After one of the deepest recessions in history, the U.S. economy still has roughly 10 million fewer jobs than before the COVID-19 pandemic began. While some say the economy is improving faster than expected and has seen significant growth in recent months, it could be some time before the U.S. returns to pre-pandemic highs. What will drive the economy back into recovery? And can it happen before 2022? Sean Snaith, Director of UCF's Institute for Economic Forecasting, explains his timeline and predictions for complete economic recovery.

Featured Guests
Sean Snaith - Director, UCF Institute for Economic Forecasting

Episode Highlights
0:45 - Sean Snaith introduction
1:31 - Just how bad did it get in 2020?
4:54 - How Sean Snaith describes the economy today
7:01 - The U.S. government's response
9:46 - Will new stimulus packages be effective?
11:41 - How did Florida fare compared to the U.S. economy?
16:06 - The future of the U.S. and Florida economies
18:18 - Economic recommendations for the Biden Administration
22:48 - New taxes?
25:21 - Are the "Roaring '20s" going to be a thing?
26:54 - Paul Jarley's final thoughts

Will the Economy Fully Recover in 2021?

Business can be faddish. Paul Jarley, dean of the UCF College of Business, is on a mission to separate fads from fundamental change that will impact students. Join us as we chat with experts, enthusiasts and interesting people to talk business and pose the question… Is This Really a Thing?

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Are the Excel Championships just another bit of content for ESPN? Could it keep the Pac 12 alive? More importantly, is it an eSport and can we gamble on it? Listen in!



 
Featured Guests

 	Andrew Grigolyunovich - Founder and CEO of the Financial Modeling World Cup
 	David Clayton Brown, Ph.D. - Associate Professor of Finance at the Eller College of Business at the University of Arizona
 	"Mr. Excel" Bill Jelen - Excel Expert, Consultant, Author & Play-by-Play Announcer
 	Adrien Bouchet, Ph.D. - Richard & Helen DeVos Foundation Endowed Chair; Eminent Scholar of the DeVos Sport Business Management Program at UCF
 	Sean Dennis, Ph.D. - Assistant Professor, Kenneth G. Dixon School of Accounting at UCF

 
Episode Transcription
Announcer from the movie "Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story": Live from Las Vegas, It's the Las Vegas International Dodge Ball Open here on ESPN 8: The Ocho, bringing you the finest in seldom scene sports from around the globe since 1999. If it's almost a sport, we've got it here.

Paul Jarley: But I have to admit I did not see this coming.

This show is all about separating hype from fundamental change. I'm Paul Jarley, Dean of the College of Business here at UCF. I've got lots of questions. To get answers, I'm talking to people with interesting insights into the future of business. Have you ever wondered, is this really a thing? Onto our show.

Paul Jarley: While, it most certainly isn't "Dodgeball," and we aren't breaking down Average Joe's, we are talking about the Excel Championships that just aired on ESPN, and will be heading to Las Vegas in December. Are the Excel Championships even close to an eSport? I really need help understanding why Excel is on ESPN. To form an opinion on this, I've assembled the following panel of experts.

Andrew Grigolyunovich is the Founder and CEO of the Financial Modeling World Cup and joins us all the way from Latvia. David Clayton Brown is an Associate Professor of Finance at the Eller College of Business at the University of Arizona. Bill Jelen goes by the moniker Mr. Excel. He has authored several books on Excel and is the competition's play-by-play guy. Adrian Bouchet is the DeVos Endowed Chair of Sports Management and Chair of the Sports Business Management Program here in the College of Business. Finally, Sean Dennis is an Associate Professor in our Dixon School of Accounting. Listen in.

Paul Jarley: So one of the very first podcasts I did was on eSports and the premise of it was whether eSports was going to be a thing or not. I came down on the side that I thought it was going to be a big thing that I thought it wouldn't just be a big thing in the professional ranks, that it would be a big thing in the college ranks as well. And one of the reasons I thought that that would be true is it would be a way for universities to promote a group of geeky students with a unique offering, but I have to admit, I did not see this coming. When I saw the ESPN promotion on The Ocho for this event, I thought, wow, this is one I just wouldn't have imagined. I'm going to start with David and Andrew here. Where did the idea for these kinds of competitions come from? Andrew?

