Cross Tabs End Notes

The hardest thing to do in polling it seems is to accurately guess who the voters will be. Pollsters get better and better at weighting samples to more accurately reflect observable characteristics of voters, which is why the forecasts keep getting close to the center of the bullseye. But there are still these harder to observe characteristics that it's almost impossible to model... unless you can figure out what they are.

So here's an idea - what if, instead of just throwing up our hands, we found a way to poll people who don't want to be polled?

Kabir Khanna of CBS News did just that - and he came on to talk to me all about what they did, and what they learned.

About the Guest

Kabir Khanna, Ph.D., is Director, Election Analytics & Technical Systems at CBS News. He produces stories on elections, polling, and politics, making sure they are based on best practices and innovations in quantitative social science. He ensures surveys and statistical estimates are representative and accurate, and breaks down results on air. On election nights, he projects races for the network and manages the Data Desk, generating insights into the electorate in real time, as well as estimates of turnout, how ballots are cast, and key voter groups.

Stuff We Talked About

"The voters Mamdani added to the Democratic coalition in New York: CBS News analysis"

"1 year in, Americans call for more inflation focus from Trump, CBS News poll finds"

Polling at a Crossroads, by Michael Bailey

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We're living in a time ruled by old men.

And honestly, it's not going great. The richest, most powerful men on the planet - billionaires and political leaders alike - are well over 70, on average.

Meanwhile, young people are suffering from the high cost of living, unaffordable housing, high consumer debt, and political unrest.

Based on recent polling, they're not happy.

The right has made a long term investment in their political goals. The left has not.

That's where Amanda Litman and her organization, Run for Something come in - helping to get people under 40 elected to local office. They've been incredibly successful, and are now focused on battleground states and other places in which Democrats have historically underinvested, as well as encouraging renters to run for office.

Amanda Litman is the co-founder and president of Run for Something, which recruits and supports young, diverse progressives running for down-ballot office. Since launching in 2017, RFS has elected more than 1500 leaders across nearly all 50 states, mostly women and people of color.

She’s also president of RFS Civics, a 501c3 that works to end the gerontocracy.

She is also the author of Run for Something: A Real-Talk Guide to Fixing the System Yourself, published by Atria in 2017. Her new book, When We’re in Charge: The Next Generation’s Guide to Leadership, came out in May 2025 from Crooked Media Reads.

"Dems Struggle to Make Their Moderates Go Viral" by Lauren Egan in The Bulwark

"The Voters Who Have Taken a U-Turn on Trump" by Nate Cohn of The New York Times

1. Cross tabs from their study with Siena College

"Run for Something Launches Battle Up Strategy"

"Run for Something Mobilizes Renters to Run for Office"

"How Aftyn Behn Shattered Expectations in a Deep Red District"

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There's an unreality about this political moment. It makes it hard to hold people's attention, to create any kind of focus on any issue or event or action. People don't know what's real, what's certain, what's not just for dumb show.

And that is both by design, and the output, of totalitarian thinking. Aesthetics are ever-present in politics - the color of a suit, or whether someone even wears one can fill a news cycle and constitute a scandal. Fascist and authoritarian ideologies are aesthetic all the way down. They are both authentically held by people who can not tolerate discomfort with themselves, other people, the way things are, or the way things seem to be headed... and they are a convenient cover for people who have real material goals and know that spectacle will dazzle people long enough for them to get away with just about anything.

And this has me obsessing about one of my favorite books, The Unbearable Lightness of Being, and working through it in a conversation with Cy Canterel, a feral scholar, TikToker, and writer who thinks a lot about systems, aesthetics, sense-making, and how it all works.

In the aftermath of Charlie Kirk's killing, I reached out to Cy to talk about kitsch - something she has written about, and about her concept of a Hater's Discourse, and how this might explain the moment we're currently in.

And then I revisited some of that conversation after the incursion into Venezuela and the murder of Renee Nicole Good. It felt like the right time to talk about this, given that it seems like we're all struggling with how to reckon with real things that seem fake.

