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Weekly Market Updates | Top Stock Picks From ETFs & Mutual Funds
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thesimpleside.substack.com
Enjoy this article thanks to Groundfloor — if you are looking for a place to keep your “sidelined” cash, Groundfloor might be the spot (perfect for our strong cash position).
Reminders: Copy Trading HerePortfolio Views HereMacro Indicators HereResearch Reports Here
Help Me Help You
One of the things I want to do more than anything else is ensure that you all are getting what you want from me. Please take a bit of time this weekend to let me know what you think can be improved upon in the newsletter by clicking the link below. There aren’t a million questions, nor am I collecting data, I just want to hear from you.
You can let me know what you want me to write about, weekly things you want to see more of, if you want me to cover earnings, anything! I am happy to hear it all!
Thank you so much. I truly appreciate it.
Simple Side Shareholders, welcome back to another weekly edition of The Saturday Sendout from The Simple Side.
A few key things that happened this week, both in the markets and with the portfolios: some good, some bad. Before we get into it all, I want to quickly highlight what our quant macro indicator is flashing.
Right now, we have shifted out of the “buy” territory for the general economy. This is the first time we have dropped into a hold since last week. This wavering between hold and buy has been happening since the beginning of the year. The highest level we have reached was 0.35 (still a far cry away from the max value of 1), and the lowest we have reach this year has been -0.049 (which is no where near strong sell territory).
What is frustrating is that we are getting no clear signal (buy or sell) from the model. One of the things that we do know is that these periods of “waiting” — while not common — do happen from time to time. The most recent one occurred mid to late 2025 when we saw no clear signal from April to July (over 4 months in limbo). In this case, we have been in limbo since November 2025 (a current total of 4 months).
One of the benefits of being a paid subscriber here at The Simple Side is getting access to a collective of portfolios that we offer. While not all of our subscribers follow these portfolios, many do and those that have followed the Macro Portfolio have outperformed the S&P 500 handily so far in 2026.
The current portfolio is up about 14% YTD outpacing the S&P 500’s return of 0.74% YTD. You can find this portfolio on the “Portfolios” tab on our website: https://thesimpleside.news/. The macro indicators can be seen here: https://thesimpleside.news/macro-indicators.
The total macro indicator isn’t the only place where we are “missing” clear conviction, in the quant model we have built on the S&P 500 we are also witnessing a “I don’t know” feeling. We have been bouncing back and forth between the “sell - hold - buy” levels since the beginning of this year (again, with no conviction).
So basically, it seems like the underlying economy is conflicted relative to the current valuation of the stock market. What does that mean for us?
Well, it means keep calm and carry on. We have been holding 50% cash since that red circle you see on that chart. That is the beginning of 2025. Since then, the stock market is up about 16% and I am not upset in the slightest about the fact that 50% of our cash has missed out on that run. The market is still devilishly overvalued.
This ratio shows the Wilshire 5000 index against the Gross National Product of the US — an indicator that is well known as “The Buffett Indicator.” The US market just can’t seem to return company valuations to “normal” levels. I think the huge swing up we are seeing can be “blamed” on two factors
* The popularization of retail trading and $0 commission trading.
* The AI “super cycle” which is leading to a huge “potential income” boost.
Both of these are still playing out and they, of course, have multiplied one another. Regardless, the world won’t stop moving, overvalued or not.
The other thing that won’t stop are the richest people in the world getting richer, and boy have they made some interesting moves recently…
13F, ETF, and Mutual Fund Information
Where has the smartest money in the world been putting their capital? I worked with the team over at insideredges.com to put together a quick list of 5 stocks that these investors have been snapping up across the board. Before we get into that, I first want to share with you some of the craziest data that the IE team shared with me.
After the stock market crashed in 2022, ETFs, Mutual Funds, and 13F investors all seemingly had a perfect grasp on some companies that they wanted to buy. In January 2023, 5 key stocks popped as being heavily bought by all three groups. Those key stocks?
* META
* NVDA
* NFLX
* AMZN
* ADBE
Over the next year those companies would return 194%, 239%, 65%, 80%, and 77% respectively, and an equal weighting portfolio of those companies would have returned 131% in just one year.
