Sign up to save your podcasts
Or
Share Welcome to the Muskonomy: Betting on a Man Who Has Never Missed a Master Plan
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Share to email
Share to Facebook
Share to X
Or
Welcome to the Muskonomy: Betting on a Man Who Has Never Missed a Master Plan
My Clear and Short Opinion
As a car company, Tesla is already the greatest industrial success story of our generation — the only automaker that took Master Plan 1 (2006) and actually delivered it, on time and under budget relative to the insane ambition. Master Plan 2 (2016) and Master Plan 3 (2023) are in full execution. Master Plan 4 (September 2025) is no longer a slide deck — it is the operating system of the next human era.
The current 280× P/E is expensive for a car company.It is absurdly cheap if you believe Elon is about to solve the three final scarcities of civilization: energy, labor, and compute.
The Current Situation: Two Camps, Two Completely Different Futures
* Wall Street Analysts see a very good electric-car company trading at luxury-tech multiples while facing margin compression, Chinese competition, and the end of the EV growth hype cycle.
* Future Thinkers (ARK, Cern Basher, @alojoh, and now millions of retail believers) see the birth of the **Muskonomy — a vertically integrated abundance machine that will make the Industrial Revolution look like a warm-up act.
The Core Dilemma
How do we reconcile humanity’s need for prudent, evidence-based progress (don’t bet the farm until you see the robots walk) with the absolute requirement for someone, somewhere, to take civilization-scale risk so that energy, labor, and intelligence stop being scarce?
One side demands proof before belief. The other side knows that the proof only appears after the world gives one man a trillion-dollar war chest and a decade of runway.
The Synthesis — The True Bridge
Stop asking Tesla to choose between being a responsible public company and being the spearhead of human expansion.
The solution is earned audacity: the capital markets grant Tesla the right to swing for the fences in exact proportion to its perfect historical execution score on the first three Master Plans.
No compromise. Prudence is rewarded by past delivery.Acceleration is funded by future belief.
Giving the Hypothesis Legs — This Is Already Happening
Look at the track record:
* Master Plan 1 (2006–2018): Sports car → affordable EVs → mass market → Done.
* Master Plan 2 (2016): Gigafactories, Model 3/Y ramp, solar/storage, autonomy promised → all delivered except the final line “your car earns money while you sleep.” That line arrives 2026–2027.
* Master Plan 3 (2023): Global sustainable energy → Megapack factories exploding, 100 % YoY growth.
* Master Plan 4 (2025): “An Age of Abundance” through Optimus and full autonomy → Cybercab unveiled, Optimus Gen 2 walking, AI5 chip taped out.
And now the truly grandiose layers of the Muskonomy are stacking on top:
* Terafab — Elon realized no foundry on Earth can supply the hundreds of millions of inference chips needed. So Tesla becomes its own TSMC for AI silicon at < $1 per TOPS.
* Data Centers in the Sky — 7 GW of orbital compute by 2030, launched by Starship, powered by space solar, cooled by vacuum.
* Optimus — not a side project. Elon now says >50 % of Tesla’s long-term value. One billion humanoid robots doing everything humans don’t want to do, at a cost lower than one year of human wages.
This is no longer about selling more Model Ys.This is about removing labor as a concept.
Closing Notes
For the first time in history, one company is simultaneously attacking the three remaining constraints on human flourishing:
* Energy → already solved at grid scale
* Intelligence → Grok, FSD, Dojo
* Physical work → Optimus + Cybercab
Tesla is not overvalued at $1.3 trillion.The entire rest of the global auto industry combined is arguably overvalued at $2 trillion if Tesla executes even 30 % of Master Plan 4.
We are not investing in a car company trading at 280× earnings.We are investing in the entity that has a non-zero chance of making the 21st century the first century in human history where scarcity itself becomes optional.
Elon has never failed to deliver a Master Plan.He is now on the final boss level: abundance for eight billion humans — and a backup planet.
That’s what the P/E is pricing.And for once, the multiple might still be too low.
