By Phil Giraldi

The ceasefire in Gaza, if it can be called that in light of claims of violations coming from both Israeli and Palestinian sources, is seeking to establish common ground to enable moving forward from Phase One to Phase Two and beyond to what will actually become some kind of peace settlement between Israel and the Palestinians.

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With several weeks of ceasefire behind us, it is possible to begin to assess the actual situation on the ground to determine what will work and what will not. More important, it is critical to identify and weigh the possible red lines that will drive the actions of both sides, plus the foreign nations that have offered themselves as the guarantors of the process.

An assessment of the current situation provided by the media and independent observers concedes that the prime Israeli demand from Hamas, consisting of releasing all 20 living Israeli hostages plus turning over the estimated 50 or so bodies of dead hostages, has only been partially satisfied.

The living hostages are now back with their families and being celebrated by cheering crowds of Israelis, but the dead are a problem, as most of them were killed by Israeli bombing and are now buried beneath piles of rubble that the Palestinians have little in the way of heavy equipment to shift. Israel is already nevertheless blaming Hamas and the Gazans for the failure.

Israel is also complaining that Hamas is not disarming and that it is, in fact, rounding up and executing representatives of other Palestinian groups present in Gaza whom they believe collaborated with Israel during the fighting. Hamas says that to disarm would invite a renewal of the Israeli genocide and says it will not do so until there is a Palestinian governing body that will be in place to play a key role in Gaza reconstruction.

Of course, a Palestinian government of any kind leading inevitably to a Palestinian state is a red line for Israel, so the Trump plan has already avoided giving too much power to the hapless Gazans.

For their part, the Palestinians are complaining that the withdrawal of Israeli troops has been slow, that the promised food and medicine have been cut to half of the levels needed to end the starvation blockade, and Israeli soldiers have continued to shoot and kill Gazans searching for food or trying to return home, claiming that they were “suspicious.”

Despite the ceasefire coming into force, Israel has, in fact, committed dozens of ceasefire violations by shelling and shooting Palestinians, including when it struck targets in the southern Gaza Strip after it said its troops came under fire from Hamas militants.

Five Palestinians were also reported killed, and a family of 11, trying to return to their former home, were also killed by the Israeli army. In the wake of the massacre of the family, which included seven children and three women, accomplished by firing a tank shell at their vehicle, Israeli sources claimed that they had crossed what Israel has referred to as a self-proclaimed “Yellow Line.”

Since the ceasefire went into effect on Oct. 11, at least 38 Palestinians have been killed by Israeli attacks, and 146 have been wounded.

The line, beyond which Israeli forces have withdrawn, is unmarked or sign-posted and is basically a killing field. The “Yellow Line” separates areas under continuing Israeli military control—which is described as a security zone that includes more than 50% of Gaza—as permitted in Donald Trump’s Gaza ceasefire plan.

Israeli “Defense” Minister Israel Katz, in the wake of the killing of the Palestinian family, has ordered Israeli forces to physically place warning signs to the approaches to the “Yellow Line,” but he has also authorized Israeli soldiers to target and to kill anyone who crosses it.

This is ominous. It suggests that, even if the “ceasefire” holds, the Israeli government plans to maintain indefinitely its current military occupation of more than 50% of the territory of the Gaza Strip, territory which includes the great majority of Gaza’s agricultural land and which has already been effectively ethnically cleansed of Palestinians due to the bombing that has destroyed infrastructure across 90% of Gaza.

Even if the Palestinians wish to return home, they will have no shelter, no jobs, no schools, hospitals or religious buildings, and no sources of income apart from charity—and Israel knows this. They will also be completely dependent on Israel allowing entry of food and medicine, which, as noted above, is now continuing to be restricted in spite of the ceasefire agreement.

There are reports that some Israeli ministers have said: “As soon as we get the hostages back, we will resume the slaughter.” Nearly all observers note that Israel does not have a good record on fulfilling ceasefire or other agreements, and that its withdrawal from occupied territory is often delayed through various contrivances.

