Zephyr's Adjusted for Risk

Why do Humans Struggle at Picking Stocks?


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Ryan Nauman hosts Zephyr’s Adjusted for Risk podcast from Lake Tahoe and interviews Jacob Ayres-Thomson, founder and CEO of 3AI, about how AI is shifting wealth management from understanding AI to implementing it for investing. Jacob explains 3AI’s “Alpha Intelligence,” which targets equity outperformance through predictive insights delivered for people, quant models, and AI-powered funds/indices. He describes his background in equities trading, stochastic asset modeling, and machine learning, and why humans struggle with stock picking due to noisy markets, insufficient data for reliable learning, and benchmark effects driven by market-cap concentration. They discuss AI’s role in increasing market efficiency, removing the analysis bottleneck by condensing vast data into forecasts and explainable research, and how advisors can use robust, statistically tested AI signals and indices, including products built with S&P Global.

Learn more about Zephyr here.

Learn more about 3AI here.

00:00 Welcome to the Podcast

01:18 Meet Jacob Ayres-Thomson

02:00 What 3AI Does

05:55 Why Stock Picking Is Hard

08:24 Learning From Noisy Markets

11:28 Speculation and Market Cycles

14:28 Stocks as a Never Ending Game

15:25 How AI Changes Investing

17:38 Alpha Intelligence in Practice

20:01 AI as the Analysis Engine

21:14 Wrapping Up the AI Thesis

22:03 AI Is Not One Thing

23:39 Markets Get More Efficient

25:44 Where Alpha Still Exists

26:52 Humans Plus AI Together

29:16 Alpha Intelligence Scoring

29:59 Stock Specific Factor Weights

33:47 Causality Versus Correlation

37:30 Moneyball Investing Analogy

39:26 Advisors Using AI Tools

41:25 Due Diligence On Forecasts

42:36 Where To Learn More

44:34 Podcast Wrap Up

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Zephyr's Adjusted for RiskBy Zephyr