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Most CHROs lose credibility not because they fail, but because they succeed at the wrong things. They deliver what was asked, show up prepared, complete the work. And still, when critical conversations happen, the CEO routes elsewhere. This isn't a relationship problem. This is a forecast problem.

Jackson Lynch breaks down three ways CHROs train CEOs to discount their judgment—and five plays that create predictable accuracy.

What You'll Learn

The forecast problem: CEO deciding whether to move CFO out? They talk to board chair, not CHRO. Product org missing dates? They pull in COO. CHRO gets sanitized version two weeks later. Why? CEO cannot predict what CHRO will see.

Three ways CHROs lose credibility:

1. Overpromising timelines (say 4 weeks, deliver in 6)
2. Delaying hard truths (waiting to name underperformance)
3. Confusing activity with impact (updates disconnected from decisions)

What builds credibility: Being predictably accurate about what you can deliver, what you see as risk, what connects to business outcomes.

Five Plays to Create Predictable Accuracy

1. Optimize timelines for reliability, not speed Ask "how long when two people are on vacation?" not "how fast could this go?"

2. Name risk before you're asked "I'm seeing a pattern. Decisions are delayed, team escalates around them. That's creating drag in three areas..."

3. Connect every update to a CEO decision Ask "what decision does this inform?" If none, don't bring it.

4. Build a talent risk dashboard CEO actually looks at Answer: Do I have talent to execute strategy? Capability gaps? Succession risk in pivotal roles? Decision velocity by function?

5. Create standing "watching" agenda item Reserve 5 minutes weekly: "Three things I'm watching that might become decisions." Patterns forming, not problems yet.

Key Quotes

"Credibility is built on whether the CEO can predict your forecast. When they can, they pull you in earlier. When they can't, they route around you."

"Every time you miss a deadline, you're teaching the CEO your estimate is unreliable on everything else."

"The goal is to make it impossible for the CEO to make a critical decision without first asking what you see that they don't."

"Precision beats speed. Conservative timelines you hit build more trust than aggressive timelines you don't."

Four Takeaways

1. Credibility is built on whether CEO can predict your forecast
2. Most CHROs lose credibility by succeeding at wrong things
3. Goal is to make it impossible for CEO to decide without you
4. Precision beats speed—conservative timelines build trust

Until next time: Keep raising the bar, keep building predictable accuracy, and keep climbing.

Resources

• My Talent Sherpa: mytalentsherpa.com
• Talent Sherpa Substack: talentsherpa.substack.com
• Scott Morris / Propulsion AI: getpropulsion.ai
• Dripify: try.dripify.com/talentsherpa