AFTER THE VIRUS - IN S.E.QUEENSLAND

What Queensland wants: opportunities for a rapid and socially just low carbon transition

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GUEST: Dr. Amanda Cahill CEO of The Next Economy not for profit organisation

Introduction to this episode:

At the time of recording of this episode, in early November 2020, the international debate and research on the opportunity to create a simultaneous COVID-19 and 'climate positive' recovery was gathering pace.

New research work from a British, German and American collaboration, published in the Journal Science, pointed to the excellent economic leverage that could be achieved by spending relatively small amounts of COVID-19 recovery monies to achieve a well- targeted, simultaneous acceleration of the urgently needed transition to a low carbon future.

To use the language of the researchers: their new analysis showed that an ambitious path to a 1.5°C world (that is, one of the global climate temperature safety boundaries outlined in the 2015 Paris Climate accords). That boundary is well within reach-  if just a fraction of COVID-19 funding is invested in a ‘climate-positive’ recovery, with the dual aims of stimulating the global economy and accelerating the deployment of low-carbon energy supply and energy efficiency measures. This could be achieved, for example, via direct stimulus and investments as well as via supporting policies such as incentives and rebates.

In Australia, on the long term, deficit side of the cost-benefit equation of taking effective climate change action, a report by the influential Deloitte Access Economics consultancy pointed to the massive economic hit that the Australian national economy would experience if it did not greatly increase its ambition on climate change control measures.

The Deloitte report – A new choice: Australia’s climate for growth, modelled the impacts on Australians of not addressing the existential threat of climate change. It reconfirmed the findings of earlier, international research by the likes of economist Nicholas Stern in the UK, that doing nothing, realistically, on climate change, and by not taking climate change science advice seriously enough, will come with huge economic costs. The three key take home messages of the Deloitte report are that

  • Today, more than 30% of employed Australians and over 30% of national income sit in industries exposed to economic disruption and risk from climate change and unplanned economic transition
  • By 2070 – in the lifetime of Australians in their 20s, 30s and 40s today – the economic cost of doing nothing on climate change is an economy which is 6% smaller, has suffered a $3.4 trillion loss in GDP in present value terms, and has 880,000 fewer jobs
  • In contrast, a low carbon recovery, delivering net zero GHG emissions by 2050 – that a recovery consistent with keeping global warming to 1.5°C, could add $680 billion (in present value terms) and grow the economy by 2.6% by 2070, adding more than 250,000 jobs.

    • A similar theme: one which emphasises the considerable twin benefits that a low carbon economic transition could help achieve, by tackling climate change effectively at the same time that it develops and expands innovative, climate friendly new opportunities for job creation over coming decades – and the far greater economic losses which will be experienced if we do not, have also helped set the context for a raft of other, well-researched Australian national reports produced in 2020 by the likes of Beyond Zero Emissions, the Climate Council and ClimateWorks. These reports have all pointed to the great potential to create tens to hundreds of thousands of low carbon economy jobs nationally over coming years.

    In the state of Queensland, another forward looking document, exploring the potential for economic innovation and associated job creation across a diverse range of economic sectors, is the What Queensland Wants report, published by The Next Economy organisation in August 2020. One of the key contributors to that report was Dr Amanda Cahill, the guest interviewed on this episode of the After the Virus podcast series.

     SELECTED SUMMARY OF TALKING POINTS

    The background to preparing The Next Economy’s ‘What Queensland Wants’ report:

    • The rapidly changing economic and political backdrop to economic stimulus approaches pre and post COVID-19 in Queensland.
  • The wide consensus amongst diverse stakeholder interests across the state on the need to diversify the economy whilst factoring in climate change challenges; and the importance of moving to greater renewable energy generation and use.

    • Some implications for the S.E. Queensland region

    • There is already a large installed renewable energy capacity in the region – with further stimulus planned, for example, through implementation of the Southern Renewable Energy Zone covering this region, and the possibility of associated renewable energy precincts. The opportunities for new low carbon industries and associated job creation which could follow from this – for example to power the increasing demand for cloud storage data hubs.
  • Some of the challenges for this boom in renewable energy generation in S.E. Queensland will be in finding more innovative uses for the cheaper power it promises and ensuring that grid interconnection capability and stability is achieved to allow for its export to other parts of the country.
  • These regional opportunities and challenges map onto the wider national strategic debates taking place over Australia’s potential to become a renewable energy superpower – using a greatly increased level of renewable energy generation to power everything from data hubs to green hydrogen manufacture, from  a green metals diversified mining sector to the export of  our surplus renewable  energy  to Asian neighbours via undersea cable.

    • The future of the low carbon economic transition in S.E. Queensland

    • As with the rest of the state – all of the initiatives mentioned in the podcast discussion and in the ‘What Queensland Wants’ report are already in play, either as strategic policy, plans or designated initiatives.
  • What is now required – as articulated in a wide-ranging stakeholder consensus outlined in the report – is firm and decisive government leadership and action to help implement the existing low carbon’ road map’ into the future.
  • Stakeholders made it clear that a neoliberal ‘market wisdom’ based approach to moving beyond business as usual modes of development so as to implement this road map was not an option.
  • The opportunities for a government lead, speedy transition toward a prosperous, low carbon state economy powered largely by renewable energy within a decade is more than possible. As evidenced for instance by the speed at which COVID-19 recovery stimulus money was found and directed in this past year. And given the example of the speed at which another Queensland industrial sector (LNG) had been mobilised in the past, and the ‘just transition’ lessons to be learned from that mobilisation.

    • RESOURCES MENTIONED IN THE DISCUSSION

    The Next Economy report: What Queensland Wants  published August 2020

    Deloitte Access Economics report – A new choice: Australia’s climate for growth published November 2020

     

    GUEST AND CONTACT DETAILS:

    Guest: Dr. Amanda Cahill, CEO of  The Next Economy

    W http://nexteconomy.com.au/

    Householders’ Options to Protect the Environment (HOPE):

    T 07 4639 2135 E [email protected] W http://www.hopeaustralia.org.au/

    F https://www.facebook.com/Householders.Options.to.Protect.the.Environment/

    PRODUCTION:

    Produced for HOPE by Andrew Nicholson. This episode recorded in Toowoomba, S.E. Queensland, Australia on November 4th, 2020.

    Artwork: Daniela Dal'Castel       Incidental Music: James Nicholson

     

     

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