteered Canadian troops as well in non-combat roles of course, because that's what you do with your military troops. You send them into a conflict zone
Dr Leon (39:16):
Very as non-combatants
Mark Sleboda (39:19):
Like trainers. First you have trainers and advisors, then you have non-combatants. We know the way this goes, so obviously there is already, and check the Czech president has also suggested he is a former NATO official himself, a very big hawk on Russia, and he has also hedged his words and seemed to suggest that Czech might be able to consider it. So these are countries who are already coming out and we're just past aca, which is really only about 12 kilometers away from Donis city, right? I mean, there's a lot more to come and the panic and desperation will increase, and I think Macron will definitely find more countries down the road when it becomes completely impossible to deny as it will become in the future, the writing on the wall that the regime cannot hold militarily. The New York Times has already talked about the possibility, and I think it's a very strong possibility of later this year cascading collapses along the Kiev regime's, defensive lines, not me, but the New York Times has raised that as is talking to anonymous western military intelligence analysts about the probable course of the Ukrainian battlefield over the next half a year.
Dr Leon (40:51):
We mentioned Sweden joining NATO and Finland has joined nato, and we know about the very strong and robust social programs that those countries have because they, up until this point, have had a position of neutrality in conflict, which means they haven't had to send the public resources over to a defense budget. Now that that seems to be changing, are we looking at Finland and Sweden as having to shift those resources? We now see more NeoCon policy as well as what we'll call austerity measures. Can we expect austerity measures to creep their way into social policy in Finland and in Sweden?
Mark Sleboda (41:49):
Yeah, inevitably, I think we've already seen it to a certain degree. They've already, of course, suffered heavy economic consequences from their own sanctions on Russia, probably more significant than have been experienced by the Russian economy. Finland in particular did a very good cross border business. I was on the Finnish Russian border just a year ago at kind of a wilderness vacation place on the border there, well, actually a couple of years ago before the conflict, but very nice, and it was normal to cross the border from Russia and Finland to go to the store, for instance. Someone had this better, someone had that better, and there was a great deal of cross border business that has immensely suffered as a result already hurting the finish economy. The Swedes have suffered the same thing, perhaps to a lesser degree without sharing an open border, but experienced it as well, and now, I mean they've exhausted a great deal.
(42:58)
Finland and Sweden have both provided outsized military resources to the Kiev regime already, and those resources like so much else, are largely gone. They're either up in smoke or filtered away in the Kiev regime's corruption, so on top of the Kiev regime, of course, loudly demanding more, more, they also have to replenish their own military stocks, and now they have to militarize their own borders, which were UNM militarized, particularly in the case of Finland, which has a very large border. It was demilitarized, it was not a militarized border. There was police presence, but it was not a militarized border that is now changing and of course, facing the prospect of Finland joining NATO and US forces on finished soil, Russia has reordered, completely changed military districting on the border there and provided tens of thousands of new troops to be placed on the border as having to potentially deal with US troops being stationed in Finland as defensive contingencies, Finland is going to bear an increased burden with military. I do not see how this makes them more secure than they were before. I mean, they weren't targeted with nuclear missiles, and now they will be.
(44:36)
I guess that is the price of joining the cool Western Kids Club in nato, which it seems that the Finnish political elite wanted more than not creating economic and military problems with their much larger southern neighbor.
Dr Leon (44:57):
I read a story recently that elite units of Ukrainian armed forces are discussing overthrowing zelensky. Is that a rumor? Any traction of that story there in Moscow and any insight into commanders and soldiers in elite units of the Ukrainian armed forces? They're dissatisfied with the reshuffling of the leadership and they're talking about ousting VMI Zelensky.
Mark Sleboda (45:30):
Yeah. When Zelensky got rid of zany, and let's be clear, this didn't happen because of his military failures on the battlefield. It was done for political reasons because he saw zany as a threat as possibly running for president himself for staging a military coup and the possibility there were plenty of signs that the US was actually for a time considering switching horses, which is why he forbade elections in Ukraine, citing the martial law emergency powers, and so that he didn't have to face zny in an election, which the polls say he would've lost because zany has more support in the country than he does now. He didn't only get rid of ny, he got rid of whole streams of top down to low level commanders who were seen as loyal to ny. There was a huge reshuffling or replacement of Ukrainian of the Kev regime's military leaders. As a result of this, there's a lot of embittered military people because of this. We don't need to look in secret telegram chat rooms to hear this discussion because
Dr Leon (46:56):
Regime, which is where this story was originally attributable, yeah, the
Mark Sleboda (47:00):
Story is sourced from here, but there have already been open public statements by Kiev regime, military commanders on the battlefield saying to the Ukrainian journalists, this is wrong. There was a list signed by hundreds of Ukrainian military commanders serving on the battlefield, a petition asking Zelensky to get rid of Ky, whom he chose to replace Zelensky, whom is known as the
Dr Leon (47:38):
Butcher, the butcher
Mark Sleboda (47:40):
By his own forces, not because of the opponents that he kills, but because of his careless attitude towards the lives of his own people. So they made an
Dr Leon (47:54):
That's not a good moniker. As a commander, you don't want your own forces seeing you in the light of butchering them.
