Tennessee Today

When to Trust a Political Poll (and When to Be Skeptical)


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Every election season, you see polls that contradict each other. One says Candidate A is ahead by 10 points, another says it's a dead heat, and a third says Candidate B is surging. So which one is right?

Randy Ellison is president of Targoz Market Research and has spent decades conducting polls for political campaigns and Fortune 500 companies. In this episode, we break down how polling actually works, what makes a poll credible (and what makes it unreliable), and how to be an informed consumer of polling data so you can make educated decisions as a voter.

Key Takeaways:

  • Why different polls about the same race show completely different results
  • Red flags that a poll is designed to manipulate rather than inform
  • How AI is changing polling
  • What to look for when you see poll results on the news or social media
  • Why a poll that nailed the presidential race might be totally wrong about your local election
  • How pollsters decide who to call, and why that matters more than you think
  • About the Guest:

    Randy Ellison is the president of Targoz Market Research, based in Nashville. He holds a degree in economics from the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, and a graduate degree in practical political management from George Washington University. His firm works with both private sector clients and public affairs/political campaigns, allowing him to apply insights from both worlds. Randy has been conducting polling and market research for over two decades.

    Tennessee Today is your inside look at state government: what’s happening, why it matters, and how it affects you in your daily life. I break down key legislative topics, have important discussions with special guests, share my experiences in the Senate, and give you a firsthand perspective on how policies come to life. You’ll get the information you need straight from the source, so you can stay informed, engaged, and empowered! Share your questions for future episodes by emailing [email protected]!

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