They managed to do it again in 2024 picking only 3 key stocks: META, NVDA, and AMZN which returned an equal weighted portfolio 93%. In 2025 it was more of the same and the portfolio returned 41.33%.
Now, heading into 2026, the 3 wealthiest groups in the world have spoken and have highlighted a new set of 5 key stocks.
1. Nvidia — NVDA
The number one pick 13F filers was NVDA. The stock is up only 1.78% YTD and is one of the few AI hype companies to really produce profits from the “hype” surrounding the company. It is now one of the most necessary, and impressive companies that exists in the world today. Currently, the company boasts a 3yr revenue growth of about 61%, net margins that eclipse 50%, and ROIC - WACC of 166% : 18.64% (one of the most impressive metrics I have ever seen).
Not only are their profits impressive but the balance sheet matches just as well. Their cash holdings are now over 40 billion dollars and their debt is a measly 10 billion. Wildly impressive numbers from the behemoth, but what I find more impressive are the “smart money” moves that have been happening.
Over 7% of all mutual funds and over 12.11% of all ETFs are buying up the stock in early 2026. It is the same story with the 13F filers of the world, over 31% are buying in. Now, when a huge majority of the worlds wealthiest are willing to all go in on the same company, what do we think is going to happen? I bet they do everything they can to keep that company riding high.
2. AppLovin — APP
AppLovin is an interesting choice because the stock is down over 37% YTD.
However, it seems like analysts and “smart money” disagree with me. Currently, 11% of 13F filers are buying in, 6% of mutual funds are buying in, and 6% of ETFs are buying in as well.
Oh, and the analysts?
They are heavily weighted towards “buy” and “outperform” ratings. The lowest current estimate is set at $455 which is an 9% return from the current price. The highest estimate is set at $860 which is a 105% return, and the middle of the road price the stock at $670 or a 60% return (ridiculous numbers across the board).
A quick DCF analysis on my end pegs the price of the stock at 20% returns over the next year, or a fair value of 529.13 (a bit more reasonable than the analysts). I am assuming free cash flow will grow at a pace of 50% for the next 5 years which is less than the current 5 year trend of 81.5%, less than the current 3yr trend of 118%, and is less than the all time trend for the company of 67.66%. Seems like a fair assumption to me. Regardless of what I think, “smart money” is going all in.
3. Tesla — TSLA
Okay, I need to start going through these a bit faster… Tesla is a name on this list that I did not expect to see. The stock is down 8% YTD and is currently price quick high in my opinion — but again, in the world of mutual funds and ETFs, my opinion doesn’t matter all that much.
Tesla stock hasn’t seen great revenue growth recently, so maybe insiders know something big is coming…
To me, and again I say “to me” because we are focusing on the trades of those running portfolios much larger than mine, Tesla looks like a completely speculative bet. That, or it is a bet on Elon Musk and the potential for more M&A between his companies. In general, the company holds a strong cash position and is starting to see more and more revenue come from the energy generation segment of their business.
Large buyers in Q4 of 2025 include Renaissance Technologies, George Soros, and Mario Gabelli. As for the big numbers we are paying attention to 24% of 13F filers are buying alongside 6% of mutual funds and 8% of ETFs.
4. AMD — Advanced Micro Devices
AMD is a name that I am happy to see on this list. Yes, the company is up over 160% in the past three year, but I think they are relatively overlooked in the AI race. Their revenue growth hasn’t had the same NVDA trajectory, but it does look like their balance sheet is starting to benefit from the AI wave.
The company’s cash position jumped to nearly 2x the prior quarters size in Q4 as all of their key metrics started to perk up. Key buyers here were Renaissance Technologies and Jefferies Group which make this a particularly interesting purchase. This is the 13th quarter in a row that Jefferies Group has purchased AMD, and is their second largest purchase of the company.
The big numbers from purchasers are as follows:
18% of 13F5% of mutual funds8% of ETFs
5. NOW — ServiceNow
This is another one of the names that I am happy to see, but am also astonished to see. ServiceNow is one of the recently beaten down software companies down over 55% from their highs over the past few years, and down 30% YTD. However, “smart money” doesn’t seem to care.
NOW has been a growth machine, just constantly growing revenue, operating income, and free cash flow quarter over quarter. Talk about a machine that just can’t be stopped (and it looks like big money thinks so too). Current revenue growth is over 20% yearly since 2021, free cash flow is over 24%, and all the while company metrics are looking better than ever.
