Is the UAE's departure from OPEC mostly about Gulf geopolitics and kings defending their regimes, or the outlook for oil demand? There is, as ever, a lot of context required to answer this question.

Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate Mackenzie, and Tim Sahay from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author The Polycrisis newsletter, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. 

• Produced by Sarah Allely
• Original music by Russell Stapleton
• Mixed by Bethany Stewart

Contact us at: [email protected]

Links:

Mohammed bin Zayed's Dark Vision of the Middle East -  NYT, September 2020 

How Midnight OPEC Dealmaking Won Gulf Unity at Africa’s Expense - Bloomberg, June 2023  

In this first bonus episode, we discuss why the Middle East war is accelerating the destruction of demand for fossil fuels, and why the US won’t become the new provider of "geopolitically secure” oil and gas.

We also argue about whether the data is sufficient – *yet* – to prove our point that this is already happening. 

Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate Mackenzie, and Tim Sahay from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author The Polycrisis newsletter, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. 

• Produced by Sarah Allely
• Original music by Russell Stapleton
• Mixed by Bethany Stewart

Contact us at: [email protected]

Links:

America’s bid for energy supremacy is being forged in war - Big Financial Times story setting out the “US is geopolitically secure energy provider” argument. With excellent data viz. 

Iran War Pushes Asia to Think Twice Before Doubling Down on LNG - Bloomberg  

One of the most persuasive anecdotal demonstrations that assumptions about LNG demand now have to be completely revised. “Bloomberg News spoke to more than two dozen executives, traders and analysts across Asia, who painted a picture of a region that had been thought of as the future of LNG, but is now rapidly losing faith in the super-chilled fuel.”

US is making Europe pay dearly for its half-hearted electrification - Cornel Ban, Geoeconomic newsletter. Highlights how Europe’s slow energy transition has left it vulnerable to US energy predation. Echoes some of the arguments in the Permanent Suez report that Tim co-authored in early 2024. 

US ambassador to Europe threatens to remove “privileged” access to LNG - FT, March 24, 2026

Can the US stop the electric wave? In 2022 the US introduced its first ever set of serious climate policies. That took an unprecedented collaboration of racial justice, environment and labour interests. But oil and gas interests fought back quickly and effectively. Now the 2nd Trump administration is using sanctions, trade wars, and military power in a bid to slow the energy transition. 

Guests: 

Rhiana Gunn-Wright - Advisor to NY Mayor Zohran Mamdani, former climate policy program director at the Roosevelt Institute

Ted Fertik  - Vice President, manufacturing and industrial policy, Blue-Green Alliance; formerly of the Working Families Party.

Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate Mackenzie, and Tim Sahay from the net zero industrial policy lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author The Polycrisis newsletter, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. 

• Produced by Sarah Allely
• Music composed by Russell Stapleton
• Mixed by Bethany Stewart

Contact us at: [email protected]

China didn’t set out to fix climate change. Its production of clean energy and electrification tech is changing the world, but this particular green revolution is a byproduct of China’s economic strategy and its quest for energy independence. The global financial crisis, the US shale boom, and the US attitude towards China have all contributed to China’s new dominance of clean energy manufacturing.

Guests: 

Jessica Chen Weiss  - Professor of China Studies and the faculty director of the Institute for America, China, and the Future of Global Affairs at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC

Jake Werner - Director of the East Asia Program, Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft

Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate Mackenzie, and Tim Sahay from the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author The Polycrisis newsletter, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. 

• Produced by Sarah Allely
• Original music by Russell Stapleton
• Mixed by Bethany Stewart

Contact us at: [email protected]

Links:
Jessica Chen Weiss in 2024; "The Case Against the China Consensus", Foreign Affairs
CSIS note on the implications of China's rare earths export controls for US military and semiconductor manufacturing 

How is the Middle East war going to change the energy strategies of many countries? 

Global powers have long relied upon the threat of cutting off fossil energy flows – or the revenues from selling them – to discipline and coerce other countries. The US has done this for decades with oil. Five of the seven countries attacked by the US under the second Trump administration are rich in oil. But the emergence of cheap clean energy tech and electrification complicates the picture. What can history tell us about the motivations of the US around geopolitical dominance and energy? 

Even among the chaos of the current US administration, a desire to perpetuate a globally traded fossil fuel system persists. Oil-producing nations that depend on selling the stuff overseas face existential threats from the energy transition; but the US administration wants to keep oil use high so that it can exert global power. 

Guests: 

Helen Thompson - Professor of political economy, Cambridge University; former co-host of the London Review of Books’ “Talking Politics” podcast

Alex Turnbull - Managing director, Sagax Capital; energy researcher, commodities and energy trader

Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate MacKenzie, and Tim Sahay from the net zero industrial policy lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author The Polycrisis newsletter, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. 

• Produced by Sarah Allely
• Original music by Russell Stapleton
• Mixed by Bethany Stewart

Contact us at: [email protected]

What does the US dollar have to do with energy access in Africa? 

Mark Blyth explains why countries are so keen to cut back their US dollar dependence; and how that’s connected to the way they get energy. Also, why Germany is afraid of Chinese EVs. Then we talk to Adjekai Adjei about how these constraints actually play out in the African continent.

Guests: 

Mark Blyth - professor of international economics at Brown University. 

Naa Adjekai Adjei - Nigeria-based expert in Chinese energy projects in Africa from SE4All, and a fellow at the China Global South Project.   

Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate MacKenzie, and Tim Sahay from the net zero industrial policy lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author The Polycrisis newsletter, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. 

• Produced by Sarah Allely
• Original music by Russell Stapleton
• Mixed by Bethany Stewart

Contact us at: [email protected]

The second wave of the energy transition is already happening: Since 2022, developing countries have been rapidly ramping up their use of solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles. And the subsequent energy crisis of 2026 makes cleaner, electrified energy even more compelling. This episode explores how a surge of affordable, high quality clean tech is rewiring global energy; and why China is making all of this happen.

Guests: 

• Haneea Isaad (Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, Pakistan) 
• Kyle Chan (Fellow at the John L. Thornton Center for China Studies, Brookings Institution; author of the newsletter, “High Capacity”)

Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate MacKenzie, and Tim Sahay from the net zero industrial policy lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author The Polycrisis newsletter, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. 

• Produced by Sarah Allely
• Original music by Russell Stapleton
• Mixed by Bethany Stewart

Contact us at: [email protected]

This first season of The Polycrisis podcast tells the story of the clash between new and old energy regimes.

Just like other energy transitions before it, this is a geopolitical story - not a climate one. Developing countries are leapfrogging their wealthy counterparts by rapidly deploying cheap solar panels, batteries and electric vehicles imported from China. This gives them a low-cost supply that’s immune to wars and other disruptions. 

This energy transition is deeply connected to shifts taking place in the world, especially since the US-Israel attacks on Iran: the reconfiguration of world power, US-China rivalry and the deterioration of US hegemony. 

Hosted by energy and climate finance expert Kate MacKenzie, and Tim Sahay from the net zero industrial policy lab at Johns Hopkins University. They co-author The Polycrisis newsletter, which explores connections between energy, geopolitics, climate change, finance and industry. 

• Produced by Sarah Allely
• Original music by Russell Stapleton
• Mixed by Bethany Stewart

Contact us at: [email protected]

The Polycrisis Podcast original theme music. Composed by Russell Stapleton