By Farrah Bostic
No soft political analysis from ex-campaign staffers. No predictions. No unskewing the polls.
Cross Tabs is a show to help you understand how political polls are designed and conducted s
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The podcast currently has 20 episodes available.
This week we're taking a break from national polling to talk about polling done by a group trying hard to influence the outcome of various races this cycle: crypto bros. The influence and agenda of the crypto industry is lurking behind a lot of the candidates and their policy positions. Crypto PACs are raising and spending over $100 million on 2024 races. It's in crypto's interests to portray itself as representing a large voting bloc who will vote based on a candidate's position on crypto — via industry-funded polls making claims about American's crypto behavior and beliefs. They seem to be cutting through: the RNC adopted an entire plank of crypto-industry pet positions into their party platform.
Who better to talk through these polls, PACs, and policy positions than cryptoresearcher Molly White. She joins me to break down the way the industry is trying to persuade through polls, and why we need more journalists and politicos to bring a much higher level of scrutiny to industry polling.
Molly White is a researcher, software engineer, and prominent critic of cryptocurrencies and blockchain-based projects. She is best known for her website Web3 is Going Just Great, which documents only some of the many disasters in the cryptocurrency and web3 industries, and for her Follow the Crypto election spending tracker.
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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Forecasting election outcomes involves far more than simple polling averages, often incorporating complex models that account for candidate strengths, voter demographics, and historical trends. While these models strive for accuracy, they must grapple with the inherent unpredictability of human behavior and the challenge of quantifying intangible factors like voter enthusiasm and candidate quality.
In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah Bostic interviews Lakshya Jain, a co-founder of the elections blog Split Ticket. Jain offers insights into the intricacies of election modeling, discussing the limitations of polls, the importance of cross-tabs, and the value of embracing uncertainty in forecasts. He also touches on the recent shift from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee, exploring how this change has reshaped polling data and electoral predictions.
Split Ticket: https://split-ticket.org
Split Ticket's Presidential Polling Aggregator
We Dug Into the 2024 Polling Crosstabs. What We Found Was Stunning. (Lakshya Jain and Harrison Lavelle in Politico)
How #electiontwitter took over the political prediction game (Financial Times)
How The Times/Siena Poll Is Conducted (The New York Times)
Pollster Ratings (FiveThirtyEight)
Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
Lakshya Jain is a machine learning engineer who analyzes political data in his free time. He handles modeling, data pieces, and presidential ratings for Split Ticket. Jain graduated from UC Berkeley with a BA in 2019 and an MS in 2020, majoring in computer science. He currently works in the tech industry. His political analysis and writing have appeared in prominent publications such as The New York Times, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and The Bulwark.
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
America's political landscape is deeply divided into two distinct nations, shaped by historical, economic, and cultural forces that extend far beyond simple demographics. This divide manifests in vastly different lived experiences, policy preferences, and institutional structures between red and blue states, with profound implications for the future of American democracy and governance.
In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah Bostic interviews Mike Podhorzer, a political strategist and data analyst, to discuss Podhorzer's excellent analysis of The Two Americas, examining how factors like regional factionalism, economic models, religious institutions, and labor unions have contributed to the current political polarization. The conversation covers the limitations of traditional polling methods, the role of exogenous events in shaping political alignments, and the potential for collective action to address systemic issues in American politics.
Resources
"The Limits of Education Essentialism" by Mike Podhorzer
"The Two Nations of America" by Mike Podhorzer
"As Go Unions, So Goes America" by Mike Podhorzer
Know Your Enemy podcast episode The Bomb Power
Cook Political Report podcast episode What Polls Miss - And What We Should Focus On Instead
Our Guest
Mike Podhorzer is a renowned political strategist and data analyst with decades of experience in labor politics and progressive causes. He served as the longtime political director of the AFL-CIO, where he pioneered innovative approaches to voter mobilization and data-driven campaigning.
Podhorzer is widely recognized for his insightful analysis of American political trends, particularly his work on the "Two Americas" concept, which examines the deep structural divides in U.S. politics. His writing and research have contributed significantly to understanding the complexities of modern American political landscapes beyond traditional polling metrics.
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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In this post-nominating conventions episode, I reflect on lessons learned as we approach the last 60 days before the election. Some key themes include:
Tune in to gain a nuanced understanding of polling, forecasting, and political marketing as we head towards the election.
There are 69 days to the 2024 election.