Andrew Grigolyunovich: It all started, I think that was back in 2012, the first competition of a similar kind that was called ModelOff that was created by two guys in Australia and they were doing that on an annual basis and that was devoted to financial modeling. That was called the Financial Modeling World Championship. They had a name brand named ModelOff. I was one of the players, David was one of the players there. We were good players, we made it to the finals a couple of times and in 2016 we were among the top 16 players in London. So the difference between what you saw on ESPN, first of all, that was annual,

Are the Excel Championships Really an eSport?

Could Artificial Intelligence make Hollywood a ghost town?

Reality TV, strikes and cyborgs, OH MY! Hollywood may be heading toward AI-generated content, and we all may already be living in a cyborg state … so was this episode AI-generated? This is part two of a two-part episode. Be sure to go back and listen to Part 1: Will the Hollywood Strike be an Extended Thing?

 
Featured Guests

 	David Luna, Ph.D. - UCF College of Business
 	Robin Cowie - Phygital Experience Creator & Feature Filmmaker
 	Cassandra "Cassi" Willard, J.D. - Instructor, Department of Management, UCF College of Business & Program Director, Blackstone LaunchPad at UCF
 	Ray Eddy, Ph.D - Lecturer, Integrated Business, UCF College of Business

 
Episode Transcription
Actor Bryan Cranston speaking at a SAG-AFTRA strike rally in Times Square in New York City on July 25, 2023: Uh, we've got a message for Mr. Iger. I know, sir, that you look through things through a different lens. We don't expect you to understand who we are, but we ask you to hear us, and beyond that, to listen to us when we tell you we will not be having our jobs taken away and given to robots.

Paul Jarley: The real issue, Bryan, is whether the AI listens and understands us.

This show is all about separating hype from fundamental change. I'm Paul Jarley, Dean of the College of Business here at UCF. I've got lots of questions. To get answers, I'm talking to people with interesting insights into the future of business. Have you ever wondered, is this really a thing? Onto our show.

In our last episode, we explored the current writers and actor's strikes and how the parties might come to some agreement to get everyone back to work and spare us a lot of new reality TV. A key part of that analysis involved the limitations of AI today. It can't produce a final product without humans. That, of course, is today. AI technology is changing rapidly and its impact on the industry is likely to grow over time. In today's episode, we look at the long-term implications of AI in Hollywood and ask, could AI depopulate the industry in 10 years? In other words, could it eliminate or substantially reduce the number of people working in Hollywood, especially the writers and actors. To shed light on these topics, I returned to the discussion I had with my group of UCF experts. To just remind everyone, Cassandra Willard is an instructor and program director in our Center for Entrepreneurship and a practicing attorney with extensive experience in entertainment law.

Ray Eddy is a lecturer in our Integrated Business department with an interest in understanding the customer experience. Ray is not just an academic, he has worked as a stunt man, started his own production company and written, directed and starred in several performances. David Luna is a professor in our Marketing department. He is currently working on several projects, studying human machine interactions in the context of chatbots, intelligent assistance, and AI. And last but not least is Robin Cowie. Rob is a graduate of our Motion Picture Technology program at UCF. He's a little hard to summarize, having worked in a variety of positions in the industry from EA Sports, to Nickelodeon, to the Golf Channel, and the Dr. Phillips Center for Performing Arts. Today, he is the President and CTO at Promising People, a company that produces training and placement services for people who have been incarcerated. But, you probably know Rob best from his work as co-producer on "The Blair Witch Project." Listen in.

David, if AI is going to depopulate Hollywood, it's going to have to produce movies that are more profitable than the ones being created today. What do you see as the main issues here?

David Luna: There are different kinds of costs involved in making a movie, right?

Part 2: Will AI Depopulate Hollywood?

More reality TV? AI-generated “South Park” episodes? Is this where Hollywood is heading thanks to the latest writer and actor strike? We find out from UCF experts how, and why, the strike will be resolved and how AI will play into plans moving forward. This is part one of a two-part episode.

 

On July 14, 2023, members of the Hollywood actors' union, SAG-AFTRA, stood with screenwriters, forming a picket line outside Amazon Studios in Los Angeles, California. This marked the commencement of an actors' strike. SAG-AFTRA joined forces with the Writers Guild of America workers, who had been engaged in a determined strike against the Hollywood studios for three months. This joint walkout, a rare occurrence not witnessed since 1960, underscores the magnitude of the situation. The collaboration between SAG-AFTRA and WGA intensifies the impact of the strike, with the potential to bring Hollywood productions to a complete standstill.

