Farrah is joined by Kevin Collins, co-founder and Chief Research Officer at Survey 160, about the applicability of AI in survey methodologies, the perils of synthetic sample, and the importance of respondent preferences when it comes to survey mode and the respondent experience. We discussed Kevin's findings in some early explorations of available tools about the impact on data quality, the potential role of AI in coding open-ended survey responses, and where there might be opportunity for AI tools to support but not replace human expertise.

We also explored an issue we both have some opinions about - the concept of 'popularism' in political campaigning, how it intersects with different styles of persuasion, and how it influences other decision-making in how campaigns roll out messaging.

Our Guest

Kevin Collins is co-founder and Chief Research Office at Survey 160, a polling firm working to make SMS-based survey collection a staple mode of research to help fuel progressive campaigns. Survey 160 works with high-profile political campaigns at both the national and state level, as well as advocacy organizations and other groups working for a brighter future. You can connect with him on Bluesky @kwcollins.bsky.social or through their website at https://www.survey160.com/

Read their work on AI in survey methods here: The Limits of Simulation in Public Opinion Research

Other Sources Mentioned

• Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples, by Argyle et al
• Predicting Results of Social Science Experiments Using Large Language Models, by Hewitt et al
• Synthetic Replacements for Human Survey Data? The Perils of Large Language Models, by Bisbee et al
• Do AIs know what the most important issue is? Using language models to code open-text social survey responses at scale, by Mellon et al
• Context Length Alone Hurts LLM Performance Despite Perfect Retrieval, by Du et al
• Does AI Actually Boost Developer Productivity? (100k Devs Study) - Yegor Denisov-Blanch, Stanford [video]
• Does accommodation work? Mainstream party strategies and the success of radical right parties, by Krause et al
• The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion, by John R. Zaller [book]
• Consuming Cross-Cutting Media Causes Learning and Moderates Attitudes: A Field Experiment with Fox News Viewers, by David E. Broockman and Joshua L. Kalla

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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

In this episode of Cross Tabs, host Farrah Bostic discusses the intricacies of the current political climate and the emotional toll with guest Lauren Goldstein, author of the 'Mind the Gap' newsletter. The conversation touches on the overwhelming events of the last month, including ICE raids, National Guard actions, and the shutdown. Lauren shares her own struggles with the civic mood and together they explore the concept of thermostatic public opinion and the pitfalls of modern political strategy, including the need for a more authentic and proactive approach. But all is not lost! We discuss the necessity for Democrats to focus on how to not merely win the next election, but to build a better future grounded in authenticity, intentionality, and a shared vision.

Our Guest 

Lauren Goldstein is the lead advocacy pollster for Change Research and holds a PhD from UCLA with ten years of experience as a public opinion researcher and social scientist. She has done extensive research and polling on issues related to racial justice (and injustice), criminal legal reform and police divestment, immigration, and reproductive rights. She is the author of the Mind the Gap newsletter.

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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

 Today on the show, we are diving deep into the fast changing world of political campaigns with someone who's had a front row seat to its transformation. Dr. Michael D. Cohen is the CEO of Cohen Research Group. A leading firm at the intersection of politics, public affairs, and corporate strategy.

He's the creator of the Congress in your Pocket suite of AI powered mobile apps, and teaches digital political strategy at Johns Hopkins and NYU. He's also the author of Modern Political Campaigns now in its second edition with a. Timely new chapter on artificial intelligence. In this conversation, Dr.

Cohen walks me through the evolution of campaigns from loosely organized operations to today's high speed tech enabled data-driven, consultant driven machines. We talk about how strategy has shifted from relying. Solely on polling to navigating a complex web of information sources. We also explore the rising importance of crisis communication, the fine line between authenticity and brand control, and the double-edged sword of AI in campaign operations.

It's a candid, clear-eyed look at the machinery behind modern elections and what it means for democracy, strategy, and the future of campaigning.

