As of June 13, the number of confirmed American Covid-19 cases has reached 2.09 million. Through a review of the development process of the pandemic, it can be clearly seen that in the first quarter, the impact of the aviation industry was mainly concentrated in March. At the end of January, the first patient was diagnosed in the United States. Passenger screening was started at major airports in the United States, and then three major U.S. airlines were grounded on Sino-U.S.

routes. At the end of February, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention stated that sooner or later the outbreak would occur in the United States. Started to realize the seriousness of the pandemic and began to adjust the annual development expectation; in March, the United States expected an explosion of newly confirmed cases throughout the country. In mid-March, it announced the restriction of passage between European countries, and the transatlantic routes were affected, which marked that the impact to the industry has escalated, until the US domestic market has gradually fallen, and the aviation industry has completely entered the dark night.

In the first quarter of 2020, the operating revenues of the three major US airlines decreased by 17%-19% year-on-year, and the operating losses amounted to US$410 million to US$2.5 billion.

At the same time as the revenue has dropped sharply, the airline company has a very high proportion of fixed costs to the total cost.

The difference in the amount of loss between the three major US airlines is also due to the difference in cost control capabilities.

Affected by the pandemic, the operating income of the three major US airlines fell by more than 15% year-on-year compared to the first quarter of 2019. American Airlines’ operating income in the first quarter was US$8.52 billion, down 19.4% year-on-year; US United Airlines’ operating income was US$7.98 billion, down 16.8% year-on-year; Delta Airlines’ operating income was US$8.59 billion, down 18% year-on-year.

Among the operating income, both passenger and freight revenue declined to varying degrees. In terms of passenger revenue, the three major airlines fell closer, all from 9 billion to 7 billion. American Airlines, United Airlines, and Delta’s passenger revenue declined by 20%, 19%, and 18%, respectively; The decline in freight revenue is quite different. American Airlines and Delta have dropped from 220 million and 190 million levels to 150 million, with a decline of 33% and 21%, while United Airlines has only fallen from 290 million to 260 million. The range is 8%.

2019 Q1

2020 Q1

Year-on-year change

AIRLINES

PAX

CARGO

OTHERS

PAX

CARGO

OTHERS

PAX

CARGO

OTHERS

AMERICAN AIRLINES

96,6

2,2

7,1

76,8

1,5

6,9

-20 %

-33 %

-3 %

UNITED

87,3

2,9

5,8

70,9

2,6

6,5

-19 %

-8 %

12 %

DELTA AIR LINES

92,5

1,9

10,3

75,7

1,5

8,7

-18 %

-21 %

-15 %

Despite the decline in travel demand, various airlines have reduced capacity, but the passenger load factor still declined in the first quarter. The average load factor of American Airlines, United Airlines, and Delta Air Lines in the first quarter of this year were 72.7%, 70.9%, and 73.1% respectively. Compared with last year’s data (82.2%, 80.9%, and 82.7%), the decline rate was about 10%.

While revenues have fallen sharply, operating costs have not changed much over the same period. American Airlines’ operating costs have even increased, from US$10.21 billion in 2019 to US$11.06 billion, up 8%; United Airlines’ operating costs have dropped from US$9.09 billion in 2019 to US$8.95 billion, down 1.5% ; Delta Air Lines dropped from 9.45 billion US dollars to 9 billion US dollars, a decrease of 4.8%.

From the perspective of cost composition, fixed costs account for a very high proportion. Among the three airlines, labour costs accounted for the largest proportion, accounting for about 30% of the total cost; followed by j...