Most forecasting goals focus solely on accuracy, but Harrison Katz reveals why understanding the true purpose of forecasts can transform how organizations make decisions. From leading Airbnb’s demand predictions to academic research, he uncovers the nuanced role forecasts play beyond numbers—and why misaligned goals and governance can distort the entire process.

In this episode, Harrison shares his nonlinear journey from dropping out of high school at 15 to leading Airbnb’s forecasting strategies across hundreds of global markets. He discusses how COVID-19 exposed the limitations of traditional models and taught invaluable lessons about system agility, regime shifts, and the importance of separating models for flow versus lead times, and not for supply versus demand. Harrison breaks down the often-overlooked concept of forecast governance, emphasizing that forecasts are not just numbers—they are political, strategic, and even behavioral tools that influence outcomes.