Hey everyone, and welcome back to the channel.Right now, the market mood should be ecstatic! We’ve got a 90% probability of a Fed interest rate cut next Wednesday—the very thing everyone has been waiting for. But if you’re like me, you’ve got a knot in your stomach. Something feels off.The truth is, the market doesn't care as much about the act of the cut as it cares about what Jerome Powell says next. Think back to the last meeting: his "far from certain" comment on future cuts caused a 5% market drop that we still haven't fully recovered from.I don’t make predictions here—this is a caution statement, pure and simple. I'd love to be wrong, and if I am, that’s the best-case scenario.But when you look closer, the Fed is further from its price stability goal (that’s the stable prices part of their dual mandate) than they are with maximum employment. Inflation is still running hot, consumers are in real pain, and a further cut could pour fuel on the fire, leading to even higher prices down the road.We’ll break down:Why the Fed's focus on prices over jobs could mean trouble for the market.The three types of consumers and the real pain being felt right now.What happens if Powell signals a "pause"—and why the Russell 2000 and the hot Biotech stocks could fall.Why too many positives—from a low VIX to endless "Santa Rally" talk—actually make me want to run (at least jog) for the hills.The S&P has already doubled its expected annual return since just April. It’s time to remember the first rule of investing: preserve your money.I'll share the timeless story of Baron Rothschild and reveal why respected tech investor Dan Niles is sitting on cash—a red flag for the AI trade.My own trading portfolio (not investing portfolio) is overweight cash. If I’m wrong, I’ll be happy to buy the dip. But right now, my choice is caution.Stick around, because next Wednesday could be the market’s reckoning. Let’s get started.