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We Are In A Recession And We Have To Act Like It!
WE ARE IN A RECESSION - LET'S ACT LIKE IT!
In a recent Forbes article they told the truth, we are in a recession. They write, The media, including some in the economics profession, have concluded that the “economy is strong” and there won’t be a Recession, all based on a single number from Friday’s Payroll Survey. June’s headline number came in at +372K, above the consensus +265K. Based on this number alone, markets concluded that the Fed will raise 75 basis points (bps) at their July meeting. The last point may, indeed, be true, given that this Fed reacts to lagging indicators instead of the leading ones.
Other indicators also point to weakening employment:
- In the ISM June Manufacturing Survey, the employment sub-index was 47.3, in contractionary territory for the second month in a row (50 is the demarcation between expansion and contraction), and the ISM Services Survey also showed falling employment (47.4).
- Challenger’s June report showed rising layoff announcements, up 57% M/M and 59% Y/Y. Hiring announcements fell -18% M/M, negative in three of the last four months and -6.5% Y/Y.
- The latest JOLTS report (BLS’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) corroborates the Challenger report. Job openings fell -427K in June and layoffs rose +77K.
- Initial Jobless Claims, too, have risen, now up +62K from their early April lows. From an historical perspective, a rise of +60K has often coincided with the start of a Recession. Continuing Claims (those on unemployment for more than one week) rose to +1.375 million in the latest report (through the week ended July 1) up from +1.305 million less than a month ago.
FULL ARTICLE: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2022/07/09/recession-has-arrived-depth-and-duration-dependent-on-the-fed/?sh=1b1ed1f0136a
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By Michael Lodge
3.7
33 ratings
WE ARE IN A RECESSION - LET'S ACT LIKE IT!
In a recent Forbes article they told the truth, we are in a recession. They write, The media, including some in the economics profession, have concluded that the “economy is strong” and there won’t be a Recession, all based on a single number from Friday’s Payroll Survey. June’s headline number came in at +372K, above the consensus +265K. Based on this number alone, markets concluded that the Fed will raise 75 basis points (bps) at their July meeting. The last point may, indeed, be true, given that this Fed reacts to lagging indicators instead of the leading ones.
Other indicators also point to weakening employment:
- In the ISM June Manufacturing Survey, the employment sub-index was 47.3, in contractionary territory for the second month in a row (50 is the demarcation between expansion and contraction), and the ISM Services Survey also showed falling employment (47.4).
- Challenger’s June report showed rising layoff announcements, up 57% M/M and 59% Y/Y. Hiring announcements fell -18% M/M, negative in three of the last four months and -6.5% Y/Y.
- The latest JOLTS report (BLS’ Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) corroborates the Challenger report. Job openings fell -427K in June and layoffs rose +77K.
- Initial Jobless Claims, too, have risen, now up +62K from their early April lows. From an historical perspective, a rise of +60K has often coincided with the start of a Recession. Continuing Claims (those on unemployment for more than one week) rose to +1.375 million in the latest report (through the week ended July 1) up from +1.305 million less than a month ago.
FULL ARTICLE: https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2022/07/09/recession-has-arrived-depth-and-duration-dependent-on-the-fed/?sh=1b1ed1f0136a
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.