This week, Karin talks to the political forecaster Rachel Bitecofer, of the Wason Center for Public Policy in Virginia. Dr Bitecofer has developed a predictive model for US politics that was exceptionally accurate in the 2018 midterms, and she is going to tell us whether she thinks the Democratic candidate, whoever they might be, is favored to win in 2020. We'll talk about the rise of negative partisanship in America, which electoral strategy Democrats should be pursuing, and what her model says makes for a stronger or weaker candidate for the Party in this cycle.  We also play the Gut Check Game, testing our reactions to some of the main media narratives around the race.