You’ll see me pause in this video to check a news feed for current US/Iran negotiation updates. As soon as I pressed ‘stop’ on my video camera, a story popped up saying that Aragchi has left Islamabad. If the ceasefire is indefinite on the American side, and if the Iranians aren’t keen to go into a negotiation that might require significant concessions; why stay?

By the time I was done uploading, President Trump had told Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner to stay at home (apparently no need to say that JD Vance was staying home). In his call to unofficial White House spokesman Barak Ravid, POTUS said, ‘we have all the cards’, which presumably means that the Strait of Hormuz remains successfully sealed and gasoline will hit a fiver a gallon in America.

A week ago I said to keep an eye out for ceasefire violations, and of course they’ve been notable but trivial. Notable in that there doesn’t appear to be an American willingness to start rocketing Iran again; trivial in the sense that nobody appears to notice Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Lebanon firing away like billy-o. As to the Iranians mining Hormuz more? If the Strait is closed, who cares?

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