As the competitive cloud landscape is shifting, let’s take a look at some possibilities of what AWS might look like after they cross the chasm. 

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SHOW NOTES:

• 3 Steps into a 10k race (Episode 428 on Software Defined Talk)
• There’s no AI without the cloud (AWS CEO Adam Selipsky) - Decoder podcast
• What comes after Zoom? (Benedict Evans)
• Crossing the Chasm  - Geoffrey Moore
• Looking at Cloud hyperscaler CAPEX spending in Q2 2023 (Charles Fitzgerald)
• Amazon has over half of all ARM servers (The Register)

IF ONLY 10-15% OF APPS ARE IN THE CLOUD, HAVE WE CROSSED THE CHASM?

• AWS is $85B/yr business, after 17 years
• AWS claims that 10-15% of IT is in the cloud
• AWS has attracted startups, and mostly competes against legacy IT companies

AWS MOATS AND WHAT MIGHT COME NEXT?

• Amazon/AWS has always made large CAPEX investments
• AWS claims to have the largest farm of GPUs, and ARM servers
• Open source projects are moving to licensing that reduces competition from AWS
• AWS growth rate has been slowing since Q4 2021
• Innovation? Application Portfolio? Pricing vs. Profitability?
• AWS has done limited acquisitions and partners are kept at arms-length (vs. OpenAI / MSFT)
• AWS seems to be behind in the AI race, although still very early in the market maturity
• AWS doesn’t have a large set of “owned/branded” applications
• What does a future AWS look like that is mostly infrastructure? 

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