Compared to historical values, the company looks like bargain on value (trading at one of the lowest PE’s that it ever has) and has a PEG ratio of .7 (better than 75% of other software companies). The company looks great in the finances department too with cash holdings eclipsing 3x that of debt, assets are growing as fast as ever, and their revenue outside of the US is starting to pick up as well.
Diversification, growth, and profitability — check, check, and check. Big buyers were Jefferies (again), Mario (again), and Renaissance (a new buy for them).
The big numbers are:
15% of 13F5% of mutual funds7% of ETFs
Time to buy?
The equal weight portfolio of these 5 stocks is down 17% YTD, and while it is impossible to know what will happen tomorrow investing with some of the markets best as a tailwind is never a horrendous idea. In our current portfolios, we own names like NOW and AMD so I will be rooting for those, but the other stocks could play a key role in an outperforming portfolio as 2026 progresses.
Stock Research Reports
If you are a paying subscriber, you can head over to https://thesimpleside.news/research to get access to all of our historical and current picks.
Currently, we have posted a total of 16 picks, and of those we have a total of 12 closed trades and 4 open positions. Of our closed trades we have 10 winners and 2 losers.
We have 4 open positions we have 2 in the green (RTX and NEE) and 2 in the red (W and NICE).
I currently have 2 picks in the works and I hope to be sending them out to you all soon!
Portfolio Information
Paid subscribers get direct access to all of these portfolios & real-time updates. My portfolios are available for paid subscribers to access in three places:
Joining paid here: LINKCopy trading On Autopilot: LINKViewing them on my website: LINK
This week went surprisingly well given the lower than hoped for GDP numbers and the mini war Trump and the courts are having. I think our portfolio shift was beneficial and I do think we will start to reap the rewards of that change very soon. There were some technical difficulties that happened with uploading the new trades to Autopilot, but they should be adjusted for everyone on Monday at market open if you follow the trades there.
The change was made on Feb 17, and since then the portfolio is up around 1% (slowly gaining back the ground that we lost with our heavy software investment.
View all episodes
By The Simple SideThis is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thesimpleside.substack.com
Enjoy this article thanks to Groundfloor — if you are looking for a place to keep your “sidelined” cash, Groundfloor might be the spot (perfect for our strong cash position).
Reminders: Copy Trading HerePortfolio Views HereMacro Indicators HereResearch Reports Here
Help Me Help You
One of the things I want to do more than anything else is ensure that you all are getting what you want from me. Please take a bit of time this weekend to let me know what you think can be improved upon in the newsletter by clicking the link below. There aren’t a million questions, nor am I collecting data, I just want to hear from you.
You can let me know what you want me to write about, weekly things you want to see more of, if you want me to cover earnings, anything! I am happy to hear it all!
Thank you so much. I truly appreciate it.
Simple Side Shareholders, welcome back to another weekly edition of The Saturday Sendout from The Simple Side.
A few key things that happened this week, both in the markets and with the portfolios: some good, some bad. Before we get into it all, I want to quickly highlight what our quant macro indicator is flashing.
Right now, we have shifted out of the “buy” territory for the general economy. This is the first time we have dropped into a hold since last week. This wavering between hold and buy has been happening since the beginning of the year. The highest level we have reached was 0.35 (still a far cry away from the max value of 1), and the lowest we have reach this year has been -0.049 (which is no where near strong sell territory).
What is frustrating is that we are getting no clear signal (buy or sell) from the model. One of the things that we do know is that these periods of “waiting” — while not common — do happen from time to time. The most recent one occurred mid to late 2025 when we saw no clear signal from April to July (over 4 months in limbo). In this case, we have been in limbo since November 2025 (a current total of 4 months).
One of the benefits of being a paid subscriber here at The Simple Side is getting access to a collective of portfolios that we offer. While not all of our subscribers follow these portfolios, many do and those that have followed the Macro Portfolio have outperformed the S&P 500 handily so far in 2026.
The current portfolio is up about 14% YTD outpacing the S&P 500’s return of 0.74% YTD. You can find this portfolio on the “Portfolios” tab on our website: https://thesimpleside.news/. The macro indicators can be seen here: https://thesimpleside.news/macro-indicators.
