Uncomfortable Collisions with Reality

Willows & Wind Vanes: Fixing Economics Forecasting


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In the wake of my column proposing that central banks should hold open forecasting competitions - and particularly suggesting it for Bernanke's review of the Bank of England's forecasting, Gene Tunny and I discuss the issues in more detail and some of the reactions to the column appearing in the comments section.

Kenneth Grahame and Wind in the Willows comes up. And why not?

I think you’ll find it pretty interesting.

If you'd like to watch the video, it's here.

00:00 Trailer

00:53 Proposal for Economic Forecasting

06:19 Comments & Criticisms

10:05 Modeling & Judgements

13:47 Feedback on Gene's Article

16:12 Museum Visit and Kenneth Graham

17:13 Closing Remarks


If you'd like to watch the video version, find it here.


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Uncomfortable Collisions with RealityBy Nicholas Gruen