Welcome to the Muskonomy.The ride is just beginning.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit roelsmelt.substack.com/subscribe
View all episodes
By Roel Smelt | Disrupt ConsciousnessMy Clear and Short Opinion
As a car company, Tesla is already the greatest industrial success story of our generation — the only automaker that took Master Plan 1 (2006) and actually delivered it, on time and under budget relative to the insane ambition. Master Plan 2 (2016) and Master Plan 3 (2023) are in full execution. Master Plan 4 (September 2025) is no longer a slide deck — it is the operating system of the next human era.
The current 280× P/E is expensive for a car company.It is absurdly cheap if you believe Elon is about to solve the three final scarcities of civilization: energy, labor, and compute.
The Current Situation: Two Camps, Two Completely Different Futures
* Wall Street Analysts see a very good electric-car company trading at luxury-tech multiples while facing margin compression, Chinese competition, and the end of the EV growth hype cycle.
* Future Thinkers (ARK, Cern Basher, @alojoh, and now millions of retail believers) see the birth of the **Muskonomy — a vertically integrated abundance machine that will make the Industrial Revolution look like a warm-up act.
The Core Dilemma
How do we reconcile humanity’s need for prudent, evidence-based progress (don’t bet the farm until you see the robots walk) with the absolute requirement for someone, somewhere, to take civilization-scale risk so that energy, labor, and intelligence stop being scarce?
One side demands proof before belief. The other side knows that the proof only appears after the world gives one man a trillion-dollar war chest and a decade of runway.
The Synthesis — The True Bridge
Stop asking Tesla to choose between being a responsible public company and being the spearhead of human expansion.
The solution is earned audacity: the capital markets grant Tesla the right to swing for the fences in exact proportion to its perfect historical execution score on the first three Master Plans.
No compromise. Prudence is rewarded by past delivery.Acceleration is funded by future belief.
Giving the Hypothesis Legs — This Is Already Happening
Look at the track record:
* Master Plan 1 (2006–2018): Sports car → affordable EVs → mass market → Done.
* Master Plan 2 (2016): Gigafactories, Model 3/Y ramp, solar/storage, autonomy promised → all delivered except the final line “your car earns money while you sleep.” That line arrives 2026–2027.
* Master Plan 3 (2023): Global sustainable energy → Megapack factories exploding, 100 % YoY growth.
* Master Plan 4 (2025): “An Age of Abundance” through Optimus and full autonomy → Cybercab unveiled, Optimus Gen 2 walking, AI5 chip taped out.
And now the truly grandiose layers of the Muskonomy are stacking on top:
* Terafab — Elon realized no foundry on Earth can supply the hundreds of millions of inference chips needed. So Tesla becomes its own TSMC for AI silicon at < $1 per TOPS.
* Data Centers in the Sky — 7 GW of orbital compute by 2030, launched by Starship, powered by space solar, cooled by vacuum.
* Optimus — not a side project. Elon now says >50 % of Tesla’s long-term value. One billion humanoid robots doing everything humans don’t want to do, at a cost lower than one year of human wages.
This is no longer about selling more Model Ys.This is about removing labor as a concept.
Closing Notes
For the first time in history, one company is simultaneously attacking the three remaining constraints on human flourishing:
* Energy → already solved at grid scale
* Intelligence → Grok, FSD, Dojo
* Physical work → Optimus + Cybercab
Tesla is not overvalued at $1.3 trillion.The entire rest of the global auto industry combined is arguably overvalued at $2 trillion if Tesla executes even 30 % of Master Plan 4.
We are not investing in a car company trading at 280× earnings.We are investing in the entity that has a non-zero chance of making the 21st century the first century in human history where scarcity itself becomes optional.
Elon has never failed to deliver a Master Plan.He is now on the final boss level: abundance for eight billion humans — and a backup planet.
That’s what the P/E is pricing.And for once, the multiple might still be too low.
Welcome to the Muskonomy.The ride is just beginning.
This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit roelsmelt.substack.com/subscribe