This is a free sample of Tatsu’s weekly geopolitical risk assessment for investors and decision makers. Contact tatsu at tikeda dot com to get monthly outlooks and weekly updates, custom for your organization. 1. Thesis Status

US-Russia Settlement Framework (65-70% → 70-75%): CONFIRMED - ACCELERATINGStory #3 confirms European officials labeled Trump’s peace plan “very bad.” Story #5 confirms US-Ukraine negotiations concluded covering “most sensitive questions.” BREAKING (Dec 26): NYT reports Zelensky meeting Trump Sunday in Florida with “broad agenda” including Donbas and Zaporizhzhia NPP—the two biggest sticking points. Zelensky: “A lot can be decided before the New Year.” 20-point plan developed WITH the US (parallel track, not exclusion). Zelensky spoke ~1 hour with Witkoff/Kushner Thursday discussing “good ideas on formats, meetings, timing.” Trump only agreed to meet once “close to agreement”—suggests substantial progress already made. Probability: 70-75% (raised 5% due to meeting momentum + year-end timeline).

Russian Territorial Consolidation: CONFIRMED - ACCELERATINGStory #2 reports Ukrainian forces fleeing Gulyaypole with “zero coordination.” Story #4 confirms fighting shifted to western Gulyaypole—Russian drone operators preventing Ukrainian resupply. Story #8 reports Russians captured Ukrainian battalion command post with equipment, communications, data storage—first battalion-level HQ capture, indicating systemic Territorial Defense Brigade failures. Story #10 shows continued Odesa drone strikes at 50m altitude. Military pressure may accelerate Zelensky’s willingness to negotiate DMZ in Donbas (NYT reports he’s willing to pull troops IF Russia withdraws equivalent territory). Probability: unchanged but pace faster than baseline.

Russian Drone Supremacy (90%): CONFIRMEDStory #1 shows Russian air defense intercepting 30+ Ukrainian drones. Story #10 demonstrates 50-meter altitude Shahed strikes on Odesa residential areas. Story #4 confirms Ukrainian logistics paralyzed by Russian drone interdiction at Gulyaypole. Probability: unchanged at 90%.

[DATA: Settlement Momentum | Zelensky-Trump: Sunday Dec 29 | Topics: NPP + Donbas | Timeline: "Before New Year" | Status: Framework possible by Jan 1]

European Coalition Fracturing (40%): CONFIRMEDStory #9 confirms December 18 EU summit failure on asset mechanism. Europe scrambling to develop counter-proposal to Trump plan (Story #3) signals reactive posture and continued disunity. Probability: unchanged at 40%.

Middle East Ceasefire Fragility (30%): STABLENo new developments this week. Probability: unchanged at 30%.

Syria Transition: NO NEW DEVELOPMENTSNo updates on Erdogan Tehran visit. Probability: unchanged.

2. Trigger Watch

Trigger: US-Russia Settlement Framework by Year-End: APPROACHINGBREAKING (Dec 26): Zelensky-Trump meeting Sunday Dec 29 in Florida. Agenda: Donbas + Zaporizhzhia NPP. Zelensky claims “a lot can be decided before New Year” (3 days after meeting). Binary Signal: If meeting produces framework agreement → announce by Dec 31, settlement probability rises to 80%. If meeting ends without framework → extends to mid-January, probability drops to 65%. Action: If framework announced → reduce defense hedges by 25%, add European defense exposure. Probability of framework by Jan 1: 45%.

Trigger: EU Asset Mechanism (Belgium): FIRED - NEGATIVE RESOLUTIONStory #9 confirms December 18 summit failure. Action: EUR/CHF hedge at 10%; monitor Belgian spreads. Status: Coalition fracture trigger FIRED.

Trigger: Zaporizhzhia Front Collapse (Energy): FIRED - CRITICALStory #4 confirms fighting in western Gulyaypole with Ukrainian reserves unable to reach city. Story #8 reports battalion command post captured. Action: Add TTF natural gas exposure (€55 target, 15% upside). Status: FIRED. Probability of Orikhiv falling: 75% within 14 days.

Trigger: Zelensky Territorial Compromise: CONFIRMEDNYT reports Zelensky willing to pull troops from Donbas areas under Ukrainian control and create DMZ IF Russia withdraws from equivalent territory. First public territorial compromise offer. Implication: Settlement negotiations now include concrete territorial proposals, not just principles. Validates baseline assessment that territorial consolidation precedes settlement.

Trigger: Energy Infrastructure Escalation: STABLEStory #12 reports Orel power plant strike. NYT reports continued Russian bombardment (Kharkiv glide bomb attack Friday killed 2+). No major escalation spiral observed. Probability of firing: 30% within 14 days (lowered from 35% due to restraint).

3. Deviations & Misses

Parallel Track Model vs. Exclusion: Initial assessment (Story #7) suggested Ukraine excluded from NPP discussions. CORRECTION: NYT reveals parallel negotiation model—US engaging Moscow AND Kyiv separately, then mediating. Zelensky will discuss NPP directly with Trump on Sunday. 20-point plan developed WITH the US, not imposed. Baseline impact: Validates baseline “bilateral channel” thesis but clarifies Ukraine is negotiating partner, not excluded party. Implication: Settlement more likely to stick if Ukraine buy-in secured upfront.