The total macro indicator isn’t the only place where we are “missing” clear conviction, in the quant model we have built on the S&P 500 we are also witnessing a “I don’t know” feeling. We have been bouncing back and forth between the “sell - hold - buy” levels since the beginning of this year (again, with no conviction).
So basically, it seems like the underlying economy is conflicted relative to the current valuation of the stock market. What does that mean for us?
Well, it means keep calm and carry on. We have been holding 50% cash since that red circle you see on that chart. That is the beginning of 2025. Since then, the stock market is up about 16% and I am not upset in the slightest about the fact that 50% of our cash has missed out on that run. The market is still devilishly overvalued.
This ratio shows the Wilshire 5000 index against the Gross National Product of the US — an indicator that is well known as “The Buffett Indicator.” The US market just can’t seem to return company valuations to “normal” levels. I think the huge swing up we are seeing can be “blamed” on two factors
* The popularization of retail trading and $0 commission trading.
* The AI “super cycle” which is leading to a huge “potential income” boost.
Both of these are still playing out and they, of course, have multiplied one another. Regardless, the world won’t stop moving, overvalued or not.
The other thing that won’t stop are the richest people in the world getting richer, and boy have they made some interesting moves recently…
13F, ETF, and Mutual Fund Information
Where has the smartest money in the world been putting their capital? I worked with the team over at insideredges.com to put together a quick list of 5 stocks that these investors have been snapping up across the board. Before we get into that, I first want to share with you some of the craziest data that the IE team shared with me.
After the stock market crashed in 2022, ETFs, Mutual Funds, and 13F investors all seemingly had a perfect grasp on some companies that they wanted to buy. In January 2023, 5 key stocks popped as being heavily bought by all three groups. Those key stocks?
* META
* NVDA
* NFLX
* AMZN
* ADBE
Over the next year those companies would return 194%, 239%, 65%, 80%, and 77% respectively, and an equal weighting portfolio of those companies would have returned 131% in just one year.
They managed to do it again in 2024 picking only 3 key stocks: META, NVDA, and AMZN which returned an equal weighted portfolio 93%. In 2025 it was more of the same and the portfolio returned 41.33%.
Now, heading into 2026, the 3 wealthiest groups in the world have spoken and have highlighted a new set of 5 key stocks.
1. Nvidia — NVDA
The number one pick 13F filers was NVDA. The stock is up only 1.78% YTD and is one of the few AI hype companies to really produce profits from the “hype” surrounding the company. It is now one of the most necessary, and impressive companies that exists in the world today. Currently, the company boasts a 3yr revenue growth of about 61%, net margins that eclipse 50%, and ROIC - WACC of 166% : 18.64% (one of the most impressive metrics I have ever seen).
Not only are their profits impressive but the balance sheet matches just as well. Their cash holdings are now over 40 billion dollars and their debt is a measly 10 billion. Wildly impressive numbers from the behemoth, but what I find more impressive are the “smart money” moves that have been happening.
Over 7% of all mutual funds and over 12.11% of all ETFs are buying up the stock in early 2026. It is the same story with the 13F filers of the world, over 31% are buying in. Now, when a huge majority of the worlds wealthiest are willing to all go in on the same company, what do we think is going to happen? I bet they do everything they can to keep that company riding high.
2. AppLovin — APP
AppLovin is an interesting choice because the stock is down over 37% YTD.
However, it seems like analysts and “smart money” disagree with me. Currently, 11% of 13F filers are buying in, 6% of mutual funds are buying in, and 6% of ETFs are buying in as well.
Oh, and the analysts?
They are heavily weighted towards “buy” and “outperform” ratings. The lowest current estimate is set at $455 which is an 9% return from the current price. The highest estimate is set at $860 which is a 105% return, and the middle of the road price the stock at $670 or a 60% return (ridiculous numbers across the board).
A quick DCF analysis on my end pegs the price of the stock at 20% returns over the next year, or a fair value of 529.13 (a bit more reasonable than the analysts). I am assuming free cash flow will grow at a pace of 50% for the next 5 years which is less than the current 5 year trend of 81.5%, less than the current 3yr trend of 118%, and is less than the all time trend for the company of 67.66%. Seems like a fair assumption to me. Regardless of what I think, “smart money” is going all in.
