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What in the world is going on here?
CLICK THE PLAY BUTTON ABOVE TO LISTEN!
Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, contributed a very interesting piece to Forbes back in March entitled Housing Demand over the Next Decade. As you can no doubt tell by the title, this piece is packed to the brim with information – so much so that we decided to break it into two shots.
Let's start with the here and now first.
The United States has an inventory problem- this is not a theory, this is fact. For the whole of 2017, Yun expects existing home sales to reach 5.6 million, a slight increase of 2.2% from last years numbers. While home sales will not make much gains, Yun expects home prices will; with inventories still at grossly inadequate levels, there is only one direction for home prices to go - up.
Yun goes on to point out that the national median home price will likely rise by 4%-5%, but that we should not be surprised if they are to go even higher. At this very moment, the country needs around 1.6 million new housing starts, but roughly only 1.3 million units will be constructed according to the permit information and from labor and lot shortages facing the industry. If supply can't satisfy the demand, what little supply becomes available increases in value as competition fights to own it.
Yun points out a key statistic for us to be mindful of in local markets to understand if a particular metro area will outpace the national average growth rate for home prices. Historically speaking, there should be 1 new housing unit being constructed for every 2 new jobs added to the local job market.
Using this math to gauge the South Florida housing market, we find that according to MetroStudy's 2016 4th quarter update, annual housing starts for the full year of 2016 in South Florida totaled 7,893. This figure includes all new housing activity in Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade Counties. A Sun Sentinel article from last year pointed out that Broward County alone added 35,400 new jobs for 2016…
If the United States is facing an inventory problem, South Florida is facing an inventory crisis!
Stay tuned for part II…
Want to join us?
Thank you all for listening. We're always here to support you, so connect get with us on Facebook or LinkedIn @mattweaverspeaks.
If you have a real estate topic for our next shot or blog, please shoot us a message on Facebook @mattweaverspeaks, we love listener requests!
If you're in the South Florida area and want to meet for lunch, send me a message on LinkedIn and let's get something on the calendar!
We also have our next Elevate conference upcoming in October in Boynton Beach, so if you're looking for a great seminar on how to grow your real estate business by leveraging key mortgage concepts, send me a message on Facebook @mattweaverspeaks to secure your seat today!
The views of this blog, "Your Morning Shot" podcast, and on this site in general are solely those of the authors, Matt Weaver (NMLS-175651) and Zack Lewis, and do not express the views or opinions of Finance of America Mortgage.
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By Matt Weaver, Zack LewisCLICK THE PLAY BUTTON ABOVE TO LISTEN!
Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, Lawrence Yun, contributed a very interesting piece to Forbes back in March entitled Housing Demand over the Next Decade. As you can no doubt tell by the title, this piece is packed to the brim with information – so much so that we decided to break it into two shots.
Let's start with the here and now first.
The United States has an inventory problem- this is not a theory, this is fact. For the whole of 2017, Yun expects existing home sales to reach 5.6 million, a slight increase of 2.2% from last years numbers. While home sales will not make much gains, Yun expects home prices will; with inventories still at grossly inadequate levels, there is only one direction for home prices to go - up.
Yun goes on to point out that the national median home price will likely rise by 4%-5%, but that we should not be surprised if they are to go even higher. At this very moment, the country needs around 1.6 million new housing starts, but roughly only 1.3 million units will be constructed according to the permit information and from labor and lot shortages facing the industry. If supply can't satisfy the demand, what little supply becomes available increases in value as competition fights to own it.
Yun points out a key statistic for us to be mindful of in local markets to understand if a particular metro area will outpace the national average growth rate for home prices. Historically speaking, there should be 1 new housing unit being constructed for every 2 new jobs added to the local job market.
Using this math to gauge the South Florida housing market, we find that according to MetroStudy's 2016 4th quarter update, annual housing starts for the full year of 2016 in South Florida totaled 7,893. This figure includes all new housing activity in Indian River, St. Lucie, Martin, Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade Counties. A Sun Sentinel article from last year pointed out that Broward County alone added 35,400 new jobs for 2016…
If the United States is facing an inventory problem, South Florida is facing an inventory crisis!
Stay tuned for part II…
Want to join us?
Thank you all for listening. We're always here to support you, so connect get with us on Facebook or LinkedIn @mattweaverspeaks.
If you have a real estate topic for our next shot or blog, please shoot us a message on Facebook @mattweaverspeaks, we love listener requests!
If you're in the South Florida area and want to meet for lunch, send me a message on LinkedIn and let's get something on the calendar!
We also have our next Elevate conference upcoming in October in Boynton Beach, so if you're looking for a great seminar on how to grow your real estate business by leveraging key mortgage concepts, send me a message on Facebook @mattweaverspeaks to secure your seat today!
The views of this blog, "Your Morning Shot" podcast, and on this site in general are solely those of the authors, Matt Weaver (NMLS-175651) and Zack Lewis, and do not express the views or opinions of Finance of America Mortgage.