MICHAEL D. COHEN, PH.D. is CEO of Cohen Research Group a leading political, public affairs, and corporate research firm. He publishes the pioneering Congress in Your Pocket suite of AI-driven mobile apps and teaches courses at Johns Hopkins University and New York University on digital political strategy and political campaigning. He is the author of Modern Political Campaigns: How Professionalism, Technology, and Speed Have Revolutionized Elections, a second edition featuring a new chapter on artificial intelligence published in early 2025 with Bloomsbury. After running political campaigns in college, Dr. Cohen served in leadership positions at The Gallup Organization, Microsoft, USA Facts, and Purple Strategies, as well as two political polling firms. He is a three-time graduate of the University of Florida with degrees in mass communications and political science, and he a member of its leadership Hall of Fame.

The Power and the Money by Tevi Troy

"How Strategist Brain Took Over the Democratic Party" by Ben Mathis-Lilley in Slate

Campaigns & Elections Magazine

The "Harry & Louise" Ads via C-SPAN on YouTube

Jake Rush's appearance on The Colbert Report via the Internet Archive

"Why CMOs Never Last" by Kimberly A. Whitler and Neil A. Morgan in Harvard Business Review

Congress In Your Pocket

Modern Political Campaigns by Michael D. Cohen

Michael D. Cohen's personal website linking to his projects and CV

Cohen Research Group

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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

Farrah Bostic talks with G. Elliott Morris, the founder of Strength in Numbers (and author of a book by the same name) to discuss the evolution of data journalism and the critical role of public opinion polling in a healthy democracy. Morris, formerly of The Economist and FiveThirtyEight, shares his vision for a new era of "pollster-driven poll journalism" and how he aims to fill a crucial gap in the media landscape.

We also discussed Strength in Numbers' July Poll, which looked at everything from Trump's approval numbers, to Democrats' weakness on the generic ballot, to the unpopularity of specific provisions of the reconciliation bill, to how people feel about third parties (and Musk's third party specifically).

A core feature of these polls is that Morris takes suggestions from his community for questions to put on the polls - which means that the public gets a say in what we put on public opinion surveys for once.

You can check out the latest July poll from Strength in Numbers (and subscribe) here: https://www.gelliottmorris.com/p/new-poll-dems-lead-house-generic

You can also find his book, Strength in Numbers: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them here: https://wwnorton.com/books/strength-in-numbers

Our Guest

Elliott Morris is a data-driven journalist and author living in Washington, DC. He is the author of STRENGTH IN NUMBERS: How Polls Work and Why We Need Them, a book about public opinion polling and democracy which was published in 2022 by W. W. Norton.

Elliott was most recently the Editorial Director of Data Analytics at ABC News, where he developed polling aggregation and election-forecasting models and managed the research and data visualization teams for ABC’s data-journalism website FiveThirtyEight/538. He was a regular guest on the network’s broadcast and streaming news programs providing political analysis on notable events and upcoming elections.

He is the founder of Strength in Numbers, a data-driven news website that provides regular analysis of national politics and elections in the United States.

Your Host

Farrah Bostic is the founder of The Difference Engine, a strategic research and innovation consultancy. Drawing on her extensive background in research and strategy, she examines how power dynamics and data patterns shape both democratic institutions and market environments, bringing a sharp analytical perspective to the intersection of politics, data, and business. 

Her incisive questioning style and ability to connect political movements with business implications makes Cross Tabs essential listening for political analysts, business leaders, and engaged citizens seeking to understand the forces shaping our political and economic landscapes. 

Learn more about Farrah’s experience helping B2B and B2C companies across various industries turn audience insights into effective strategies at thedifferenceengine.co, and be sure to connect with her on LinkedIn if you’d like to discuss how The Difference Engine can help your business grow with authentic customer insights.

Stay in Touch

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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

On July 1, I sat down to talk to Scott Keeter and Hannah Hartig from Pew Research about their 2024 Validated Voter Survey.

We talked about the challenges of analyzing elections using panel data, and about the shifts in makeup of the electorate between 2020 and 2024, and what that means for how campaigns think about balancing turnout and persuasion strategies. More than anything, they tell us, mobilization is a result of campaigning. You gotta play to win.