Mark Sleboda (48:04):
Yeah, I mean, my military experience tells me that that would not be the type of military commander that I wanted. Certainly, and I seriously doubt that they do as well. Plus Sirki is actually ethnic Russian. He was born in Russia in the Soviet Union. His family still lives in Russia, and they're actually quite Russian patriotic, so it's a rather bizarre situation, and in many ways there's a lot of
Dr Leon (48:30):
Parallels. It makes for a tough Christmas dinner.
Mark Sleboda (48:32):
I don't think it makes for a Christmas dinner at all. I'm pretty sure, and there are definitely parallels with the US Civil War to be drawn there and with so many other families across Russia and Ukraine. But yeah, they've made demands of Zelensky public demands that they replace, that they bring back zany and get rid of ky, and of course that was ignored and large numbers of those commanders were replaced. But if they're discussing it openly and he's already taking this vengeful action against them, there's no great surprise that they are talking about it in what they believe to be secret chat rooms about taking it into their own hands. It's rather interesting, of course, that the Russian intelligence chose to make this public because if they have penetrated this chat room, you can be totally sure that the key regime's military intelligence, let's say Ka bov loyal to Zelinsky, has penetrated this as well, and by going public with it, Russia might be forcing Zelinsky hand to take action against these coup plotting, even if it's in the very nascent, we hate this guy, why can't we get rid of him? Stage of, shall we say, trash talk. It might be forcing Zelinsky hand to take action now, probably because Russia sees Zelensky and KY in charge of the key regime, political and military as far better for them than ny, whom was not a brilliant military commander, but perhaps not an entirely incompetent one either.
Dr Leon (50:36):
Switching gears, the cradle is reporting US proxies fear, Afghan style withdrawal from Syria. The Syrian democratic force is the SDF. They're fearing that their US patrons will abandon them in favor of closer ties with Turk, what's happening here with the US military, their Kurdish proxies occupying northeast Syria and fearing a Afghan like pullout. Is that a serious cause for concern?
Mark Sleboda (51:13):
I mean, that has been a serious cause for concern since 2016, right? The Kurds have been thrown different Kurds, but Kurds have been thrown under the bus by the US government after having been turned into proxies again and again by the United States in Iraq multiple times in Syria, previously against Turkey. Turkey
Dr Leon (51:38):
Going all the way back to HW Bush,
Mark Sleboda (51:40):
Yes,
Dr Leon (51:42):
Throwing the Kurds under the bus. Yes,
Mark Sleboda (51:44):
It's primary routine, which really amazes me that Kurds keep willing to be US proxies when they see the long history, not just of the US abandoning proxies like say in Afghanistan, but the US specifically abandoning Kurdish proxies before and abandoning these same Kurdish proxies. When Turkey advanced into northern Syria, they still, of course controlled northern Syria while the US illegally military occupies East Syria. They with just withdrew their forces and said, we're not going to defend you. Sorry. You should probably pull back or the Turks will wipe you up. I mean, that has already happened. The Turks regard the SDF as the YPG, the Syrian branch of the PKK, which is opposed to the Turkish government and fighting for the cause of a Kurdish ethnic nation state that would have to be carved out of parts of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and perhaps Iran. They are the biggest ethnic people in the world that do not have a nation state.
(52:55)
And it was inevitable that at some point, if the US failed to overthrow the government in Damascus with their jihadi regime change, that they would at some point leave East Syria and they haven't done so yet. And despite the rumors to the contrary, I don't expect them to do so in the near future, but it is inevitable at some point is you can't maintain an open-ended occupation of a very large amount of territory forever, despite sitting on the Syrias valuable oil and wheat fields preventing the economic stabilization of the country seemingly out of spite geopolitical spite. If nothing else, you can't maintain this forever, especially with the increase in the number of attacks on US bases in Syria and Iraq from local resistance groups like Katai, Hezbollah who don't want the US occupying their countries, right, meaning Syria and Iraq. There's certainly a cost that has to be paid there, but the cost is still not extremely high, and Biden already being seen as responsible for the disastrous Vietnam style withdrawal from Afghanistan leading the Taliban to completely retake the country in rather embarrassing fashion.
(54:40)
He does not want to be seen the same role in Syria, I think certainly not in the next year. Perhaps if he wins reelection against all odds, then there might be a possibility in his next administration. But a word of warning, if we do see Biden moving troops out of Syria and Iraq, the reason would probably be that they intend to strike Iran and they're moving their forces out of the range of Iranian ballistic missiles that would target them if that happened. There's a history of us withdrawals preceding attacks elsewhere when the US pulled out of Afghanistan. We found out later from the US Secretary of State that withdrawing from Afghanistan allowed the US to provide the resources to the Kiev regime in Ukraine that they would not have been able to do otherwise. So it seems that they already had intentions towards that regard, so watch it. If Biden does pull out of Syria, it may not actually be good for the Syrians or for anyone else in the region. It might actually be a signal that the US intends to escalate towards Iran.
