Episode 189: What Do Trump’s Approval Ratings Mean?

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?” That’s the question that Gallup polling asks people to get that magic number called the Presidential Approval Rating. But what does that mean to the respondents? Does that mean they approve of how effective he is at getting his agenda passed? Does that mean they approve of his agenda at all? Does that mean they approve of his personality while getting his agenda passed? Or does it just mean they approve of his personality regardless?

My guess is, it all depends on the person hearing the question to interpret it in whatever way they think.

Mentioned links:

Gallup Daily: Trump Job Approval

Complete List of President Trump’s Major Accomplishments in First 100 Days

Show transcript

“Do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as president?” That’s the question that Gallup polling asks people to get that magic number called the Presidential Approval Rating. But what does that mean to the respondents? Does that mean they approve of how effective he is at getting his agenda passed? Does that mean they approve of his agenda at all? Does that mean they approve of his personality while getting his agenda passed? Or does it just mean they approve of his personality regardless?

My guess is, it all depends on the person hearing the question to interpret it in whatever way they think. In order to be able to compare one President’s numbers to another, they have to ask the same question in the same way, and unfortunately this vague question is the only way to do that.

I want to suggest that the approval rating of Trump, perhaps more so than any other President since this question was first asked in 1938, is based more on his personality than his accomplishments. Let me first say that I generally agree with the criticisms of his behavior. He is clearly an egotist, and it seems that his choices of who to hire, or fire, are too often based on that. And whether or not they are ego-fueled, certainly the revolving door of who’s in and who’s out at the White House has been concerning, to say the least. But he’s still getting things done, and administrative chaos, while it does inhibit and mask accomplishments, doesn’t mean he’s ineffective.

Yes, there are the big things like the non-repeal-and-replace of ObamaCare. But there’s a list over at Gateway Pundit, linked to in the show notes, of things that Joe Hoft at least credits to Trump. And it’s an impressive list.

Noting how well the stock market has performed since Trump’s inauguration is fraught with danger. While the measure of the market can be a reflection of the economy in general, it often takes a bit of time before a President’s economic policies show up there. The stock market seems to me to be as much about emotion about the future as it is about the current market situation. You hear this a lot in the news when they tell you that the market went up because of hopes about this or that policy or report, or it went down because of concerns about this or that development in Washington. It sounds to me to be equal parts the fog of emotion and a reflection of the economy. In other words, smoke and mirrors.

Having said that, the markets have tied or broken records that have stood for decades since Trump started, and they just keep climbing. Is it because he’s given investors reason to be hopeful about the future of the economy? You be the judge. Similarly, illegal immigrant crossings along the Mexican border were down by 67% between Inauguration Day and the end of March; a little over 2 months’ time. Is it because Trump was a candidate that talked tough about illegal immigration specifically?...