It has been well demonstrated by Israel’s continuing presence in Areas “B” and “C” of the West Bank, from which, in accordance with the Oslo Accords, it should have started its gradual withdrawal a quarter-century ago.

For Israel, “indefinite” tends to mean “permanent” whenever and wherever Israeli land-grabs are concerned, assisted by American leaders like Mr. Trump who have approved annexation of the Syrian Golan Heights and East Jerusalem while also giving Israel a free hand to do what it pleases on the West Bank.

In fact, formal annexations by Israel are neither necessary nor desirable, since they could provoke Western states which have used the “temporary” excuse to justify their de facto support for Israel’s illegal occupation of Palestine rather than to finally take constructive actions to end it.

Israel understands that the optimal situation is effectively permanent occupation and control of all the territory of the former state of Palestine without a formal declaration of annexation, and that is undoubtedly what will continue as the peace process slowly proceeds, if it does at all. The “Trump peace plan” would, unsurprisingly, permit this status quo to continue.

So both sides have grievances that can be exploited to end the ceasefire if the respective political leaders decide to do so.

The foreign states, most notably the United States, Germany and Egypt, involved in the ceasefire process are apparently willing to exert themselves if necessary to make everything work. Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty described how it should develop. He said that a 15-member Palestinian committee has been selected to become the administrators of Gaza after the peace plan enters into Phase Two.

The committee will not, however, include Hamas members, in response to Israeli and U.S. concerns, but it will draw on both diaspora Palestinians as well as Palestinians from the West Bank, to include representatives from the Palestinian Authority, now based in Ramallah. It will be responsible for the day-to-day operation of the Gaza Strip but will not have any political or security responsibilities. The proposed names of the committee members have reportedly been accepted by both Israel and Hamas.

Beyond that, there will be a multinational security force that will be responsible for the adherence of both Israel and Gaza to the peace plan. This may or may not include the 200 U.S. soldiers who have already been sent to Israel.

The Board of Peace, chaired by Trump and run by Sir Tony Blair and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner, will supervise reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. Both Arab countries, most prominently Egypt, and European donors will be involved in the process. There will soon be a conference in Cairo to discuss the mechanics of restoring habitability to the badly damaged infrastructure. Reports in the British media suggest that UK-based construction companies have already begun to work on bids for the rebuilding.

The red lines are clear, however, and suggest that the peace process possibly has more elements in it that will lead to it coming apart rather than succeeding.

First of all, Hamas will not disarm until Israel executes a complete withdrawal, which Israel has no intention of doing based on its “Yellow Line” tactics.

Second, Israel has made it very clear that it will not accept anything that suggests development of a Palestinian state run by Palestinians, leading potentially to the two state solution, which much of the world supports, but not Israel and its patron the United States.

The Palestinians, for their part, insist that whatever evolves will be self-governing by Palestinians. And there is also considerable ambiguity in whether Gazans will be allowed to stay in Gaza at all, given plans to relocate them and the likelihood that rebuilding the ruins of Gaza will be in the hands of foreign countries and companies in what will be a massive undertaking, leaving no room for Palestinians hanging around demanding food and trying to rebuild their homes.

Paul Craig Roberts has warned that Trump’s (or rather Netanyahu’s) “fake peace plan” is little more than a disguise for Israel to take over Palestine under cover of a governing board.

So will the Gaza Peace Plan beyond that succeed? One should hope that it does, but, as Israel is ultimately the deal breaker and has not hesitated to be the disruptor in the past, it would require Trump to step down hard on Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, threatening to cut off aid and political support.

It is possible that a wildly egocentric Trump will rally around a project that is in a real sense bearing his name, but history tells us that is very unlikely and that Israel and its powerful U.S. lobby will prevail, using whatever leverage they have to keep Trump in line. That is the unfortunate reality.

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