Some links for your enjoyment:

Cy's piece on Kitsch: https://open.substack.com/pub/cybelecanterel/p/lost-in-the-kingdom-of-kitsch

Cy's piece on the Hater's Discourse: https://cybelecanterel.substack.com/p/a-haters-discourse

Cy's video on Blackpill Aesthetics: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wcw02sEslog

Ryan Broderick's piece on Garbage Day, "The Rise of the Troll State": https://www.garbageday.email/p/the-rise-of-the-troll-state

Don Moynihan's piece on Can We Still Govern?, "Life Under a Clicktocracy": https://donmoynihan.substack.com/p/life-under-a-clicktatorship

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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

📨 You can also email me directly at [email protected]

Conor Kilgore is a producer of The Focus Group Podcast, and a qualitative researcher at Longwell Partners - and he joined host Farrah Bostic to discuss the value of listening to real people talk about their real beliefs and experiences in their own words. And he brought clips! We also discussed his journey into this work via work on political campaigns, and got as deep into the weeds as possible on how they do what they do.

Subscribe to The Bulwark here: https://www.thebulwark.com

Subscribe to The Focus Group Podcast here: https://www.thebulwark.com/s/thefocusgroup

Find out more about Longwell Partners here: https://www.longwellpartners.com

And find out more about Conor here: https://www.linkedin.com/in/conorkilgore/

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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

📨 You can also email me directly at [email protected]

Keeping up our monthly Mood Swings discussion of polling and political strategy news that enrages, confuses, and inspires, host Farrah Bostic and guest Lauren Goldstein discuss the Harvard CAPS/Harris poll, which explores American voters' opinions on a wide range of current events. We discussed the question types, answer options, and interpretation of the fairly extensive data - and beg researchers to remember how important it is to provide respondents with 'not sure' or 'don't care' or 'never heard of it' options to gauge true public sentiment.

We also talked about how brands deal with trends or issues that might be salient - but also controversial.

And this month's What's Good focused on the power of satire, humor, and fighting content with content.

Our Guest 

Lauren Goldstein is the lead advocacy pollster for Change Research and holds a PhD from UCLA with ten years of experience as a public opinion researcher and social scientist. She has done extensive research and polling on issues related to racial justice (and injustice), criminal legal reform and police divestment, immigration, and reproductive rights. She is the author of the Mind the Gap newsletter.

What we were talking about was...

• Harvard CAPS/Harris Poll December 2025 - https://harvardharrispoll.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/HHP_Dec2025_KeyFindings.pdf
• Jordan Klepper Fingers the Pulse: Give the Man a Prize - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JdvSonnYw-E
• "The hidden axis: the left-right spectrum has a non-ideology problem" by G. Elliott Morris, Strength in Numbers - https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/not-just-left-vs-right-most-voters

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Farrah is joined by Kevin Collins, co-founder and Chief Research Officer at Survey 160, about the applicability of AI in survey methodologies, the perils of synthetic sample, and the importance of respondent preferences when it comes to survey mode and the respondent experience. We discussed Kevin's findings in some early explorations of available tools about the impact on data quality, the potential role of AI in coding open-ended survey responses, and where there might be opportunity for AI tools to support but not replace human expertise.

We also explored an issue we both have some opinions about - the concept of 'popularism' in political campaigning, how it intersects with different styles of persuasion, and how it influences other decision-making in how campaigns roll out messaging.

Our Guest

Kevin Collins is co-founder and Chief Research Office at Survey 160, a polling firm working to make SMS-based survey collection a staple mode of research to help fuel progressive campaigns. Survey 160 works with high-profile political campaigns at both the national and state level, as well as advocacy organizations and other groups working for a brighter future. You can connect with him on Bluesky @kwcollins.bsky.social or through their website at https://www.survey160.com/

Read their work on AI in survey methods here: The Limits of Simulation in Public Opinion Research

Other Sources Mentioned

• Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples, by Argyle et al
• Predicting Results of Social Science Experiments Using Large Language Models, by Hewitt et al
• Synthetic Replacements for Human Survey Data? The Perils of Large Language Models, by Bisbee et al
• Do AIs know what the most important issue is? Using language models to code open-text social survey responses at scale, by Mellon et al
• Context Length Alone Hurts LLM Performance Despite Perfect Retrieval, by Du et al
• Does AI Actually Boost Developer Productivity? (100k Devs Study) - Yegor Denisov-Blanch, Stanford [video]
• Does accommodation work? Mainstream party strategies and the success of radical right parties, by Krause et al
• The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion, by John R. Zaller [book]
• Consuming Cross-Cutting Media Causes Learning and Moderates Attitudes: A Field Experiment with Fox News Viewers, by David E. Broockman and Joshua L. Kalla

