Frontline Conversations

Will West Bengal see its most communal election yet?

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In this episode of Frontline Conversations, Maidul Islam, Professor at the Centre for Studies in Social Sciences, Kolkata, examines the growing communalisation of politics in West Bengal and its implications for the 2026 Assembly election. He explains how the rise of the BJP, the spread of RSS networks, and the emergence of localised Muslim political formations are reshaping Bengal’s political landscape.

Islam argues that while West Bengal historically remained insulated from large-scale communal violence, the post-2014 period marked a decisive shift. He looks into the rise of low-scale communal violence and warns that the pattern of communal riots and the rise of BJP are very synchronised. Tracing electoral data from 2014 to 2024, he explains how Bengal has transitioned into a bipolar contest between the BJP and the Trinamool Congress, marginalising traditional players like the Congress and the Left.
From the role of welfare politics and identity mobilisation to the strategic use of voter enumeration processes such as SIR, Islam lays out how political narratives are being reshaped ahead of the elections. He also offers a detailed electoral forecast, suggesting that the Trinamool Congress could secure between 185 and 226 seats, depending on campaign dynamics and voter consolidation.
Highlights:

  • The rise of communal politics in West Bengal after 2014
  • “Low-scale communal violence” and its electoral implications
  • Why BJP’s growth and communal tensions appear interconnected
  • The decline of Congress and the Left in a bipolar political system
  • The role of Muslim-majority districts in shaping electoral outcomes
  • How SIR and voter dynamics are influencing political consolidation
  • Why Trinamool has emerged as the dominant political force
  • Seat-by-seat election prediction and possible scenarios
    • Students of political science, public policy, and electoral studies
    • UPSC aspirants and competitive exam candidates
    • Researchers tracking communal politics and party systems in India
    • Journalists covering elections, governance, and political trends
    • Citizens interested in understanding West Bengal’s evolving politics

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      Credits:
      Host: Suhrid Sankar Chattopadhyay
      Camera: Jayanta Shaw
      Editing: Razal Pareed
      Producers: Kavya Pradeep M and Mridula Vijayarangakumar
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