In 1971, Boeing laid off 44,000 engineers in 18 months. The aerospace industry is still paying for it — they're projecting a shortage of over a million engineers by 2030, and the cohort that would now be the senior bench was simply never hired.

Last year, S&P 500 companies cut 400,000 jobs — the first net decline since 2016 — and the specific pattern of who's being cut, and why, looks uncomfortably familiar. At firms that adopted AI, junior employment fell 7 to 10% within six quarters. Senior employment kept rising. The pipeline isn't slowing. It's stopping.

In this episode of In The Loop, I'm working through the data on junior employment at AI-adopting firms, the economic logic that makes cutting entry-level roles feel rational, and why I think that logic is setting up a shortage that will look obvious in hindsight.

I also take on Tim O'Reilly's counter-argument — his historical case that every programming wave expanded demand rather than destroyed it — and explain why I think he's right about 2035 and wrong about the cohort that's supposed to get there.

⏭️ Episode highlights

(01:15) – The Boeing billboard and what it cost

(03:00) – 400,000 jobs: where the cuts are concentrated

(05:00) – Why junior work is separable — and senior work isn't(07:00) – The radiology lesson: why strong bundles hold

(08:45) – O'Reilly's wave argument and the Jevons paradox

(11:30) – Where the optimistic case runs out of road

(13:00) – The 43-point gap: atrophy you can't feel

(14:45) – IBM, Publicis, and who's betting on the pipeline

🔗 Links & resources

• Boeing Bust (1969–1971) — HistoryLink.org: https://www.historylink.org/file/20923
• ISG — Aerospace and defense talent gap by 2030: https://isg-one.com/articles/why-the-aerospace-and-defense-industry-faces-a-million-person-talent-gap-by-2030---and-what-it-means-for-innovation
• Hosseini & Lichtinger, "Generative AI as seniority-biased technological change" (SSRN, Aug 2025): https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=5425555
• Brynjolfsson, Chandar & Chen, "Canaries in the coal mine?" (Stanford Digital Economy Lab, Aug 2025): https://digitaleconomy.stanford.edu/publication/canaries-in-the-coal-mine-six-facts-about-the-recent-employment-effects-of-artificial-intelligence/
• Tim O'Reilly, "The end of programming as we know it": https://www.oreilly.com/radar/the-end-of-programming-as-we-know-it/
• Tim O'Reilly & Aaron Levie, "The world needs more software engineers" (Apr 2026): https://www.oreilly.com/radar/the-world-needs-more-software-engineers/
• Tim O'Reilly, "The missing half of the AI economy": https://www.oreilly.com/radar/ai-and-the-next-economy/

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