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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

In this episode of Cross Tabs, host Farrah Bostic discusses the intricacies of the current political climate and the emotional toll with guest Lauren Goldstein, author of the 'Mind the Gap' newsletter. The conversation touches on the overwhelming events of the last month, including ICE raids, National Guard actions, and the shutdown. Lauren shares her own struggles with the civic mood and together they explore the concept of thermostatic public opinion and the pitfalls of modern political strategy, including the need for a more authentic and proactive approach. But all is not lost! We discuss the necessity for Democrats to focus on how to not merely win the next election, but to build a better future grounded in authenticity, intentionality, and a shared vision.

Our Guest 

Lauren Goldstein is the lead advocacy pollster for Change Research and holds a PhD from UCLA with ten years of experience as a public opinion researcher and social scientist. She has done extensive research and polling on issues related to racial justice (and injustice), criminal legal reform and police divestment, immigration, and reproductive rights. She is the author of the Mind the Gap newsletter.

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 Today on the show, we are diving deep into the fast changing world of political campaigns with someone who's had a front row seat to its transformation. Dr. Michael D. Cohen is the CEO of Cohen Research Group. A leading firm at the intersection of politics, public affairs, and corporate strategy.

He's the creator of the Congress in your Pocket suite of AI powered mobile apps, and teaches digital political strategy at Johns Hopkins and NYU. He's also the author of Modern Political Campaigns now in its second edition with a. Timely new chapter on artificial intelligence. In this conversation, Dr.

Cohen walks me through the evolution of campaigns from loosely organized operations to today's high speed tech enabled data-driven, consultant driven machines. We talk about how strategy has shifted from relying. Solely on polling to navigating a complex web of information sources. We also explore the rising importance of crisis communication, the fine line between authenticity and brand control, and the double-edged sword of AI in campaign operations.

It's a candid, clear-eyed look at the machinery behind modern elections and what it means for democracy, strategy, and the future of campaigning.

MICHAEL D. COHEN, PH.D. is CEO of Cohen Research Group a leading political, public affairs, and corporate research firm. He publishes the pioneering Congress in Your Pocket suite of AI-driven mobile apps and teaches courses at Johns Hopkins University and New York University on digital political strategy and political campaigning. He is the author of Modern Political Campaigns: How Professionalism, Technology, and Speed Have Revolutionized Elections, a second edition featuring a new chapter on artificial intelligence published in early 2025 with Bloomsbury. After running political campaigns in college, Dr. Cohen served in leadership positions at The Gallup Organization, Microsoft, USA Facts, and Purple Strategies, as well as two political polling firms. He is a three-time graduate of the University of Florida with degrees in mass communications and political science, and he a member of its leadership Hall of Fame.

The Power and the Money by Tevi Troy

"How Strategist Brain Took Over the Democratic Party" by Ben Mathis-Lilley in Slate

Campaigns & Elections Magazine

The "Harry & Louise" Ads via C-SPAN on YouTube

Jake Rush's appearance on The Colbert Report via the Internet Archive

"Why CMOs Never Last" by Kimberly A. Whitler and Neil A. Morgan in Harvard Business Review

Congress In Your Pocket

Modern Political Campaigns by Michael D. Cohen

Michael D. Cohen's personal website linking to his projects and CV

Cohen Research Group

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Farrah Bostic talks with G. Elliott Morris, the founder of Strength in Numbers (and author of a book by the same name) to discuss the evolution of data journalism and the critical role of public opinion polling in a healthy democracy. Morris, formerly of The Economist and FiveThirtyEight, shares his vision for a new era of "pollster-driven poll journalism" and how he aims to fill a crucial gap in the media landscape.

We also discussed Strength in Numbers' July Poll, which looked at everything from Trump's approval numbers, to Democrats' weakness on the generic ballot, to the unpopularity of specific provisions of the reconciliation bill, to how people feel about third parties (and Musk's third party specifically).

A core feature of these polls is that Morris takes suggestions from his community for questions to put on the polls - which means that the public gets a say in what we put on public opinion surveys for once.

