This week Oliver interviews Horace about his latest research on climate and micromobility, and his reflections on the recent COP26 meeting in Glasgow. Specifically, they dig into why micromobility wasn’t more prominently featured in the potential solutions provided by groups like the IEA, and how that matches up to the disruptive innovation framework. 

Specifically they get into: 
- His new research and modelling into the climate action opportunity that micromobility presents
- The new IEA report and it’s reliance on new technology that they haven’t identified, and why Horace believes it will come from micromobility (link to summary here: https://ourworldindata.org/co2-emissions-from-transport)
- The challenges of technology disruption intersecting with policy makers who require proven and de-risked methods

128: What COP26 Missed with Horace Dediu

Micromobility Industries first defined and now curates the future of urban transport that comes from small electric vehicles. 

Ride AI is now the focusing force of our industry as we explore how artificial intelligence will change the way we move. 

Ride AI is hosted by Ed Niedermeyer an American author and analyst who focuses on the automotive industry and mobility innovation. Co-Hosts of the show include Horace Dediu, Oliver Bruce and James Gross.

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On the latest episode of the Ride AI podcast, we dive into insurance, risk management, and driving automation with Michael Wagner, CEO of Edge Case Research.


With autonomous vehicles poised to revolutionize transportation, understanding the risks and liabilities associated with this technology is paramount. Unlike traditional auto insurance, where policies are based on factors like driver history and vehicle usage, insuring self-driving vehicles requires a deeper understanding of the technology itself. Edge Case Research aims to fill this gap by providing risk assessment technology tailored specifically for autonomous cars and trucks. Michael sheds light on how this nascent industry is developing new insurance solutions that address the unique challenges of AVs, while incentivizing safe practices and fostering trust.

Navigating Insurance & Risk in the Age of Autonomous Vehicles (with Michael Wagner)

The latest Ride AI podcast episode features Stefan Seltz-Axmacher, the former founder of Starsky Robotics and current founder and CEO of Polymath Robotics, discussing his experiences in the self-driving truck industry. Stefan reflects on the challenges faced by Starsky Robotics, particularly the overconfidence in machine learning and the belief in a one-size-fits-all solution for autonomy, and how this experience informs Polymath Robotics, his new venture focused on building a generalized navigation layer for off-road vehicles.



 Stefan reflects on the history of self-driving trucks and the challenges faced during his time at Starsky Robotics, including the overconfidence in machine learning and the misconception that data collection alone would lead to successful autonomous driving.

 He highlights the difficulty in raising funds for a more focused approach compared to competitors' broader promises.

  Stefan discusses the need for a more grounded understanding of robotics and AI, emphasizing the importance of addressing specific problems rather than chasing general solutions.

  Polymath Robotics aims to democratize automation by reducing the upfront costs and complexity, allowing smaller players and seed-funded startups to compete effectively.

  Stefan emphasizes the parallels between the evolution of the automotive and smartphone industries, indicating a similar maturation process in robotics hardware.




Lessons from V1 AV (with Stefan Seltz-Axmacher)

On the latest episode of the Ride AI podcast, our host Ed Niedermeyer talks to Tyson Jominy, VP of Data & Analytics for J.D, Power, about the recent dynamics in the car market. They touch on COVID, the EV market, the prospect of another truck/SUV slowdown, and how these are all related.

 Discussion on the cyclicality of the auto industry and recent turbulence due to COVID-19: undersupply situation, excess savings leading to increased demand, and supply chain disruptions.

 Pricing dynamics in the EV market: oversupply of EVs in the $50-60k price range leading to price cuts.

  Fleet sales and their impact on EV market dynamics, including potential risks to resale value and pricing stability (Hertz struggled with high repair bills and consumer dissatisfaction with EV rentals, prompting them to unwind their EV-focused strategy.)

  Tesla's decision not to pursue a low-cost model raises questions about the industry's focus and the challenges of making EVs profitable.

  The auto industry seems to be retreating to familiar corners, like focusing on SUVs, hybrids, and high-margin segments, rather than investing heavily in lower-cost EVs.

  EVs face challenges in consumer perception and understanding of total cost of ownership, compared to hybrids, which have been around for a while but still face low adoption rates.

  The auto industry's struggle to make EVs profitable raises concerns about the future of EV adoption and the profitability of traditional segments like trucks and SUVs.

  There's uncertainty about the trajectory of EV adoption and whether there will be a "EV winter" where growth stalls.

  Regulatory factors still incentivize automakers to invest in EVs despite profitability challenges.



EV Winter? (with Tyson Jominy)

This week’s episode of the Ride AI podcast is a mind-meld between automotive analyst Ed Niedermeyer and tech-innovation scholar Horace Dediu about why the car industry is ripe for disruption. Their conversation is a reflection on the transformative power of past innovations like computers and phones, and the need to imagine a better future for mobility.  Together they discuss: 

 The concept of unbundling the car for different trip types and purposes, similar to computing devices

 Observation that the world seeks to improve cars, but they are already highly optimized

  Critique of current approaches by companies like Tesla and Apple, which aim to fit new technologies into the existing car model

  Emphasis on the need for truly disruptive innovation in mobility, either through cheaper, more accessible options or new directions of competition

  Discussion on the potential for self-driving technology to transform mobility by enabling new experiences and connections

  Examinations of the challenges of building an EV that is both cheap and has extensive battery range

  Why investors are over-focused on cars as a platform at the expense of other autonomous driving use-cases, like agriculture, defense, and transit. 


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Disrupting the Car (with Horace Dediu)

For the inaugural episode of the new Ride AI podcast, author and analyst Ed Niedermeyer discusses the hype and disillusionment surrounding several new mobility technologies—namely autonomous vehicles—with Mike Ramsey, a vice president at Gartner. Ramsey explains the five parts of a hype cycle, including the innovation trigger and the trough of disillusionment, and provides historical analysis for where he believes autonomy is today on the road to mass adoption.

 Ed and Mike discuss the concept of the five-part "hype cycle" in technology adoption: innovation trigger, peak of inflated expectations, trough of disillusionment, slope of enlightenment, and plateau of productivity.
 The "slope of enlightenment" is explained as the phase where technologies become useful and start to see real-world applications.
 Autonomy in vehicles, while not profitable yet, is advancing (especially in robotaxis)
 Meanwhile autonomous technology is diffusing into other industries like agriculture, mining, and construction, where simple design domains allow for easier implementation.
  Despite challenges, significant investment in autonomy has advanced technologies like vision systems and edge AI.
  The hype surrounding autonomy is similar to that of other emerging technologies like generative AI, which may have significant impacts but will likely manifest in smaller, more practical applications initially.
  Media attention tends to focus on hype, but the most significant advancements often occur quietly, requiring deliberate effort to discover and understand.

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128: What COP26 Missed with Horace Dediu

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