Wharton Moneyball

A prediction can look precise without capturing everything that could change the outcome. From Election Day polling to sports forecasting, the most important uncertainty is often the hardest to measure.

Eric Bradlow, Adi Wyner, and Shane Jensen explore how polls, prediction markets, and statistical models handle uncertainty and correlated error. They discuss what early results can reveal about an election forecast and why no model should be mistaken for certainty. The conversation also covers the Yankees’ postseason roster questions, NFL parity, the college football playoff race, Conor McDavid’s scoring pace, tennis rankings, and the Sixers’ early-season performance.

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Watching a game can be more than entertainment. It can give people a reason to gather, a way to start a conversation, and a shared identity that lasts beyond the final score.

Todd Rogers, Weatherhead Professor of Public Policy at Harvard Kennedy School, explores the science of sports fandom and social connection. He explains why so many fans watch games alone, how a simple invitation can encourage people to watch together, and why the rituals of a sports season can help create and sustain friendships. Rogers also discusses how teams and leagues can make fan-to-fan connection part of the experience, from shared viewing to stadium activations and merchandise that sparks conversation.

The Wharton Moneyball team also breaks down the analytics behind the Brewers' winning approach, the college football playoff race, and the latest NFL developments.

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Some of baseball's most important calls now belong to the players.

Joe Martinez, MLB Vice President of On-Field Strategy, explains how MLB developed its automated ball-strike challenge system and why players, rather than managers, make the decision to challenge a call. He discusses the strategy behind the system's two retained challenges, the technology that creates personalized strike zones, and the balance between accuracy, game pace, and the human element of umpiring.

Martinez also shares what MLB has learned from the pitch clock, larger bases, and years of testing rule changes in the Minor Leagues.

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Baseball's biggest advantages are not always bought with the biggest payroll.

Mike Petriello, Major League Baseball's Director of Stats and Research, explains how teams such as the Milwaukee Brewers use Statcast, plate discipline, player development, and tailored matchups to compete with the sport's biggest spenders. He also examines the data behind Shohei Ohtani's postseason struggles, what swing path and pitch shape reveal about hitters, and why analytics only matter when coaches and players can put them into action.

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The transfer portal has changed how quickly a college football team can change. The data used to evaluate players, forecast seasons, and inform fans has to keep up.

Ron Yurko, Director of the Carnegie Mellon Sports Analytics Center, explores how analytics are helping modernize the Heisman race and make player evaluation more inclusive across positions. He discusses why transfer activity makes college football harder to predict, how uncertainty should shape team forecasts, and what students need to understand about sports betting and prediction markets.

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The NHL's salary cap is set to rise dramatically. For front offices, that means a new set of decisions about contracts, free agency, draft picks, and where to find an edge.

Samuel Ventura, Vice President of Hockey Strategy and Research for the Buffalo Sabres, explains how teams are modeling the effects of more cap space and adjusting the way they value players and build rosters. He also discusses how analytics has become more collaborative across hockey, from player evaluation to strategic decisions.

Ventura examines the potential of new player and puck tracking data, including how computer vision could help teams understand shooting mechanics, puck battles, and other previously hard-to-measure parts of the game. He also shares what NHL teams are learning about hiring analysts in the age of AI.

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In a league built around star quarterbacks, the ability to survive an injury can decide a season.

Neil Paine, sports writer and data analyst, explores how NFL teams can build a more resilient formula when their starting quarterback is unavailable. He examines why defenses, coaching, and the gap between a starter and backup can determine whether a team stays competitive, along with the strategic question of when to play a rookie quarterback.

Paine also breaks down Major League Baseball's playoff-seeding problem, where weak division winners can receive advantages over stronger wild card teams.

The conversation closes with a look at the Florida Panthers and why an injury-plagued "gap year" does not always mean a championship window has closed.

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The first week of the NFL season creates more opinions than answers.

Tej Seth, data scientist, breaks down how analysts can distinguish meaningful early-season signals from misleading results. He explains why offensive scheme changes can matter more than raw Week 1 statistics, why turnovers and late-down performance should be treated carefully, and how models should update after surprising games.

The conversation examines the Baltimore Ravens' evolving offense, the Kansas City Chiefs' new running game, San Francisco's edge over the Rams, and the matchups worth watching as the NFL season takes shape.

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Is this NFL season more wide open than it appears?

Brian Burke, Sports Data Scientist at ESPN, and Kevin Cole, Data Scientist at PFF, use football analytics to examine the season ahead. Burke explains how tracking data is changing the way teams measure pass protection and pressure, while Cole breaks down quarterback projections, team strength, and why the league's top contenders may be closer together than expected.

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The road to the College Football Playoff is not as straightforward as a preseason ranking suggests.

Bill Connelly, ESPN staff writer and creator of SP+, breaks down the analytics shaping the college football season. He examines why roster turnover creates a wider range of outcomes, how schedule strength affects playoff chances, the difference between the SEC and Big Ten, and the teams best positioned to contend. He also shares what his season simulations reveal about the title race and why a few unexpected teams could break through.

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