How Changes in Turnout and Vote Choice Powered Trump’s Victory in 2024

Behind Trump’s 2024 Victory, a More Racially and Ethnically Diverse Voter Coalition

Commercial Voter Files and the Study of U.S. Politics

My interview with L2 about their approach to assembling the voter file: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cross-tabs/id1725891109?i=1000651891510

My interview with Michael McDonald discussing turnout models and his Election Project: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/cross-tabs/id1725891109?i=1000666055702

The Red Shift Maps from NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/06/us/politics/presidential-election-2024-red-shift.html

Hank Green's response video to the red shift maps: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kC9u7NZbGlQ)

David Shor on Ezra Klein talking about changing demographics in the MAGA coalition: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/democrats-need-to-face-why-trump-won/id1548604447?i=1000699618199

Our Guests:

Hannah Hartig is a senior researcher at Pew Research Center, where she primarily studies U.S. political attitudes and voting behavior. She has authored analyses on topics including domestic opinions of the U.S., voter turnout in 2020 and views of abortion. Prior to joining the Center, she was director of research at the Penn Program on Opinion Research and Election Studies at the University of Pennsylvania. She regularly discusses the Center’s political research with the news media and has served as an election night exit poll analyst for NBC News since 2014. Hartig received her bachelor’s in foreign affairs from the University of Virginia and master’s degree in quantitative politics from the University of Pennsylvania.

Scott Keeter is a senior survey advisor at Pew Research Center. In this role, he provides methodological guidance to all of Pew Research Center’s research areas. An expert on American public opinion and political behavior, he is co-author of four books, including What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters (Yale University Press), A New Engagement? Political Participation, Civic Life, and the Changing American Citizen (Oxford University Press), The Diminishing Divide: Religion’s Changing Role in American Politics (Brookings Institution Press), ** and Uninformed Choice: The Failure of the New Presidential Nominating System (Praeger). He has also published numerous articles on survey methodology. Prior to joining Pew Research Center, he taught at George Mason University, Rutgers University and Virginia Commonwealth University, where he also directed a survey research center. Keeter is a graduate of Davidson College and received his doctorate in political science from the University of North Carolina. He is a past president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR). In 2016, Keeter won AAPOR’s highest honor, the AAPOR Award for Lifetime Achievement, for “outstanding contributions to the field of public opinion research.”

You can follow their work, and even donate to support Pew’s Research, at pewresearch.org

----

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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

In this episode, Farrah Bostic is joined by messaging strategist, author, and Words to Win By host Anat Shenker-Osorio for a wide-ranging and incisive conversation about political communication, campaign strategy, and why so much of what the Democratic Party does feels like a missed opportunity.

Together, they explore:

• How Anat’s early fascination with language and justice led her to a career in cognitive linguistics and progressive messaging.
• Why most political message testing (RCTs, MaxDiff, etc.) fails to reflect how real people encounter campaigns — and what to do instead.
• The danger of focusing on persuasion over mobilization, and why “say what you’re for” is the most important rule in campaign comms.
• How Democrats lost their working-class identity, and why organizing — not polling — is the only way to win it back.
• The power of persuasion windows and how the left can seize — or squander — them.

This episode is a must-listen for anyone working in politics, messaging, organizing, or simply trying to make change in a noisy, distracted, and deeply unequal world.

🔗 Resources & Mentions:

• ASO Communications – Open-source messaging guides and research
• Words to Win By podcast
• Don't Buy It: The Trouble with Talking Nonsense About the Economy 
• Follow Anat on BlueSky and Substack

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📍 Produced by The Difference Engine

After a brief break, Cross Tabs returns with a must-hear conversation between host Farrah Bostic and journalist-pollster Ariel Edwards-Levy, CNN’s Editor of Polling and Election Analytics. Ariel shares insights from over a decade of political polling and reporting, shedding light on how polls get designed, interpreted, and communicated—and why public opinion is more nuanced, contradictory, and dynamic than we often assume.

