What Just Happened?

The risk of a successful high-impact attack on European soil is increasing. As Russian hybrid operations escalate, how close is Europe to more open confrontation?

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Sibylline’s Head of Global Analysis, Edward Johnson, is joined by Associate Analyst for Europe, Annabel Walker, and Europe Analyst, Caspar von der Schulenburg, to examine what the recent arrests near RAF Fairford reveal about the evolving threat facing the UK and Europe.

They explore why the UK, Germany and Poland sit at different points on the spectrum of Russian grey-zone activity, what is driving Moscow’s increasing tolerance for risk and potential lethality, and why the distinction between hybrid warfare and more open confrontation is becoming increasingly difficult to define.

They also examine the challenge of attributing grey-zone attacks, the sectors most exposed to escalating activity, and why Sibylline now assesses a realistic possibility of more open confrontation between Russia and NATO by mid-2027.

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The US still leads the global AI race, but China is closing the gap. Could the competition itself make AI more dangerous?

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline’s Chief Analyst, Sam Olsen, and Lead Analyst for Technology and Geopolitics, Jake James, to explore the potential existential risks of AI, why US-China strategic competition could make meaningful safeguards harder to achieve, and whether the UK could play a role in bridging the divide.

They also examine why AI may be harder to contain than nuclear weapons, the different risks posed by frontier and open-weight models, and what it could take for Washington and Beijing to cooperate on AI safety.

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The Iran-US conflict has evolved significantly over the past seven months, creating strategic, economic and societal consequences both inside Iran and across the wider region.

In this episode, Samuel McVicar speaks with Sibylline Principal Middle East and Africa Analyst Megan Sutcliffe about the current state of the conflict, how it has evolved and what could come next. Megan explores Iran's internal dynamics, the wider regional implications of the war and the potential scenarios that could shape its next phase.

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An attempted mutiny in Niger has exposed growing tensions inside the country’s military regime, raising fresh questions about General Tiani’s grip on power and the loyalties of the armed forces.

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline Senior Sub-Saharan Africa Analyst Benedict Manzin and Dr Alia Brahimi, Senior Fellow with the Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council and host of the Guns for Hire podcast, to examine the events surrounding the mutiny and what they reveal about Niger’s political and security landscape.

Interested in hearing more from Dr Alia? Check out her podcast and Substack:

Guns for Hire Podcast: Guns for Hire podcast

Alia's Substack: https://highlyirregular.substack.com/

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#Niger #Russia #AfricaCorps #Sahel #Geopolitics

In this episode of What Just Happened?, host Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline's Lead Europe-Eurasia Analyst Alexander Lord to examine the political tensions emerging inside Ukraine as the war continues.

The discussion explores former Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov’s call for wartime elections, the political fallout from his dismissal and the broader debate over how Ukraine should balance democratic accountability with the demands of prolonged conflict. Alexander also outlines the scale of corruption within defence procurement and why allegations involving figures close to President Volodymyr Zelensky could become increasingly difficult for his government to contain.

With Ukraine approaching another critical stage of the war, the episode asks whether political pressure, corruption concerns and questions over elections could begin to affect the country’s ability to maintain unity and sustain its war effort.

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A drone carrying explosives penetrated security at Leipzig Halle Airport in Germany and struck a Ukrainian-owned Antonov aircraft. Its detonator failed, potentially preventing civilian casualties.

In this episode of What Just Happened?, host Sibylline analyst Caspar von der Schulenburg joins Samuel McVicar to examine the incident and what it could signal about the evolution of Russian grey zone tactics in Europe. The discussion explores the drone's sophistication, weaknesses in current counter-drone defences, and the broader implications for European security. If deliberate attacks against targets in NATO territory become more common, governments and businesses may need to rethink how they protect critical infrastructure and civilian sites.

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 #Russia #Ukraine #NATO #Germany #Drones #Security #Geopolitics

What does a major primary victory in Michigan tell us about the future of the US Democratic Party? In this episode of What Just Happened?, host Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline North America Analyst Claire Brady and George King IV, Vice Chair of Democrats Abroad UK, to examine the rise of socialist politics within the Democratic Party. The discussion explores Abdul El-Sayed's victory in Michigan, his platform of Medicare for All, higher taxes on wealthy Americans and removing corporate money from politics, and what his success could mean for the wider Democratic coalition.

Claire and George consider whether this represents a genuine ideological shift within the party, how socialist candidates can appeal to voters beyond the Democratic base and what the movement could mean for the future of American politics.

Remember to vote: Request Absentee Ballots for US Citizens | VoteFromAbroad.org

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A conflict on the Red Sea is heating up again and, like the Strait of Hormuz, could have massive implications for global supply chains.

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Samuel McVicar is joined by Middle East, North Africa and Turkey Analyst Owen Williams to examine the sharp escalation in tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen's Houthi movement. Following fresh missile and drone attacks, threats against Saudi energy infrastructure and a renewed focus on the Red Sea, the discussion explores what is driving this deterioration and what it could mean for the region.

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What did the Strait of Hormuz crisis reveal about the future of global security? More than many realise.

In this special episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Professor Alessio Patalano of King's College London, former Royal Navy Commander Tom Sharpe OBE and Sibylline Geoeconomic Advisor Stewart Paterson to examine the strategic lessons emerging from one of the world's most important maritime chokepoints.

The discussion explores why governments and businesses remain vulnerable despite decades of warning, how new technologies are changing the balance between navies and non-state actors and why economic resilience, military planning and international law are becoming increasingly intertwined. The panel also considers what the Strait of Hormuz teaches us about the future of global trade and the next generation of geopolitical risk.

Request our latest Global Chokepoints report here: Report Request: Global Chokepoints - Assessing Cascading Impacts and Preparing for Future Shocks - S…

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#Geopolitics #MaritimeSecurity #Hormuz #GlobalTrade #NationalSecurity #SupplyChains #PoliticalRisk

The transatlantic alliance has shaped global security for generations. But are the United States and Europe beginning to drift apart?

In this episode of What Just Happened?, Marco Giannangeli is joined by Sibylline's Lead Europe-Eurasia Analyst Alexander Lord and Lead Americas Analyst Lewis Galvin to examine the future of one of the world's most important strategic partnerships.

The discussion explores why economic and military decoupling is becoming a serious policy debate, how Washington's growing focus on China is reshaping its priorities and why Europe is being pushed to take greater responsibility for its own defence. The episode also examines what these shifts could mean for NATO, regional security and the future of Western cooperation.

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#Geopolitics #NATO #Security #PoliticalRisk