The Polycrisis

01 | Demand Destruction | US oil is not winning the Iran war


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In this first bonus episode, we discuss why the Middle East war is accelerating the destruction of demand for fossil fuels, and why the US won’t become the new provider of "geopolitically secure” oil and gas.

We also argue about whether the data is sufficient – *yet* – to prove our point that this is already happening. 

Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate Mackenzie, and Tim Sahay from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author The Polycrisis newsletter, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. 

  • Produced by Sarah Allely
  • Original music by Russell Stapleton
  • Mixed by Bethany Stewart

Contact us at: [email protected]

Links:

America’s bid for energy supremacy is being forged in war - Big Financial Times story setting out the “US is geopolitically secure energy provider” argument. With excellent data viz. 

Iran War Pushes Asia to Think Twice Before Doubling Down on LNG - Bloomberg  

One of the most persuasive anecdotal demonstrations that assumptions about LNG demand now have to be completely revised. “Bloomberg News spoke to more than two dozen executives, traders and analysts across Asia, who painted a picture of a region that had been thought of as the future of LNG, but is now rapidly losing faith in the super-chilled fuel.”

US is making Europe pay dearly for its half-hearted electrification - Cornel Ban, Geoeconomic newsletter. Highlights how Europe’s slow energy transition has left it vulnerable to US energy predation. Echoes some of the arguments in the Permanent Suez report that Tim co-authored in early 2024. 


US ambassador to Europe threatens to remove “privileged” access to LNG - FT, March 24, 2026



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