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Will the PM Call the Election in 2021? Who'd Win?
Timing is everything. In this episode we discuss what could happen if a general election were held in 2021. Who would win? What issues would weigh heavily on voters? Which parties are prepared? The conventional wisdom is not to call an election when the economy is in turmoil, and unemployment is high, assuming it can be avoided.
Yet the Cabinet has instructed the Antigua and Barbuda Electoral Commission (ABEC) to get whatever material it needs to hold an election. The Information Minister would only say that the Prime Minister Gaston Browne could call one at any time, so ABEC ought to be ready. And he's right. Browne could call an election tomorrow morning. The question is, what would be the advantage in doing so? Unemployment is rife. The business community has been hurt badly by Covid-19. And an election is not constitutionally due until around March of 2023.
Maybe the government is confident that there'll be a recovery this year - a strong rebound in the tourism sector perhaps. Maybe it'll boost its spending power simultaneously with an international loan, and start paving roads like crazy. Or maybe it thinks this recession will last well into the latter half of next year, in which case some might argue it's best to have the election soon, before it loses more support, if it think it's lost any already.
Alternatively, a snap election this year could be simply aimed at denying the opposition the opportunity to run a lengthy campaign. A snap election called tomorrow would do just that - prevent a lengthy litigation of the government's performance in the court of public opinion for too long a period before the vote.
Still, telling ABEC to prepare for elections might be a calculated ploy to generate activity in opposition parties, which might fizzle out. But is there any advantage to doing something like that? In any event, aren't the battles won at the constituency level? Doesn't it come down to who shows their face more, who's better at patronage and treating (both of which are corrupt), and who is best at mobilizing the average constituent? If so, then joblessness and the handling of Covid-19 won't matter much to most voters.
Then there are other questions. Which parties are ready for an election? Will leadership matter? Will the opposition parties mount a united front? And what about Asot Michael and Michael Browne? Will they be running for the Antigua and Barbuda Labour Party? We ran out of time before we could get to that last question, but we discussed a lot in this episode.
The host is Kieron Murdoch. The guests are:
This programme first aired on NewsCo Observer Radio 91.1 FM on June 13th, 2021. Get the latest news from Antigua and Barbuda at the Antigua Observer online.
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By The Big Issues Production TeamTiming is everything. In this episode we discuss what could happen if a general election were held in 2021. Who would win? What issues would weigh heavily on voters? Which parties are prepared? The conventional wisdom is not to call an election when the economy is in turmoil, and unemployment is high, assuming it can be avoided.
Yet the Cabinet has instructed the Antigua and Barbuda Electoral Commission (ABEC) to get whatever material it needs to hold an election. The Information Minister would only say that the Prime Minister Gaston Browne could call one at any time, so ABEC ought to be ready. And he's right. Browne could call an election tomorrow morning. The question is, what would be the advantage in doing so? Unemployment is rife. The business community has been hurt badly by Covid-19. And an election is not constitutionally due until around March of 2023.
Maybe the government is confident that there'll be a recovery this year - a strong rebound in the tourism sector perhaps. Maybe it'll boost its spending power simultaneously with an international loan, and start paving roads like crazy. Or maybe it thinks this recession will last well into the latter half of next year, in which case some might argue it's best to have the election soon, before it loses more support, if it think it's lost any already.
Alternatively, a snap election this year could be simply aimed at denying the opposition the opportunity to run a lengthy campaign. A snap election called tomorrow would do just that - prevent a lengthy litigation of the government's performance in the court of public opinion for too long a period before the vote.
Still, telling ABEC to prepare for elections might be a calculated ploy to generate activity in opposition parties, which might fizzle out. But is there any advantage to doing something like that? In any event, aren't the battles won at the constituency level? Doesn't it come down to who shows their face more, who's better at patronage and treating (both of which are corrupt), and who is best at mobilizing the average constituent? If so, then joblessness and the handling of Covid-19 won't matter much to most voters.
Then there are other questions. Which parties are ready for an election? Will leadership matter? Will the opposition parties mount a united front? And what about Asot Michael and Michael Browne? Will they be running for the Antigua and Barbuda Labour Party? We ran out of time before we could get to that last question, but we discussed a lot in this episode.
The host is Kieron Murdoch. The guests are:
This programme first aired on NewsCo Observer Radio 91.1 FM on June 13th, 2021. Get the latest news from Antigua and Barbuda at the Antigua Observer online.