 
Featured Guests

 	David Luna, Ph.D. - UCF College of Business
 	Robin Cowie - Phygital Experience Creator & Feature Filmmaker
 	Cassandra "Cassi" Willard, J.D. - Instructor, Department of Management, UCF College of Business & Program Director, Blackstone LaunchPad at UCF
 	Ray Eddy, Ph.D - Lecturer, Integrated Business, UCF College of Business

 
Episode Transcription
SAG-AFTRA President Fran Drescher in a press conference July 13, 2023: The entire business model has been changed by streaming, digital, AI. This is a moment of history that is a moment of truth. If we don't stand tall right now, we are all going to be in trouble. We are all going to be in jeopardy of being replaced by machines. You cannot change the business model as much as it has changed and not expect the contract to change too. We are labor and we stand tall and we demand respect.

Paul Jarley: Oh my, this is going to get really complicated. In the meantime, prepare for a new round of reality TV. This show is all about separating hype from fundamental change. I'm Paul Jarley, Dean of the College of Business here at UCF. I've got lots of questions, to get answers, I'm talking to people with interesting insights into the future of business. Have you ever wondered, is this really a thing? On to our show. The writers and actors haven't been out on strike together since 1960. Then, it was partly about how television was impacting the film industry and getting residual income for writers and actors from movies that were then being shown on TV. The business model was changing and labor wanted its share. Screen Actors Guild President Fran Drescher's comments at the start of this podcast note that technology is changing the business model again with streaming services, digital media and AI among the main drivers. This is a very complicated situation, so complicated, that we couldn't fit it into our usual 25-to-30 minute podcast. So we decided to split it into two parts. Today we will tackle the basics of the strike and how and when we see it being resolved. The second part, we'll do a much deeper dive into AI and Hollywood and how that is likely to change the industry going forward, especially for writers and actors. Essentially, we want to answer the question, will anybody be left in Hollywood in 10 years? 
 
As always, to shed light on these topics, I've assembled a group of UCF experts. Cassandra Willard is an instructor and Program Director at our Blackstone Launchpad and a practicing attorney with extensive experience in entertainment law. Ray Eddy is a lecturer in our Integrated Business program with an interest in understanding consumer experiences. Ray is not just an academic, he has worked as a stuntman, started his own production company and written, directed and starred in several performances. If you've been to Walt Disney World in the last several years,

Part 1: Will the Hollywood Strike be an Extended Thing?

Did the pandemic spark a flurry of innovation or was everyone too busy bingeing Tiger King and Outerbanks and Zooming to endless happy hours to launch new businesses and products? Dean Paul Jarley turns to UCF's entrepreneurial in-house experts along with an alum whose company helps startups grow and scale to find out the answer.
 



 


Featured Guests


Caroline Castille - CEO, Clickable Impact
Cameron Ford, Ph.D. - Associate Professor, Management; Founding Director, Center for Entrepreneurial Leadership and StarterLab
Director, UCF Blackstone LaunchPad
Carol Ann Dykes Logue - Director, Programs & Operations Innovation Districts & Incubation Program, UCF Business Incubation Program
Michael Pape, Ph.D. - Dr. Phillips Entrepreneur in Residence; Professor of Practice, Management

 

Episode Transcription

Caroline Castille: I think we're going to see a lot of more entrepreneurial people out there who are more hunt-to-kill type of people instead of grazers, just worker bees in the company, which I love. That's going to make more people, not only in control of their lives, but it's going to make the economy even stronger.

Paul Jarley:  Did I just get called a grazer? When did that become a thing?

Paul Jarley:  This show is all about separating hype from fundamental change. I'm Paul Jarley, Dean of the College of Business here at UCF. I've got lots of questions. To get answers, I'm talking to people with interesting insights into the future of business. Have you ever wondered, "Is this really a thing?" Onto our show.

Paul Jarley:  My sense is, in talking to a lot of faculty and editors, that submissions to journals in terms of research were down during the pandemic. And I think part of it was because people didn't have access to subjects like they might normally have if they were doing certain kinds of research. Some of it, I think, was just the general angst people had. And then maybe third, people didn't get together in groups, maybe, as much, and to the extent that sometimes ideas come out of group conversations. And then it got me thinking as to whether or not there's sort of a similar phenomenon with respect to innovation and entrepreneurship.

