On March 23, 2025, Bloomberg reported, citing sources within the US administration, that the White House was seeking to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine by 20 April. Now last week, US special envoy Steve Witkoff flew to Moscow for direct talks with President Vladimir Putin. After the meeting, Witkoff told reporters that the Russian leader seemed open to a “lasting peace” agreement. However, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov played down expectations, warning that reaching an agreement “will not be easy” So what can we expect now? Could a ceasefire be reached by the end of the week?

To answer that, we need to dig deeper - into the systemic and domestic factors shaping the behaviour of the United States, Russia and Ukraine. These forces are essential to understanding what's driving each actor to the negotiating table, and what could ultimately make or break a deal.

Get full access to Geopolitically | Correct at geopoliticallycorrect.substack.com/subscribe