By Farrah Bostic
5
88 ratings
The podcast currently has 25 episodes available.
Immersive simulations and war games are transforming how organizations make complex decisions and understand human behavior, with artificial intelligence now making these powerful tools more accessible than ever. By putting participants in realistic scenarios with emotional stakes, these games reveal blind spots in thinking, challenge assumptions, and build cognitive empathy across divides.
This episode features Daveed Gartenstein-Ross and Eleanor Ross of Valens Games, who discuss their work creating sophisticated political and national security simulations. They share insights on using AI to democratize game design, the importance of incorporating humor and humanity into serious scenarios, and how simulations can help bridge social divisions by encouraging participants to see issues from multiple perspectives. The conversation touches on applications ranging from academic teaching to corporate decision-making, highlighting how games create safe spaces for practicing high-consequence choices.
Resources
Crossing the Chasm by Geoffrey Moore https://a.co/d/5IJOIdS
War Game (Documentary) https://www.imdb.com/title/tt26681810/
Providence (Platform) https://playprovidence.io/
Acceleration (Game) https://valensglobal.com/what-we-do/simulations-hub/wargames-simulations/
Our Guests
Daveed Gartenstein-Ross is the founder and CEO of Valens Games, pioneering the use of immersive simulations and AI-powered game design in national security, politics, and organizational decision-making. A counterterrorism expert who previously led the drafting of the Department of Homeland Security's 2019 counterterrorism strategy, Gartenstein-Ross transitioned from teaching at Georgetown University's Security Studies Program to developing innovative educational gaming experiences that help participants challenge assumptions and think differently about complex challenges.
Eleanor Ross joined Valens Games after first experiencing their work as a student at Duke University, where she participated in and then team-led national security simulations. With a research background and plans to enter government service, Ross was drawn to Valens Games' unique approach to learning and now helps develop immersive exercises that build cognitive empathy and critical thinking skills. She specializes in creating engaging narratives and characters that make complex scenarios more approachable and meaningful for participants.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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Despite decades of political polling and analysis, most voters know almost nothing about politics, policy, or current events - and traditional campaign strategies completely fail to account for this reality. The key to winning elections isn't policy positions or positive messaging, but rather effectively defining your opponent before they can define you.
Dr. Rachel Bitecofer, political analyst and author of Hit ‘Em Where It Hurts, joins Farrah Bostic to break down why Democratic campaign strategies are fundamentally flawed and what actually moves voters. Drawing from her experience as a pollster and strategist, Bitecofer explains how Republicans have mastered "negative partisanship" messaging while Democrats continue to waste resources on micro-targeting and policy-focused campaigns that don't reach or resonate with most voters. She argues that Democrats must adopt more effective branding and messaging strategies that speak to voters' immediate concerns and fears, rather than assuming an informed and engaged electorate that doesn't exist.
Resources
Hit 'Em Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game by Rachel Bitecofer - https://a.co/d/9gcRHxM
It Was All a Lie by Stuart Stevens - https://a.co/d/hDkoAoJ
Virginia Governor Poll Study (2019-2020) by Rachel Bitecofer - https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/2019-10-07-va-leg-1/
Partisan Response Study by Rachel Bitecofer - https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3414607
The Next Level Podcast featuring Sarah Longwell - https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-next-level/id1647085571
Blueprint Research - https://blueprint2024.com/about/
Our Guest
Rachel Bitecofer is a political analyst, strategist, and author of Hit Them Where It Hurts: How to Save Democracy by Beating Republicans at Their Own Game. After a career in academia where she taught political science and ran a survey research center, Bitecofer shifted to focus on reforming Democratic campaign strategy. Known for her theory of negative partisanship and accurate electoral predictions, she argues that traditional Democratic campaign approaches fundamentally misunderstand voter psychology and behavior.
Unlike conventional pollsters and analysts, she emphasizes that most voters are largely uninformed about politics and make decisions based on emotional triggers rather than policy positions. Bitecofer has worked with the Democratic National Committee to implement more effective messaging strategies and regularly provides commentary on political campaigns and electoral dynamics.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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In this episode, Farrah talks to the Chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project, Anil Cacodcar, about the origins and evolution of the Poll, which was started by students in 2000. We discuss the process the student team uses to develop survey questions, organize research topics, and partner with the Ipsos Knowledge Panel to reach young respondents.