You can check out the latest July poll from Strength in Numbers (and subscribe) here: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-dems-lead-house-generic

You can also find his book, Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them here: https://wwnorton.com/books/strength-in-numbers

Our Guest

Elliott Morris is a data-driven journalist and author living in Washington, DC. He is the author of STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them, a book about public opinion polling and democracy which was published in 2022 by W. W. Norton.

Elliott was most recently the Editorial Director of Data Analytics at ABC News, where he developed polling aggregation and election-forecasting models and managed the research and data visualization teams for ABC’s data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight/538. He was a regular guest on the network’s broadcast and streaming news programs providing political analysis on notable events and upcoming elections.

He is the founder of Strength in Numbers, a data-driven news website that provides regular analysis of national politics and elections in the United States.

Your Host

Farrah Bostic is the founder of The Difference Engine, a strategic research and innovation consultancy. Drawing on her extensive background in research and strategy, she examines how power dynamics and data patterns shape both democratic institutions and market environments, bringing a sharp analytical perspective to the intersection of politics, data, and business. 

Her incisive questioning style and ability to connect political movements with business implications makes Cross Tabs essential listening for political analysts, business leaders, and engaged citizens seeking to understand the forces shaping our political and economic landscapes. 

Learn more about Farrah’s experience helping B2B and B2C companies across various industries turn audience insights into effective strategies at thedifferenceengine.co, and be sure to connect with her on LinkedIn if you’d like to discuss how The Difference Engine can help your business grow with authentic customer insights.

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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

On July 1, I sat down to talk to Scott Keeter and Hannah Hartig from Pew Research about their 2024 Validated Voter Survey.

We talked about the challenges of analyzing elections using panel data, and about the shifts in makeup of the electorate between 2020 and 2024, and what that means for how campaigns think about balancing turnout and persuasion strategies. More than anything, they tell us, mobilization is a result of campaigning. You gotta play to win.

How Changes in Turnout and Vote Choice Powered Trump’s Victory in 2024

Behind Trump’s 2024 Victory, a More Racially and Ethnically Diverse Voter Coalition

Commercial Voter Files and the Study of U.S. Politics

My interview with L2 about their approach to assembling the voter file: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cross-tabs/id1725891109?i=1000651891510

My interview with Michael McDonald discussing turnout models and his Election Project: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cross-tabs/id1725891109?i=1000666055702

The Red Shift Maps from NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/06/us/politics/presidential-election-2024-red-shift.html

Hank Green's response video to the red shift maps: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kC9u7NZbGlQ)

David Shor on Ezra Klein talking about changing demographics in the MAGA coalition: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/democrats-need-to-face-why-trump-won/id1548604447?i=1000699618199

Our Guests:

Hannah Hartig is a senior researcher at Pew Research Center, where she primarily studies U.S. political attitudes and voting behavior. She has authored analyses on topics including domestic opinions of the U.S., voter turnout in 2020 and views of abortion. Prior to joining the Center, she was director of research at the Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies at the University of Pennsylvania. She regularly discusses the Center’s political research with the news media and has served as an election night exit poll analyst for NBC News since 2014. Hartig received her bachelor’s in foreign affairs from the University of Virginia and master’s degree in quantitative politics from the University of Pennsylvania.

Scott Keeter is a senior survey advisor at Pew Research Center. In this role, he provides methodological guidance to all of Pew Research Center’s research areas. An expert on American public opinion and political behavior, he is co-author of four books, including What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters (Yale University Press), A New Engagement? Political Participation, Civic Life, and the Changing American Citizen (Oxford University Press), The Diminishing Divide: Religion’s Changing Role in American Politics (Brookings Institution Press), ** and Uninformed Choice: The Failure of the New Presidential Nominating System (Praeger). He has also published numerous articles on survey methodology. Prior to joining Pew Research Center, he taught at George Mason University, Rutgers University and Virginia Commonwealth University, where he also directed a survey research center. Keeter is a graduate of Davidson College and received his doctorate in political science from the University of North Carolina. He is a past president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR). In 2016, Keeter won AAPOR’s highest honor, the AAPOR Award for Lifetime Achievement, for “outstanding contributions to the field of public opinion research.”

You can follow their work, and even donate to support Pew’s Research, at pewresearch.org

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