Timeline Acceleration: Baseline anticipated “within 90 days” for settlement framework. Zelensky’s “a lot can be decided before New Year” compresses timeline to 5 days (Dec 27-31). Implication: If framework announced by Jan 1 → financial markets reprice geopolitical risk premium immediately. EUR rally possible if settlement reduces energy uncertainty. Defense stocks (LDO.MI, RHM.DE) face headwinds if ceasefire materializes.

Battalion Command Post Capture: Story #8 reports Russian capture of Ukrainian battalion CP at Gulyaypole—baseline did not anticipate battalion-level organizational collapse. Sternenk notes if confirmed as 102nd TRO Brigade, “problem becoming systemic.” Implication: Military pressure driving Zelensky’s territorial compromise offer. Ukraine negotiating from position of deteriorating front, not strength.

Zelensky’s Territorial Offer: NYT reports willingness to create Donbas DMZ if Russia withdraws equivalent land. Baseline did not anticipate specific territorial compromise this early in negotiations. Implication: Shows seriousness of Ukrainian negotiating posture. Market interpretation: settlement odds rising. EUR/CHF shorts vulnerable to squeeze if deal announced.

EU Summit Failure Timing: Story #9 validates baseline fracture thesis but December 18 formal breaking point earlier than baseline “within 90 days.” Implication: European disunity accelerating, not gradual. Belgium sovereign spreads vulnerable.

4. Week Ahead

1. Zelensky-Trump Meeting (Sunday Dec 29)Watch for: Joint statement; framework agreement announcement; territorial compromise details; NATO security guarantees; post-meeting Zelensky press conference.Binary Signal: If framework announced → settlement probability rises to 80%, reduce defense hedges 25%, EUR rallies 1-2%. If meeting ends without agreement → settlement probability drops to 65%, maintain full hedges, EUR weakens.Trigger probability: 45% of framework announcement by Dec 31.

2. Russian Response to Ukrainian CompromiseWatch for: Kremlin reaction to Zelensky’s DMZ proposal; Putin statements; Russian Foreign Ministry commentary; continued battlefield pressure or restraint.Binary Signal: If Russia signals openness to equivalent withdrawal → settlement odds rise 10%. If Russia rejects and intensifies attacks → settlement collapses, defense positions increase.Trigger probability: 35% of positive Russian response within 72 hours of Zelensky offer.

3. Gulyaypole Complete FallWatch for: Russian confirmation of full city capture; Ukrainian retreat across Mokri Yaly River; Orikhiv defensive preparations.Binary Signal: If Gulyaypole falls before Dec 31 → Zelensky’s negotiating position weakens, territorial concessions expand. If Ukrainian counterattack stabilizes → compromise from position of stability, not desperation.Trigger probability: 60% of complete fall by Jan 2 (lowered from 70% due to settlement talks potentially freezing advances).

4. Orikhiv Defensive Line TestWatch for: Russian advances toward Orikhiv; Ukrainian reserve deployment; ceasefire rumors affecting military operations.Binary Signal: If Russians reach Orikhiv outskirts before meeting → pressure Zelensky for greater concessions. If line holds → Ukraine negotiates from stronger position.Trigger probability: 65% of Russian pressure on Orikhiv within 14 days (lowered from 75% due to potential operational pause for talks).

5. Framework Announcement & Market ReactionWatch for: Dec 31 announcement timing; market open Jan 2; EUR/CHF movement; defense stock reaction; energy prices (TTF natural gas).Binary Signal: If framework announced → EUR rallies, defense stocks drop 5-10%, TTF drops 10-15%. If no announcement → positioning unchanged.Trigger probability: 45% of announcement by year-end.

Footnotes

[^1]: Zelensky to meet Trump Sunday in Florida, New York Times, December 26, 2025. Broad agenda including Donbas and Zaporizhzhia NPP; Zelensky claims “a lot can be decided before New Year.”

[^2]: Russians captured Ukrainian battalion CP at Gulyaypole, OSINT sources, December 2025. First battalion-level headquarters capture indicates systemic Territorial Defense Brigade failures.

[^3]: Fighting shifts to western Gulyaypole, Russian military sources, December 2025. Ukrainian reserves unable to reach city; Russian fire control established.

[^4]: Zelensky willing to create Donbas DMZ, New York Times, December 26, 2025. Ukrainian leader offers to pull troops from areas under Kyiv control IF Russia withdraws from equivalent land.

[^5]: EU summit fails on Russian assets, Deutsche Welle, December 18, 2025. Leaders unable to reach consensus on using frozen assets for Ukraine credit.

Baseline: outlook_december2025_professional_v4.md | Contact: tatsu [at] tikeda dot com

EDITOR’S NOTE: This weekly monitor was updated December 26 to reflect breaking news of Zelensky-Trump meeting scheduled for Sunday, December 29. Initial assessment of “Ukrainian exclusion from bilateral track” was corrected to “parallel negotiation model” based on NYT reporting. Settlement framework probability raised from 65-70% to 70-75%.

​