📌 Topic Highlights

• How polling serves as a form of large-scale journalism
• Question design, framing effects, and the limits of hypothetical polling
• Expressive responding and partisanship’s effect on perception
• The challenge of polling on emerging topics like AI and crypto
• Why polls often fail to capture what people mean when they talk about democracy, education, or trust in government
• What polling reveals—and obscures—about voter discontent with both parties

👤 About Our Guest

Ariel Edwards-Levy is the Editor of Polling and Election Analytics at CNN. Previously, she was a senior reporter and polling editor at HuffPost. She is a member of the American Association for Public Opinion Research and was awarded the 2019 Carey McWilliams Award by the American Political Science Association for her journalistic contributions to understanding politics. You can follow her work (and jokes!) on Bluesky.

🔗 Mentioned Resources

• CNN Polling Hub: https://www.cnn.com/politics/polling-center
• CNN/SSRS polling report: "A record share of Americans want the government to get more done": https://www.cnn.com/2024/05/08/politics/poll-government-done-party-trust
• The Breakthrough Project (CNN, Georgetown, Michigan, SSRS, Verasight): https://breakthrough.cnn.com
• Pew Research on AI: https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/08/28/how-the-us-public-and-experts-view-artificial-intelligence
• Roper Center for Public Opinion Archives: https://ropercenter.cornell.edu
• Brian Schaffner’s research on expressive responding: https://sites.tufts.edu/brianschaffner/publications/

📣 Stay Connected

Like what you heard?

✔️ Subscribe to Cross Tabs wherever you get your podcasts

✔️ Rate and review the show—it helps others find us

✔️ Follow the show on BlueSky

✔️ Watch full episodes on YouTube

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✔️ Follow Farrah Bostic on BlueSky

✔️ Learn more at: https://thedifferenceengine.co

We've been off for about a month. But we've been busy.

Check out our new trailer, and don't forget to like and subscribe to get new episodes each Wednesday.

The wealth divide is reshaping consumer markets, with 10% of households now driving 50% of all consumer spending in America while the majority struggle with inflation and debt. This economic distortion, hidden by misleading averages, is now colliding with new international tariffs that threaten to remove entire categories of goods from store shelves. 

In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah interviews brand strategist Faris Yakob about how misunderstood economic metrics mask the real consumer experience. They discuss how the stock market crash will impact wealthy consumers who've been propping up economic growth, why statistical averages are increasingly misleading when wealth distribution looks nothing like a bell curve, and how political polarization mirrors these economic divisions. Yakob provides fascinating context for why so many Americans feel economically squeezed despite positive macroeconomic indicators. 

Want to be a part of the future of Cross Tabs Podcast? Here are a few simple ways to get involved:  

- Subscribe, rate, and review Cross Tabs Podcast on your favorite podcast app   

- Subscribe to Cross Tabs Podcast Substack and suggest Cross Tabs to your audience if you have your own Substack - we’re happy to do the same!   

- Contact Farrah with guest or topic suggestions you’d like to hear about on the show  

Resources 

Mar-a-Lago Accord  

American Time Use Survey  

The Road to Somewhere by David Goodhart  

'What the Comfort Class Doesn't Get' by Xochitl Gonzalez in The Atlantic

“Strands of Genius” newsletter by Faris Yakob 

Paid Attention by Faris Yakob 

Our Guest 

Faris is the co-founder of Genius Steals, a nomadic creative consultancy that works with brands, agencies and events. He and his partner Rosie speak at conferences and corporate events all over the world and have been living nomadically in between engagements for the last 7 years. 

Previously he held senior agency roles at Naked Communications, McCann and MDC Partners, in London, Sydney and NYC. He is the author of Paid Attention: Innovative Advertising, writes a monthly column on effective brand communication, and bylines include Fast Company, Financial Times, The Guardian, Economic Times of India Brand Equity, and Campaign. 

Your Host 

Farrah Bostic is the founder of The Difference Engine, a strategic research and innovation consultancy. Drawing on her extensive background in research and strategy, she examines how power dynamics and data patterns shape both democratic institutions and market environments, bringing a sharp analytical perspective to the intersection of politics, data, and business. 

