After one of the deepest recessions in history, the U.S. economy still has roughly 10 million fewer jobs than before the COVID-19 pandemic began. While some say the economy is improving faster than expected and has seen significant growth in recent months, it could be some time before the U.S. returns to pre-pandemic highs. What will drive the economy back into recovery? And can it happen before 2022? Sean Snaith, Director of UCF's Institute for Economic Forecasting, explains his timeline and predictions for complete economic recovery.

 

Featured Guests

Sean Snaith - Director, UCF Institute for Economic Forecasting

Episode Highlights

0:45 - Sean Snaith introduction

1:31 - Just how bad did it get in 2020?

4:54 - How Sean Snaith describes the economy today

7:01 - The U.S. government's response

9:46 - Will new stimulus packages be effective?

11:41 - How did Florida fare compared to the U.S. economy?

16:06 - The future of the U.S. and Florida economies

18:18 - Economic recommendations for the Biden Administration

22:48 - New taxes?

25:21 - Are the "Roaring '20s" going to be a thing?

26:54 - Paul Jarley's final thoughts

 

Episode Transcription

Paul Jarley:                         So between now and election, what do you think, the economy going to have a recession? Yes? No? Why?

Glenn Hubbard:               On balance, I don't think we're at the cusp of a recession.

John Solow:                       I absolutely agree with Glenn's take on what things are doing now.

Paul Jarley:                         No, I think the short answer is no, there's not going to be a recession before the 2020 election or in 2020 at all, I think.

Sami Alpanda:                   I agree with almost everything that has been said so far.

Paul Jarley:                         Turns out they were all wrong. This year was all about separating hype from fundamental change. I'm Paul Jarley, Dean of the College of Business here at UCF. I've got lots of questions. To get answers, I'm talking to people with interesting insights into the future of business. Have you ever wondered, is this really a thing? Onto our show.

Paul Jarley:                         2020 threw everyone a curve ball. That recession, well, it turned out to be a thing. Is 2021 the return of prosperity? Will the economy go on a run like it did in the 1920s? I sat down with our resident expert, Dr. Sean Snaith, he's the director of our Institute for Economic Forecasting. Listen in. Well, thanks for joining me today, Sean.

Sean Snaith:                       Pleasure.

Paul Jarley:                         We've got a lot to cover. I'm going to ask you to be the ghost of economy past, present, and future, if you don't mind. And let's start out with the past. Back in 2019, I hosted a panel of people, including Glenn Hubbard at that time and asked them whether a recession in 2020 was possible and all of them to a person and you as well said, no chance, right?

Paul Jarley:                         The economy was really humming. When I asked them what they were concerned about, frankly, they had trouble coming up with anything and then March of 2020 happened. So how bad did it get in 2020?

Sean Snaith:                       Well, at least I'm in good company in being wrong, I suppose. And I don't know if I'm the ghost or I'm haunted by my past forecast, but I don't think, two things, that I don't think anyone saw coming. One is a pandemic, global pandemic out of China. That's one thing. This is ...

Paul Jarley:                         That's the exogenous shock.

Sean Snaith:                       That's the exogenous part. And so this stuff happens. Now, could that in and of itself have triggered a recession? Maybe.

Paul Jarley:                         Maybe.

Sean Snaith:                       Maybe. But it was the endogenous part or the policy response to it that really put us into the historic downturn.