For the Iranian soccer team, It all seemed to good to be true. Iran flew through World Cup qualification, then cemented a relatively undemanding group, and secured two matches in Los Angeles—a city with such a vibrant Iranian-American population that it’s often known as Tehrangeles.

Now, the nation is suddenly embroiled in a war with the co-hosts.

There’s now a question of whether Iran can and will want to participate in a World Cup on U.S. soil. The country is well within its rights to as a qualified team; no team has withdrawn since 1950, and that was not for political reasons.

But days after the U.S. struck Iran, Donald Trump said “I really don’t care” if Iran participates, driving a real possibility that the nation might not be welcomed. With a travel ban already in place, FIFA will likely now have to be ready with a back-up plan.

So what happens now? What does it mean for tournament logistics, for security, and for the Iranian-American community?

I talked to Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a fellow for the Middle East at the Baker Institute at Rice University in Houston, and author of the recent book Kingdom of Football: Saudi Arabia and the Remaking of World Soccer.

00:28 Iran’s Dream Draw and LA Spotlight

01:27 Strikes Put Qualification at Risk

02:06 Who Can Block Iran

02:50 Meet the Gulf Football Expert

05:55 Why Football Matters in Iran

07:47 No Precedent for Host vs Participant

09:58 If Iran Withdraws Who Replaces Them

11:00 FIFA vs US Government Power

15:48 Access and Visa Ban Fallout

17:46 Security Threats and Funding Gaps

20:07 US vs Iran Matchup and Diaspora Divides

24:28 Gulf Region Events in the Crossfire

27:20 Vision 2030 and Saudi’s World Cup Plans

28:26 Final Thoughts

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