Shawn Collins of THC Group and Erik Gundersen of ERG Strategies lay out their predictions for the cannabis industry in 2026 using a simple framework: the bets they think will shape the year, and the tripwires that could force policy to move fast and sideways.

The conversation breaks down five core dynamics, including evolving federal posture, the shift from building state programs to optimizing them, consolidation pressure in a capital-starved market, the coming tax fights in state capitols, and why Congress may revisit the hemp definition again with real consequences for intoxicating products and enforcement. Then they dig into the tripwires, the headline-driven and courtroom-driven events that regulators cannot schedule and operators cannot ignore, and how those shocks tend to reshape the operating environment overnight.

It’s an episode about governance, market structure, and staying ahead of regulatory reality in a year that will reward preparation.

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🔎 Topics: 2026 cannabis forecast, cannabis policy, federal cannabis posture, state program optimization, cannabis consolidation, cannabis taxes, hemp definition, intoxicating hemp, regulatory risk, compliance strategy, enforcement dynamics, The Hybrid podcast