In a Japanese think tank’s latest simulation predicting who would win a cross-strait war, Taiwan emerges victorious, with Beijing failing to conquer the island. But both sides sustain heavy losses. As for the players, Beijing is on one side facing off with Taiwan, the United States, and Japan. The year is 2026, and the losses are tens of thousands killed or wounded on either side—with the tide turning at a key point in battle. But what about after 2026, when most experts predict China’s military growth will reach a new stage?

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