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Why Wall Street's AI Earnings Verdict Split Meta From Microsoft
Meta fell 10% on its CapEx guidance. Microsoft didn't move. Franklin Templeton's Chris Galipeau looks past the divergence to say that the AI trade isn't over, and lays out why.
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Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held his second press conference this week, and by his own account, he wants bond yields to do more of the Fed's talking. The bond market answered, then stocks sold off before clawing back part of the drop.
Chris Galipeau, Head Market Strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute, joins Steven Ehrlich to argue markets are overreacting, to Warsh's confusing debut, to Iran and oil, and to fears that AI spending is a bubble.
Galipeau cites the data: the S&P has gained 11% on average with a 76% hit rate in the year after every major conflict since 1929, Meta fell 10% on CapEx guidance while Microsoft's Azure growth held steady, and the Mag7 now lags the average stock by 20 points.
He argues for prediction markets using "Wisdom of Crowds" thinking, lays out his stop-loss discipline for protecting capital, and delivers his verdict: the AI trade is real, just early. Second inning, not the ninth.
Host:
Guest:
Timestamps
🏦 02:10 Chris Galipeau on his role building Franklin Templeton's twelve-month house view
🏛️ 03:31 Why Kevin Warsh's second Fed presser rattled the bond market
📱 12:22 Cape: Get 33% off your first six months of privacy-first mobile service at https://cape.co/unchained
🛢️ 13:40 Why the S&P averages 11% gains a year after major conflicts since 1929
🤖 23:44 Meta falls on CapEx guidance, Microsoft doesn't: reading the AI earnings split
🎲 34:13 Prediction markets, the 'Wisdom of Crowds,' and why belief moves prices
📊 42:49 The highest-conviction call: fading Mag Seven dominance
View all episodes
By UnchainedMeta fell 10% on its CapEx guidance. Microsoft didn't move. Franklin Templeton's Chris Galipeau looks past the divergence to say that the AI trade isn't over, and lays out why.
Sponsors
Cape: Your biggest crypto vulnerability isn't your wallet, it's your phone number. Cape is America's privacy-first mobile carrier that rotates your SIM identity daily and blocks SIM swaps before they happen. Get 33% off your first six months at https://cape.co/unchained (use code: UNCHAINED).
Heads up! If you haven't yet, be sure to subscribe to Bits + Bips on its dedicated channels. Follow us on Apple Podcasts, YouTube, Spotify, X, Unchained and wherever you get your podcasts.
🔥 Apple Podcasts - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bits-bips/id1827931786
🔥 YouTube - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCuKiSkbYrUOOEEiYQEVPniQ
🔥 Spotify - https://open.spotify.com/show/6aSBMrOyi33aVDCULJ9mjN?si=NTLk-jl5QGeytA6-2kxMVQ&nd=1&dlsi=42f0b13dd53c4ba0
🔥X - https://x.com/bitsandbips
🔥 Unchained - https://unchainedcrypto.com/bitsandbips/
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held his second press conference this week, and by his own account, he wants bond yields to do more of the Fed's talking. The bond market answered, then stocks sold off before clawing back part of the drop.
Chris Galipeau, Head Market Strategist at the Franklin Templeton Institute, joins Steven Ehrlich to argue markets are overreacting, to Warsh's confusing debut, to Iran and oil, and to fears that AI spending is a bubble.
Galipeau cites the data: the S&P has gained 11% on average with a 76% hit rate in the year after every major conflict since 1929, Meta fell 10% on CapEx guidance while Microsoft's Azure growth held steady, and the Mag7 now lags the average stock by 20 points.
He argues for prediction markets using "Wisdom of Crowds" thinking, lays out his stop-loss discipline for protecting capital, and delivers his verdict: the AI trade is real, just early. Second inning, not the ninth.
Host:
Guest:
Timestamps
🏦 02:10 Chris Galipeau on his role building Franklin Templeton's twelve-month house view
🏛️ 03:31 Why Kevin Warsh's second Fed presser rattled the bond market
📱 12:22 Cape: Get 33% off your first six months of privacy-first mobile service at https://cape.co/unchained
🛢️ 13:40 Why the S&P averages 11% gains a year after major conflicts since 1929
🤖 23:44 Meta falls on CapEx guidance, Microsoft doesn't: reading the AI earnings split
🎲 34:13 Prediction markets, the 'Wisdom of Crowds,' and why belief moves prices
📊 42:49 The highest-conviction call: fading Mag Seven dominance