Her incisive questioning style and ability to connect political movements with business implications makes Cross Tabs essential listening for political analysts, business leaders, and engaged citizens seeking to understand the forces shaping our political and economic landscapes. 

Learn more about Farrah’s experience helping B2B and B2C companies across various industries turn audience insights into effective strategies at thedifferenceengine.co, and be sure to connect with her on LinkedIn if you’d like to discuss how The Difference Engine can help your business grow with authentic customer insights.

Subscribe to Cross Tabs 

Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: 

• Apple Podcasts 
• Spotify

Educational attainment has become the new fault line in American politics, creating unexpected coalitions that cross racial boundaries. Research reveals a surprising shift of working-class voters across all demographics toward populist candidates who promise to fight for their interests rather than cater to college-educated elites.

Political researcher Patrick Ruffini, co-founder of Echelon Insights and author of Party of the People, discusses these findings in this conversation with Farrah. Ruffini explains how the Democratic coalition has fractured along educational rather than economic lines, with cultural values becoming increasingly decisive in voting behavior. This analysis shows the disconnect between political elites and mainstream voters, highlighting an underlying optimism among immigrant and working-class communities that starkly contrasts with the pessimism often expressed by college-educated whites.

Want to be a part of the future of Cross Tabs Podcast? Here are a few simple ways to get involved:  

- Subscribe, rate, and review Cross Tabs Podcast on your favorite podcast app   

- Subscribe to Cross Tabs Podcast Substack and suggest Cross Tabs to your audience if you have your own Substack - we’re happy to do the same!   

- Contact Farrah with guest or topic suggestions you’d like to hear about on the show  

Resources 

‘Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP’

Echelon Insights   

The Intersection  

Growth and Opportunity Project Report  

David Shor's Diploma Divide Hypothesis  

Political Inequality in Affluent Democracies: The Social Welfare Deficit   

What if the US Were a Multi-Party Democracy?  

Our Guest 

Patrick Ruffini is a founding partner at Echelon Insights, one of the most widely recognized public opinion and strategic research firms in the United States. 

Patrick is the author of ‘Party of the People: Inside the Multiracial Populist Coalition Remaking the GOP,’ called “the book that predicted the 2024 election” by The New York Times and ranked as a Best Book in Politics by the Wall Street Journal.  

An expert in political realignment and demographic trends, Patrick is a prolific speaker, writer, and political commentator. He has offered on-air analysis, including on election nights, for CNBC, Fox News, the BBC, and NPR and written for The New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, Time, The Atlantic, and Politico, among others. 

Patrick has led hundreds of strategic communications, survey, data analytics, and focus group projects for Fortune 500 companies, leading foundations and advocacy groups, and political campaigns nationally and internationally. 

Since Patrick co-founded Echelon Insights in 2014, the firm has been known for its innovative approach and accurate track record. It was ranked one of the three most accurate private polling firms in the country by 538 and is one of the most-awarded polling and data firms in the country by the American Association of Political Consultants and Campaigns & Elections. 

Before starting Echelon Insights, Patrick led one of the country’s premier digital strategy and communications firms, Engage, and served in senior roles at the Republican National Committee and for President George W. Bush’s 2004 re-election campaign. 

Patrick is a graduate of the University of Pennsylvania and lives with his family in the Washington, D.C. suburbs. 

Your Host 

Farrah Bostic is the founder of The Difference Engine, a strategic research and innovation consultancy. Drawing on her extensive background in research and strategy, she examines how power dynamics and data patterns shape both democratic institutions and market environments, bringing a sharp analytical perspective to the intersection of politics, data, and business. 

Her incisive questioning style and ability to connect political movements with business implications makes Cross Tabs essential listening for political analysts, business leaders, and engaged citizens seeking to understand the forces shaping our political and economic landscapes. 

Learn more about Farrah’s experience helping B2B and B2C companies across various industries turn audience insights into effective strategies at thedifferenceengine.co, and be sure to connect with her on LinkedIn if you’d like to discuss how The Difference Engine can help your business grow with authentic customer insights.

Subscribe to Cross Tabs 

Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform: 

• Apple Podcasts 
• Spotify