Polling data and turnout models are far more complex than most people realize, with numerous factors influencing their accuracy and interpretation. From the challenges of non-response bias to the intricacies of early voting analysis, understanding election forecasts requires a nuanced approach beyond simple percentages. 

In this episode of Crosstabs, Farrah speaks with Dr. Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida. Dr. McDonald, known for producing the country's voter turnout rates, shares his expertise on the complexities of polling methodologies, the impact of demographic shifts on voting patterns, and the critical need for standardized election data collection across the United States. The conversation covers a wide range of topics, including the limitations of voter files, the challenges of predicting turnout, and the potential benefits of a national identity card for solving voter registration issues. 

Voter Turnout Gap in Surveys

Performance of American Elections Survey

Election Lab at UF

Current Population Survey Voter and Registration Supplement

Cooperative Election Survey

US Election Project (Michael McDonald’s Substack newsletter)

Our Guest 

Dr. Michael McDonald is a professor of political science at the University of Florida and a renowned expert on American elections. He is best known for producing the United States Elections Project, which provides the country's most authoritative voter turnout statistics. 

Dr. McDonald's work on early voting patterns and election administration has been widely cited in academic research and media coverage. His expertise extends to redistricting, voting rights, and the analysis of precinct-level election data. With a career spanning decades, Dr. McDonald has become a go-to source for understanding the complexities of the American electoral system and voter behavior. 

Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.

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