"Mad Poll Disease Redux: Harris-Walz Edition" Weekend Reading by Mike Podhorzer
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Polling data and turnout models are far more complex than most people realize, with numerous factors influencing their accuracy and interpretation. From the challenges of non-response bias to the intricacies of early voting analysis, understanding election forecasts requires a nuanced approach beyond simple percentages.
In this episode of Crosstabs, Farrah speaks with Dr. Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida. Dr. McDonald, known for producing the country's voter turnout rates, shares his expertise on the complexities of polling methodologies, the impact of demographic shifts on voting patterns, and the critical need for standardized election data collection across the United States. The conversation covers a wide range of topics, including the limitations of voter files, the challenges of predicting turnout, and the potential benefits of a national identity card for solving voter registration issues.
Resources
Voter Turnout Gap in Surveys
Performance of American Elections Survey
Election Lab at UF
Current Population Survey Voter and Registration Supplement
Cooperative Election Survey
US Election Project (Michael McDonald’s Substack newsletter)
Our Guest
Dr. Michael McDonald is a professor of political science at the University of Florida and a renowned expert on American elections. He is best known for producing the United States Elections Project, which provides the country's most authoritative voter turnout statistics.
Dr. McDonald's work on early voting patterns and election administration has been widely cited in academic research and media coverage. His expertise extends to redistricting, voting rights, and the analysis of precinct-level election data. With a career spanning decades, Dr. McDonald has become a go-to source for understanding the complexities of the American electoral system and voter behavior.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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Public opinion polling has historically underrepresented Black Americans and other minority groups, leading to skewed perceptions of national sentiment. Emotional responses to political issues and candidates play a crucial role in shaping voter behavior, yet are often overlooked in traditional survey methods.
Dr. Camille Burge-Hicks, Associate Professor of Political Science at Villanova University, discusses the evolution of political polling and its impact on Black communities. She shares insights on the importance of qualitative research in understanding voter motivations, the need to update outdated survey measures, and the potential for emotional factors to influence voters. The conversation also touches on the challenges of accurately representing diverse populations in polls and the responsibility of both pollsters and the public in interpreting survey results.
Resources
Polling and the Public by Herbert Asher
Historic Firsts by Evelyn Simien
The Philadelphia Negro by W.E.B. Du Bois and Isabel Eaton
National Survey of Black Americans
National Black Election Study
National Black Politics Study
Collaborative Multi-Racial Post-Election Study (CMPS)
Data Black Public Opinion Polls
Our Guest
Dr. Camille Burge-Hicks is an Associate Professor and Chair of the Department of Political Science at Villanova University. Her research focuses on political psychology, race and ethnicity in American politics, and the role of emotions in shaping political behavior. Dr. Burge-Hicks is particularly interested in exploring how group identities and emotional experiences influence public opinion and political decision-making among Black Americans and other minority groups. Her forthcoming book, Fired Up, Ready to Go: Pride, Shame, and Anger in Black Politics, examines the intersection of emotions and racial identity in political engagement.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Federal statistical agencies play a crucial role in providing objective, high-quality data that inform policy decisions, resource allocation, and business strategies across the United States. However, these agencies face significant challenges, including budget constraints, declining response rates, and the need to modernize data collection methods while maintaining data integrity and privacy.
In this episode, Farrah interviews Connie Citro, a senior scholar at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. Citro discusses the findings from a recent report, "The Nation's Data at Risk," which assesses the health of federal statistical agencies. She explains the historical development of these agencies, their importance in providing reliable data for both public and private sectors, and the potential consequences of underfunding and political interference. The conversation covers topics such as data sharing between agencies, the impact of non-response on survey quality, and the need for greater public awareness of federal statistics' value.
Connie Citro is a distinguished expert in federal statistics with over four decades of experience in the field. She served for many years as the director of the Committee on National Statistics at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, where she now continues as a senior scholar. Throughout her career, Citro has been involved in numerous studies on critical statistical issues, including decennial census methodologies, poverty measurement, and the American Community Survey. Her extensive knowledge and experience make her a leading voice in discussions about the health and future of the U.S. federal statistical system.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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Immersive gaming exercises offer a powerful tool for understanding complex geopolitical scenarios and developing strategic empathy. They provide insights that traditional analysis often misses. By inhabiting different perspectives and grappling with real-world constraints, participants gain a deeper appreciation for the multifaceted nature of global challenges and decision-making processes.
