Market Decline: Cryptocurrency markets have cooled, experiencing a 15% drop over the last two months from a mid-March peak.
Neutral Sentiment: Investor enthusiasm has shifted from euphoria to cautious neutrality due to recent market conditions.
Economic Context: Bitcoin's price decline coincides with stronger US dollar and equities, indicating a possible decoupling from traditional assets.
Central Banks' Influence: Global central banks, are leaning towards lower interest rates, which could impact all markets.
Stable Funding Rates: Despite high digital asset prices, futures exchanges show low funding rates and little excess/leverage.
Public Disengagement: Interest in altcoins and NFTs has waned among the general public, with large institutions now driving market demand.
Bullish Scenario: Continued demand for Bitcoin ETFs could stabilize and potentially boost the market to new highs.
Bearish Possibility: If the bull market ends, a prolonged bear phase could significantly reduce market activity and cause dev exodus.
Seasonal Slowdown: "Sell in May and go away" potential for a quieter trading period during summer, although foundational market strength remains solid.
Potential Rebound: Autumn 2024 may be key in determining if the market can rally to our dreams and expectations or if a long term bear trend will prevail.
From the newsletter at: https://bachini.substack.com/p/when-will-the-dip-stop-dipping
More information available at: https://jamesbachini.com