Recorded at the CEPR Paris Symposium. In the first of a series of episodes from CEPR’s annual festival of new research, we ask: can artificial intelligence help agencies and governments cope with natural disasters, by making it more practical to take anticipatory action? The topic is the subject of a new policy insight from CEPR, and Tim Phillips speaks to two of the authors: Margherita Philipp and Hannes Mueller about the potential and problems of AI-driven expert systems that can predict where disasters might happen.

A surprising number of children are isolated at school. How can teachers spot this social exclusion, and what can they do to make every child feel included? An intervention in primary schools in Italy gave teachers the information to help them recognise and help isolated children. Michela Carlana of Harvard tells Tim Phillips how identifying the problem can be the first step to solving it. 

After Russia after invaded Ukraine, 45 countries imposed sanctions. Turkiye was among those that did not. Have Turkiye’s exporters filled the gap created by the reduction in exports from other sources? If so, how do they manage the reputational and operational risks in trading with Russia? Giancarlo Corsetti, Banu Demir and Beata Javorcik have used firm-level data to discover whether Turkiye’s firms have been “Trading around geopolitics”. They tell Tim Phillips why imposing trade sanctions can be like “squeezing a balloon”.

Climate change, and policies that governments implement to address it, increasingly have macroeconomic impacts that are relevant for Central banks. But, within their remit, what actions can monetary policymakers take, and what actions should they take? These are questions that Frank Elderson is well qualified to answer. He is a member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank and Vice-Chair of the Supervisory Board of the European Central Bank, he is co-Chair of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Risks of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, and he was the first Chair of the Network of Central Banks and Supervisors for Greening the Financial System. He tells Tim Phillips about the instruments available to the ECB, the contribution of the NGFS, and the limits of monetary policy in addressing the urgent challenge of climate change.

What effect do populist rulers of economic superpowers have on international relations, peace, and inequality? If a populist takes power in one of these countries, does it lead to more conflict in other places? Massimo Morelli describes Donald trump as “The quintessential populist”. As Trump prepares to resume his presidency in the US, he shares some surprising conclusions with Tim Phillips about the places that have a higher risk of conflict as a result. 

The first in a short series of VoxTalks inspired by papers from the 3rd Kiel-CEPR Conference on Geoeconomics.

How do men think they should behave? How important is it to dominate, to win, to control women, or to refuse help? How do views on this correlate to economic performance, to men’s physical and mental health, even to politics? Ralph De Haas and Victoria Baranov are two of the authors of research into what masculinity means around the world. They tell Tim Phillips about the surprising differences they discovered.

Bank branches are closing rapidly as banking activity migrates online. What are the consequences, for the public, for a bank’s business customers, or the wider economy? Niklas Amberg and Bo Becker tell Tim Phillips about the unintended consequences for Sweden’s small businesses – and economic activity – of removing face-to-face banking. 

Recorded at the Climate Change and the Environment Conference, organised by the AXA Research Fund and CEPR. We are familiar with frightening images of deforestation, and you’ve heard the warnings of the impact on nature if we do not do a better job of protecting our tropical rainforests. But how can we quantify the gains from reversing deforestation, and at what carbon price is reforestation economically rational? José Scheinkman talks to Tim Phillips about the consequences of deforestation, how to create policy levers to reverse the trend, and the benefits if we use carbon credits as a means of restoring nature.

The second of three special episodes of VoxTalks Economics recorded at the Climate Change and the Environment Conference in Paris, jointly organised by the AXA Research Fund and CEPR. The green transition needs investment. So who will fund it, and under what conditions? Tim Phillips asks Gilles Moec of AXA and Katheline Schubert of the Sorbonne and PSE about how capital can be mobilised to get us to Net Zero.

The first of three special episodes of VoxTalks Economics recorded at the Climate Change and the Environment Conference in Paris, jointly organised by the AXA Research Fund and CEPR. Weather patterns are changing around the world, and weather-related insurance claims are rising. As climate change increases losses from these events, is it the responsibility of governments to compensate those who lose their homes and businesses, or can the insurance industry step up to provide that service? Thierry Langreney of the NGO Les Ateliers du Futur, and Mathieu Godart, Head of P&C - AXA France, discuss the issues with Tim Phillips.