186 - Will the Russia & Ukraine conflict send prices soaring?

Saudi Arabia expands share in China oil market, Russia lags

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/saudi-arabia-expands-share-china-oil-market-russia-lags-2022-01-20/

Oil could jump to $150 a barrel this quarter on the back of an 'adverse supply shock' from Russia-Ukraine tensions, JPMorgan says

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-russia-ukraine-tensions-150-per-barrel-supply-2022-1

- would need to get 2.3 million bpd of oil off the market to see this jump in Q1

- Is this possible if US and allies impose sanctions?

- Will Russia invade Ukraine? Key is

Oil slumps as Russia-Ukraine tensions, Middle East conflict unsettle traders

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-edges-lower-as-traders-monitor-russia-ukraine-tensions-middle-east-11643031454

Russian crude exports to US highlight risks to Ukraine talks for Biden

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/012122-russian-crude-exports-to-us-highlight-risks-to-ukraine-talks-for-biden

- US imported average of over 700,000 bpd from Russia between Jan and Oct 2021

How a Russian-Ukraine conflict might hit global markets

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/how-russian-ukraine-conflict-might-hit-global-markets-2022-01-21/

US putting together 'global' strategy to increase gas production if Russia invades Ukraine, officials say

https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/23/politics/us-gas-production-strategy-russia-ukraine-invasion/index.html

- This isn't very much considering what the US has done in the past

Germany’s Reliance on Russian Gas Limits Europe’s Options in Ukraine Crisis

https://www.wsj.com/articles/germanys-reliance-on-russian-gas-limits-europes-options-in-ukraine-crisis-11642939203

- Europeans are dependent on Russian gas

- Germany has different opinion of "incursion" and "response" than others

- Want to do business with Russia

European oil refineries exposed as fears of Russia invading Ukraine grow

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/oil/012122-european-oil-refineries-exposed-as-fears-of-russia-invading-ukraine-grow

Don’t believe Putin’s propaganda. Sanctions are hurting Russia.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/dont-believe-putins-propaganda-sanctions-are-hurting-russia/

- If the US bans Russia from the SWIFT system would Russia move to using bitcoin or other crypto-currencies?

- Will it be over in Q1? - Ryan and Ellen think yes!

This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit energyweek.substack.com