Never? Or when you've decided the effort is not worth it?

Can both be true?

The sunk cost fallacy is about persisting with something simply because you're invested in it. Either in terms of time or money.

The sunk cost fallacy becomes perseverance when it succeeds. Two concepts that are the polar opposite of each other transition perfectly from one to the other.

Evidence can be produced to support both concepts. And those arguing for and against will be right as well. It depends entirely on what you believe and how your motivational levels operate. 

mRNA vaccines were a sunk cost fallacy until the pandemic hit. Then, it became a story of perseverance.

Neeraj Chopra as a kid in Punjab throwing a javelin for years with some success along the way could have been a sunk cost fallacy story. Until Gold at the Tokyo Olympics made that the perseverance story.

Nassim Taleb's Black Swan concept for years was the perfect example of sunk cost fallacy. He kept losing money in the stock market in the strong belief that a crash was certain.

And in a single day, when the markets crashed, he made an insane amount of money. That changed everything.

He became a celebrated author, analyst and his words took on an Oracle-like status.

In a sense, it's like proverbs contradicting themselves. An Idle mind is the Devil's workshop is completely at odds with 'Invest a few moments in thinking. It will pay good interest'.

Which side are you leaning towards?

Oil companies want to change their stripes

If the world moves to renewable energy, what happens to the oil giants?

You don't need to worry about them.

They're already making investments in renewables quietly, away from the spotlight.

There's a revealing fact in the article.

OPEC projected that electrical vehicles would be 1% of the world's sales by 2040. But that projection came to pass in 2016.

Now GM and Ford have said they will have an all-electric vehicle lineup by 2035.

That gives the oil companies slightly over a decade to get their act right and prepare for a dip in the overall oil market.

Not much is going to change right away. Coal companies still run a lot of the power plants in the world.

Change is not easy - especially at this scale. So, the changes will be apparent in a few decades from now.

Petrol and diesel vehicles will not go away. In fact, the ones that survive will be far more efficient and the network of fuel stations may reduce over time.

But people are slow to change. If you did a poll of people looking at electric vehicles as their next purchase, the figure would be bigger than it was a decade ago.

So, oil companies may simply swap some of their fuel stations and change them into electric charging stations.

How soon that happens remains to be seen.

Will online video game restrictions work?

China has mandated that children below the age of 18 can only play online games for a total of 3 hours on weekends - one hour a day.

The platforms have to identify logins, ensure that the directives are followed and maintain records.

Will it work?

What prevents children from persuading their parents to login and get over the restriction?

Or use it as a bargaining chip for spending more time studying?

Question is whether this will result in better behavior or reduce the time spent playing games.

Both seem remote.

Children who already spend large amounts of time will not change tracks. Instead, they may switch to offline options.

Services to prevent tracking will find a fresh market. It won't be obvious but like India's alcohol advertising, no one is fooled with brands selling glasses and CD covers.

The problem is real. There are too many children caught in the web and the addictive pursuit of online gaming.

The games themselves have been designed to keep the gamers hooked.

So, a forced separation will result in unpredictable effects.

When children have too much time on their hands and little to do, the hope is that they will take to outdoor sports and make new friends.

That won't happen overnight.

And parents having to deal with a rebellious child at home because the gaming tap has been turned off may find parenting gets tricky.

Was it better to have them hooked to games rather than stalk around the house in a surly mood?

That may be the inspiration for a whole new game!

Every week, I'll plant a few ideas in your mind on branding, behavior and markets. Triggers for your thoughts. Spread the word to your friends. All you have to do is click the link and enter an email address.

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