In this episode of Crosstabs, Farrah talks to Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Amal Ali of Valens Games about their innovative approach, going beyond wargaming and scenario planning to more immersive strategic experiences. They discuss how their exercises help leaders break free from cognitive biases, explore alternative futures, and gain insight into complex political and social dynamics. We talk about the potential applications of these techniques to the current political situation, offering listeners a fresh perspective on analyzing and preparing for uncertain futures.
Influence by Robert Cialdini
Ezra Klein's episode on an open Democratic convention:
Sarah Longwell's The Focus Group at The Bulwark
Valens Games war games
Our Guests
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is the founder and CEO of Valens Games. He is a practitioner, scholar, and entrepreneur whose career has focused on analyzing complex 21st-century challenges and forging laudable solutions to them. Daveed is also the author or volume editor of over 30 books and monographs, including Enemies Near and Far (Columbia University Press, 2022), which examines ISIS and al-Qaeda’s processes of engaging in organizational learning. He is on the faculty at Carnegie Mellon University and Duke University.
Amal Ali
Amal Ali serves as the Senior Vice President of Strategy at Valens Games, where she specializes in engaging with government and public sector clients. Her career spans military service, intelligence work, and strategic consulting. Ali is a military veteran with experience in the U.S. intelligence community, including work at the agency level and supporting Army and joint special operations. Ali's background in intelligence analysis, coupled with her cross-cultural understanding, informs her approach to game design and facilitation at Valens Games. In her role, she focuses on developing immersive exercises that help decision-makers gain new perspectives on complex geopolitical challenges.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience in research and strategy for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions. Connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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Political polling, especially among minority communities hasn't always had a great track record of representation, and of deep understanding of racial dynamics and ways different communities interact with ideas of civic participation. This conversation explores how allegiance to one's country and sense of belonging shape political participation, challenging more simplistic ideas about what kinds of participation matter, and why people do it.
Dr. Ray Block, a professor at Penn State who also studies "truth decay" at the RAND Corporation, brings his expertise in social identity and political involvement to the discussion. He shares insights on the evolving landscape of polling, the importance of community-focused research, and the role of protest in American democracy. Together we explore the nuances of political engagement, offering a fresh perspective on how we understand and measure civic participation.
Resources
Dr Block's Allegiance and Belonging Study
Google’s work on “Understanding America’s Interested Bystander”
African American Research Collaborative: https://africanamericanresearch.us/
Our Guest
Ray Block Jr., Ph.D., is senior research advisor for the African American Research Collaborative. He has led their research design on a range of polls, including research involving elections, health policy, and African Americans’ policy goals. Block is also the Brown-McCourtney Endowed Career Professor at the McCourtney Institute for Democracy and associate professor of Political Science and African American Studies at Pennsylvania State University. Block received his B.A. in philosophy and political science from Howard University and his Ph.D. in political science from The Ohio State University.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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The shadowy world of online survey fraud threatens to undermine market research. Sophisticated scammers exploit programmatic sample systems lacking fraud controls to skew results. As the industry grapples with this growing problem, researchers must adopt new technologies and partnerships to ensure data quality and maintain trust.
In this episode of Crosstabs, host Farrah Bostic continues her conversation with Rich Ratcliff, Chief Trust Officer at Opinion Route. They discuss the challenges of detecting and preventing survey fraud in the digital age, the importance of choosing the right sample partners, and the potential impact of AI – both positively and negatively – on research. Ratcliff emphasizes the need for researchers to embrace new technologies and partnerships to combat fraud while maintaining the human element in market research. Researchers will want to hear Ratcliff’s valuable advice on how to navigate the evolving landscape of online surveys and data collection to ensure our careful designs aren’t undermined by fraudulent respondents.
Resources
ResTech Landscape Map: https://www.restecher.com/landscape/
"The Sample Bubble in the Form of a Conference Recap" https://www.opinionroute.com/blog/samplecon-2024-highlights-2-2/
"Securing the Survey Link": https://www.opinionroute.com/dataquality/securing-the-survey-link-2/
Our Guest
Rich Ratcliff is the Chief Trust Officer at OpinionRoute, a company that delivers accurate data by utilizing expertise in online survey sampling and proprietary technology solutions to simplify research processes, which enables clients to scale and researchers to stay ahead in a dynamic and competitive market.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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Cross Tabs website & newsletter: https://www.crosstabspodcast.com
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