This episode of The IR thinker offers a detailed examination of the Wagner Group, tracing its emergence, leadership and overseas operations, and assessing its performance and limitations in the war in Ukraine. The conversation considers what Wagner’s methods reveal about Russian military strategy, explores the group’s mutiny and seizure of Rostov-on-Don, and discusses the wider implications for Russia’s armed forces, security services and political system.

John Bruni

Dr John Bruni is a researcher, analyst and podcaster specialising in military and intelligence affairs, with regional expertise in the Middle East, North East Asia and the South Pacific. His work focuses on defence procurement, terrorism and counter terrorism, United States strategic policy, geospatial intelligence and the proliferation of ballistic missiles. A former lecturer at the University of Adelaide, he has contributed analysis to Jane’s and serves as a non-resident fellow at TRENDS Research and Advisory in Abu Dhabi. He is also the CEO and founder of SAGE International, an independent Australian think tank dedicated to defence, space, security and international relations.

Content

00:00 - Introduction

01:54 - Wagner Group’s Inception & Dmitry Utkin’s Role

04:47 - Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Story

06:24 - Dmitry Utkin’s Current Status

07:38 - Wagner Group’s Overseas Assignments

11:07 - Wagner Group’s Travelling & Membership Details

14:37 - Procurement & Profitability of Wagner Group

16:31 - Comparing Wagner Group with Western Military Contractors

19:02 - The Principle of ‘Plausible Deniability’

21:44 - Putin’s Acknowledgement of Wagner Group’s Funding & Ownership

25:27 - Expectations from Wagner Group and Russian Army in Ukraine

28:05 - Coordination Between Wagner Group and Russian Army in Ukraine

29:37 - Perception of Wagner Group by High Ranking Russian Military Officers

34:14 - Strengths and Weaknesses of Wagner Group

36:59 - Lessons Learnt by the Collective West in Ukraine

45:25 - Potential Successors of Wagner Group in Ukraine

49:46 - Non-destruction of Western Supply Routes in Ukraine: Why?

53:01 - Russian Airspace Penetration: How and Why?

56:01 - Wagner Group’s Seizure of Rostov on Don Airbase

59:57 - Bizarre Tactics of Russian Airforce in Ukraine

01:00:35 - Suppression of Enemy Air Defense (SEAD)

01:02:41 - Connection Between Wagner Group and FSB

01:04:51 - Future Impact & Scenarios: Wagner Group and Belarus

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