Paul Jarley:   To answer that fuzzy question, I assembled today's panel of experts. Caroline Castille is a UCF grad, a finalist in the 2014 version of the Joust, and a serial entrepreneur. Cameron Ford is the founding Director of the Center for Entrepreneurial Leadership at UCF, and an associate professor in our Department of Management. Carol Ann Dykes Logue is Director of Programs and Operations at the UCF Innovations District and Incubation Program. And Dr. Michael Pape is the Dr. Phillips entrepreneur and residence in the Department of Management, and serves as the director of the UpStart Student Venture Accelerator at UCF. Mike, let's start with you. Did innovation go up or down as a result of the pandemic?

Michael Pape: One way that we measure innovation, which is a new way to do things, at least with a solid metric, is patent submissions. So I was interested in this, been reading about this, and if you look at patent submissions, they kept going up and up and up, the USPTO, the US Patent and Trademark Office.

Paul Jarley:  
Yeah.

Michael Pape: They publish all these stats every year. If you look through, they started the plateau in 2016, interestingly enough-

Paul Jarley:  Before the pandemic, yeah.

Michael Pape: Yeah, and they've stayed pretty flat, but that's sort of a gross aggregate, obviously. And that's just the U.S. But I did see that in other countries, they had actually an increase in the number of patent applications, depending, again, what's your point of reference as you try to in...

Was Innovation in the Pandemic Really a Thing?

Inflation hasn’t been much of an issue since Jimmy Carter was in office. But—like Mom Jeans and mullets—it’s totally back. This time, though, it feels different. We’re paying more than ever at the pump and in the grocery stores, so what’s to blame? Is it government spending? Supply chain shortages? The war in Ukraine? We’ve got questions, so we turned to UCF economist Sean Snaith for answers.

Additional Resources
Want to learn more? Check out Snaith’s latest U.S. Economic Report from UCF’s Institute for Economic Forecasting.

Featured Guests

 	Sean Snaith, Ph.D. - Director, Institute for Economic Forecasting

 
Episode Transcription
Paul Jarley:  Inflation hasn't really been an issue since the Carter years. That Saturday Night Live skit was Dan Aykroyd impersonating Jimmy Carter. Inflation is definitely not the friend of people who are on fixed incomes. Today's inflation, though, feels a little different. Some people think it's not a surprise. We printed a bunch of money during the pandemic, and we're suffering the consequences to that. Spending was high, particularly government spending.

Some people blame it on supply chain shortages. Some people blame it on the war in Ukraine. Some people believe it's a government conspiracy. To sort through all of those things, when Sean gets here, we will have a conversation with him that will help us shed some light on where inflation really is today and where we think it's going in the future.

Well, here he is. I'm assuming you're in big demand these days.

Sean Snaith: Yeah. I've spoken on at least two occasions about inflation over the past year and a half.

Paul Jarley: So you raising your prices, given all this demand?

Sean Snaith: No, competition's too fierce.

Paul Jarley: Really? Yeah.

Sean Snaith: Yeah. Economists are a dime a dozen.

Paul Jarley: Well, that's probably true, but you're the prettiest one I have, buddy.

Sean Snaith: Aw. You're like my magic mirror. What fairy tale was that? Who's the fairest economist in the land?

Paul Jarley: Oh, that's not even close. I mean, it's a low bar if you've met most economists, right?

Sean Snaith: I build a career on low expectations.

Paul Jarley: There's no GQ for economics. I've never seen it.

Sean Snaith: No. We did do a GDP GQ...

Paul Jarley: There you go. Very nice.

Sean Snaith: But yeah, the model was not an attractive man.

Paul Jarley: I would imagine not. So how unattractive is it right now?

Sean Snaith: Well, we're making the call when our release goes out that we are in or very close to a recession right now. And speaking to different groups and to the media over the past year, all of this can be traced back to the policy response to COVID-19 in 2020.

Paul Jarley: We'll come to that in a couple minutes.

A few weeks ago I was driving home and when I drive home from the gym, I tend to put on sports talk radio. It's my time to kind of catch up with. And the guy was railing against the inflation number in the sense that he didn't believe it, that he thought the reported one was too low. And he was quoting the doubling in gas prices over a period. And yeah. So talk a little bit about how that inflation number is actually put together and what it really means.

Sean Snaith: Many of the variables in macroeconomics have measurement issues. Financial markets, interest rates...

Paul Jarley: Pretty simple stuff right?

Sean Snaith: To the second on the spot. When you start talking about GDP, employment, unemployment inflation, now you're dealing with something that's not as directly observable.

Will the Economy Fully Recover in 2021?

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