The conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel is entering a far more complex and dangerous phase than many expected.

In this conversation, I’m joined by Ali Vaez - Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President of the International Crisis Group to examine what is actually happening behind the headlines. Why the war has shifted into a grinding war of attrition, why Iran’s leadership prepared for a long confrontation rather than a quick collapse, and how the balance of power inside Iran may now be shifting toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

We also discuss the growing divergence between U.S. and Israeli strategic objectives, the limits of military escalation, and the wider regional risks—from Kurdish separatism to the possibility of a broader regional conflict drawing in major powers.

If the fighting stops, it may only produce a fragile ceasefire, not a real resolution.

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