Dr Leon (56:08):
Is there a possibility in terms of signaling here that we look at, of course, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah is now talking about escalating in terms of coming through Lebanon. If this thing were to grow even more full, great even more bringing Iran in, you've got Ansar Allah in the game, does Syria get in the game as well? And so could the United States move out of Syria, be in preparation for a larger conflagration of that nature?
Mark Sleboda (56:52):
Yeah, I don't see that. First of all, I think the US and Iran are still doing everything possible to avoid direct conflict with each other, hence the stand down by Katai Hezbollah saying they wouldn't attack US military bases any further. And it is actually Israel who is talking about escalating against Hezbollah in Lebanon. I think the US and Iran are both doing everything they can to maintain their state's dignity and still dance around each other, avoiding direct conflict in the Middle East. That said, Israel is doing everything possible to incite conflict between the US and Iran, which makes that a non guarantee. But the Syrian government is in a very weak position economically. The US is still illegally occupying the entirety of the east of the country, including the country's oil and wheat resources. The country is, the government is unstable, it's economic, very hard times, and Turkey is still occupying the entirety of the north of the country, and they still have a hundred thousand jihadi under arms occupying those territories in northern Syria. And of course the US military occupation forces alongside the Kurdish YPG in East Syria. The Syrian government is in no geopolitical or military shape to contribute to a fight. I do not see this blowing up because no one wants to go to war with the US over Gaza. No one except for our sala.
Dr Leon (58:45):
Final question for you. The United States relative to Syria developing stronger ties with Toa, how can the US make Reproachment in this manner when Erdowan is so erratic and undependable?
Mark Sleboda (59:05):
Yeah, I don't think they can. Does
Dr Leon (59:06):
That make sense?
Mark Sleboda (59:08):
Yeah. I think Erdowan has become a perennial thorn in their side that they constantly need to keep appeased to prevent him from, shall we say, flipping into the bricks Eurasian camp, and Erdogan routinely plays the US and Russia off of each other to what he sees as his country's advantage. The US support of the Kurds in East Syria, of course, has infuriated him, as has the US withdrawal of the F 35 program from Turkey when Erdogan bought the S 400 Air defense system
Dr Leon (59:50):
From Russia,
Mark Sleboda (59:51):
Yes, from Russia, he also regards the US as at least being, if not complicit, then at least having knowledge of the coup attempt against him several years ago. Very bad relations there. The US cannot rely on Turkey and Turkey. Well, it sees itself as being betrayed by the United States. I don't see any ability to improve relations between the two until there is regime change perhaps in the United States, but more than likely it will require Erdogan passing on one way or another for a substantial change in Turkish US relations.
Dr Leon (01:00:37):
I know I said that was my last question, but this is my last question. Since you mentioned the coup in Turk a few years ago, Golan is still, I believe, somewhere in Pennsylvania at a property in Pennsylvania. Are you surprised that he has not been turned over to Turk as a way of appeasing erdowan, and do you think that Golan can be fairly confident that he's not going to be turned over as a fig leaf for better relations?
Mark Sleboda (01:01:16):
Yeah, I think the US constantly sees him as a bit of leverage. The US likes to keep shadow governments in place for just about every country in the world. Somewhere in the United States, leaders forces
Dr Leon (01:01:30):
The Shah's Sun is still roaming around Northern
Mark Sleboda (01:01:32):
Virginia. The Shah's son, Joe Biden just declared Yulia Navalny and then Yolanda, whoever she is, to be the new leader of the Russian opposition. You've got Juan Gau still out there. This is actually absolutely normal. There are entire communities outside Langley that are just exist of us backed shadow governments ready, waiting to be installed in foreign countries. But I have to say that I don't actually think the Golan movement had anything to do with the coup against Erdogan that occurred several years ago. This was almost entirely, once again, a military attempt to restore a kaist state in Turkey against Erdogan's Islamism. It was just sprung early by the Turkish government under what it believed to be controlled conditions, and then rather than admitting a secular Islamist divide in the country, they simply blamed it on a convenience scapegoat, which was the ING gong. I don't think that he actually had anything to do with that QI think that's just a rather vocal if unconvincing bit of Turkish propaganda that everyone has just played along with. So as not to anger Erdogan. In fact, the Russian president when asked about it a couple of years ago, when asked about their responsibility for the coup, his comments were pretty much to the point of if Erdogan says that's what happened, who am I to say otherwise?
Dr Leon (01:03:26):
Mark Sloboda, man, thank you so much. I always appreciate you carving out the time for me and for the show that you do. Mark Shada, really appreciate you joining me today.
Mark Sleboda (01:03:38):
Thanks for having me.
Dr Leon (01:03:40):
And folks, thank you all so much for listening to the Connecting the Dots podcast with me, Dr. Wiler Leon. Stay tuned for new episodes every week. Also, please, please follow and subscribe, leave a review, share the show. We're growing tremendously, but we can only grow as you allow us to follow us on social media. You can find all the links below in the show description. And remember, folks, that this is where the analysis of politics, culture, and history converge because talk without analysis is just chatter, and we do not chatter on connecting the dots. See you again next time. Until then, I'm Dr. Wier Leon. Have a great one. Peace. We're out
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