3. Tesla — TSLA
Okay, I need to start going through these a bit faster… Tesla is a name on this list that I did not expect to see. The stock is down 8% YTD and is currently price quick high in my opinion — but again, in the world of mutual funds and ETFs, my opinion doesn’t matter all that much.
Tesla stock hasn’t seen great revenue growth recently, so maybe insiders know something big is coming…
To me, and again I say “to me” because we are focusing on the trades of those running portfolios much larger than mine, Tesla looks like a completely speculative bet. That, or it is a bet on Elon Musk and the potential for more M&A between his companies. In general, the company holds a strong cash position and is starting to see more and more revenue come from the energy generation segment of their business.
Large buyers in Q4 of 2025 include Renaissance Technologies, George Soros, and Mario Gabelli. As for the big numbers we are paying attention to 24% of 13F filers are buying alongside 6% of mutual funds and 8% of ETFs.
4. AMD — Advanced Micro Devices
AMD is a name that I am happy to see on this list. Yes, the company is up over 160% in the past three year, but I think they are relatively overlooked in the AI race. Their revenue growth hasn’t had the same NVDA trajectory, but it does look like their balance sheet is starting to benefit from the AI wave.
The company’s cash position jumped to nearly 2x the prior quarters size in Q4 as all of their key metrics started to perk up. Key buyers here were Renaissance Technologies and Jefferies Group which make this a particularly interesting purchase. This is the 13th quarter in a row that Jefferies Group has purchased AMD, and is their second largest purchase of the company.
The big numbers from purchasers are as follows:
18% of 13F5% of mutual funds8% of ETFs
5. NOW — ServiceNow
This is another one of the names that I am happy to see, but am also astonished to see. ServiceNow is one of the recently beaten down software companies down over 55% from their highs over the past few years, and down 30% YTD. However, “smart money” doesn’t seem to care.
NOW has been a growth machine, just constantly growing revenue, operating income, and free cash flow quarter over quarter. Talk about a machine that just can’t be stopped (and it looks like big money thinks so too). Current revenue growth is over 20% yearly since 2021, free cash flow is over 24%, and all the while company metrics are looking better than ever.
Compared to historical values, the company looks like bargain on value (trading at one of the lowest PE’s that it ever has) and has a PEG ratio of .7 (better than 75% of other software companies). The company looks great in the finances department too with cash holdings eclipsing 3x that of debt, assets are growing as fast as ever, and their revenue outside of the US is starting to pick up as well.
Diversification, growth, and profitability — check, check, and check. Big buyers were Jefferies (again), Mario (again), and Renaissance (a new buy for them).
The big numbers are:
15% of 13F5% of mutual funds7% of ETFs
Time to buy?
The equal weight portfolio of these 5 stocks is down 17% YTD, and while it is impossible to know what will happen tomorrow investing with some of the markets best as a tailwind is never a horrendous idea. In our current portfolios, we own names like NOW and AMD so I will be rooting for those, but the other stocks could play a key role in an outperforming portfolio as 2026 progresses.
Stock Research Reports
If you are a paying subscriber, you can head over to https://thesimpleside.news/research to get access to all of our historical and current picks.
Currently, we have posted a total of 16 picks, and of those we have a total of 12 closed trades and 4 open positions. Of our closed trades we have 10 winners and 2 losers.
We have 4 open positions we have 2 in the green (RTX and NEE) and 2 in the red (W and NICE).
I currently have 2 picks in the works and I hope to be sending them out to you all soon!
Portfolio Information
Paid subscribers get direct access to all of these portfolios & real-time updates. My portfolios are available for paid subscribers to access in three places:
Joining paid here: LINKCopy trading On Autopilot: LINKViewing them on my website: LINK
This week went surprisingly well given the lower than hoped for GDP numbers and the mini war Trump and the courts are having. I think our portfolio shift was beneficial and I do think we will start to reap the rewards of that change very soon. There were some technical difficulties that happened with uploading the new trades to Autopilot, but they should be adjusted for everyone on Monday at market open if you follow the trades there.
The change was made on Feb 17, and since then the portfolio is up around 1% (slowly gaining back the ground that we lost with our heavy software investment.