Operation Epic Fury is over. The administration says it was a decisive victory. The intelligence community is leaking a different story — faster than CENTCOM can testify the official line.

The U.S. won the battle. The biggest gain went to the country that wasn’t in the fight.

That sentence is the whole case file. The video walks you through how I got there in 90 seconds.

I read both leaked Washington Post assessments — the May 7 CIA report and the May 13 Joint Staff report. I pulled Adm. Brad Cooper’s May 14 Senate testimony. I ran the numbers the Center for Strategic and International Studies put on what we expended: roughly half the Patriot interceptor stockpile, more than half the THAAD interceptors, more than 45% of Precision Strike Missiles. One to four years to replenish. The same window in which Pacific deterrence against China would need to be at full strength.

If you want every source, every score, and the audit log, the Case File has 124 sources, six undisputed background facts, and nine scored claims — including the new one tracking how CENTCOM’s public destruction numbers and the leaked CIA assessment cannot both fully describe what happened. For the 5-minute reading version, the Facts & Sense briefing is the shortcut.

This is Part 4 of the Iran arc. If you’re new, Part 1 — War Powers, Part 2 — Minab School Strike, and Part 3 — Iran Intelligence Gap are the road that got us here.

If this kind of analysis is useful to you, subscribe to The Exhausted Moderate. One person, no team, no sponsors. The reason it’s free is that information that helps you tell signal from spin shouldn’t live behind a paywall. Facts & Sense from the Middle of the Mess.

Here’s the record. I’m going to keep watching.

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