Why a forced ceasefire in Ukraine is a terrible idea - with Fabian Hoffmann

Originally Streamed February 16, 2025 

Tune in every Sunday at21:00 Kyiv time,20:00 Berlin time, 2 PM New York time, for another episode of Tochnyi Weekly on our YouTube Channel! /@Tochnyi

(To convert 21:00 Kyiv time to your time):

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Panel:

⭐ Fabian Hoffmann, @FRHoffmann1

▶️ Joseph,@josephthomason.tochnyi.info

▶️ Colby Badhwar, @ColbyBadhwar

▶️ Erlend, @eDrotning - @edrotning.tochnyi.info

▶️ Geschlittert, @geschlittert.bsky.social

▶️ German Aid to Ukraine, @deaidua (pre-recorded)

Program Guide:

00:00:00 Intro 

00:00:59 Welcome 

00:01:42 Why a forced peace is bad 

00:06:14 Can Russia re-arm in 1-2 years? 

00:12:46 Russia's next move? 

00:15:00 Can NATO defend its borders in the near future? 

00:17:28 deterrence now more effective than later? 

00:21:40 Peace through strength - or risk through weakness 

00:25:04 The chances of Russia becoming irrational 

00:27:45 American projections on Ukraine 

00:28:51 What does a Security Guarantee look like for Ukraine? 

00:33:38 The possibility of casualties in a European peacekeeping force 

00:36:09 The political will to maintain European peacekeepers 

00:39:34 How would the situation change if Ukraine had Nuclear deterrence? 

00:52:27 Could Europe help Ukraine hold its own without the US? 

01:07:28 How long could Ukraine survive on its own? 

01:10:15 Wrap up 

Fabian Hoffmann is a Doctoral Research Fellow at the Oslo Nuclear Project (ONP), University of Oslo, specializing in missile technology, nuclear strategy, and defense policy. His PhD research explores the strategic-level effects of conventional long-range strike weapons, analyzing their implications for conventional and nuclear deterrence.

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