In this episode, Scott Slayton, Partner and Chief Strategist at Capital Creek Partners, breaks down three key market themes for the week.

Scott opens with the 14-point memorandum of understanding to end the US-Iran war, signed Wednesday. He walks through the points that matter most for markets, including the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days, $300 billion in reconstruction funds, the lifting of sanctions, and roughly $100 to $120 billion in unfrozen Iranian assets. While he views the deal as reasonable but tilted toward Iranian interests, and the 60-day timeline as unrealistic, he explains why the restored free flow of petroleum, fertilizers, and gas through Hormuz is bullish for equities and bonds but bearish for oil, gold, and commodities, where Capital Creek is overweight and rethinking its thesis.

Next, Scott analyzes the June Fed meeting and the hawkish debut of the new Warsh Fed. He highlights a terse statement focused squarely on price stability with no mention of maximum employment, nine dots signaling a hike as the next move, and a core PCE forecast for 2026 that jumped from 2.7 to 3.3 percent at the midpoint of the year. Scott reflects on how clearly and repeatedly Warsh committed to delivering price stability, ties it back to Capital Creek's "punch bowl" thesis, and argues that a hard money central banker who is also an adroit politician is a powerful combination and a longer-term positive for markets and consumers.

Finally, Scott turns to May retail sales and the resilient consumer. Focusing on the control group for its higher signal-to-noise ratio, he notes the upside surprise, the fifth consecutive monthly increase, and an upward revision to April. He explains why consumers keep spending despite the war, high energy prices, tariffs, AI-related job fears, and generationally low confidence, and what the strength implies for second quarter GDP, second quarter earnings, and the inflation risks now favoring the Fed's hawks.