We also discuss insights from the latest poll data, including a shift in enthusiasm among young Democrats after Kamala Harris joined the ticket, the gender gap in candidate perceptions, and the role of factors like candidate characteristics and social media in shaping youth opinion.
We also discussed challenges in measuring the impact of media consumption and events on young voters' opinions in the current information landscape, and get Anil's perspective on the future of youth polling and what he'll be watching for in the upcoming election.
Throughout the conversation, we explore the complexities of understanding and reaching the youth electorate, as well as the importance of qualitative research to complement polling data.
After the interview, Farrah shares some reflections on the last 2 weeks of the polling landscape — and why you should avert your gaze to other more pressing matters: like defending the votes that are already being cast.
Our Guest:
Anil Cacodcar, is an undergraduate student at Harvard and Chair of the Harvard Public Opinion Project, which runs the nation's largest poll on the political opinions and civic attitudes of young Americans. He studies both Economics and Human Developmental & Regenerative Biology.
Resources:
The latest Harvard Youth Poll
Harvard Public Opinion Project
"Americans under 21 first voted 50 years ago. It didn’t go as expected." The Washington Post
US Elections Project
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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Political polling and forecasting are complex and fraught with uncertainty, yet they remain crucial tools for understanding elections and voter behavior. The challenge lies in accurately modeling likely electorates, communicating probabilities to the public, and interpreting correlations between issues and voting patterns.
In this episode, Farrah talks to John Sides, a political scientist and professor at Vanderbilt University. Sides discusses the difficulties in surveying young voters, the limitations of issue-importance questions in polls, and his ideal dataset for studying voter behavior across election cycles. He emphasizes the need for more nuanced interpretations of polling data and forecasts, urging us all to embrace uncertainty while still finding value in the data.
Resources
Good Authority
By John Sides:
John Sides is a distinguished political scientist and professor in the Department of Political Science at Vanderbilt University. His research focuses on political behavior, public opinion, and the dynamics of American elections. Sides is also a co-founder of Good Authority, a publication that brings academic insights to bear on current political issues. Previously, he was a founding editor of The Monkey Cage, a popular political science blog that was later published by The Washington Post.
Sides is known for his data-driven approach to analyzing political trends and his ability to communicate complex political concepts to a general audience. He has authored several books on American politics and elections, including The Gamble and Identity Crisis, which examined the factors behind Donald Trump's 2016 election victory.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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Quick production note: Farrah's audio gets better a couple of minutes into the recording. We have no idea what went wrong, but you'll only suffer for a few minutes before everyone sounds great. :)
In this episode, host Farrah Bostic explores the fascinating relationship between journalism and polling, inspired by the book Lost in a Gallup, with its author, Professor W. Joseph Campbell. We discuss the historical evolution of polling from its early days, marked by the Literary Digest's infamous 1936 failure, to the upstart methodologies of Gallup, Roper, and Crossley. The conversation highlights the love-hate relationship between journalists and pollsters, exploring the mutual benefits and tensions that have shaped their interactions over decades. We also examine major polling failures, including the 1948 Dewey-Truman election, and the complexities of modern polling methods. The episode emphasizes the human desire for prediction and the underlying challenges of accurately gauging public opinion in an ever-evolving media landscape.
W. Joseph Campbell is a former newspaper and wire service journalist who reported from four continents in an award-winning twenty-year career. He is currently professor emeritus at American University's School of Communication, and is the author of Lost in a Gallup (2020), Getting It Wrong (2010, 2017), and 1995: The Year the Future Began (2015) among other works.
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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This week we're taking a break from national polling to talk about polling done by a group trying hard to influence the outcome of various races this cycle: crypto bros. The influence and agenda of the crypto industry is lurking behind a lot of the candidates and their policy positions. Crypto PACs are raising and spending over $100 million on 2024 races. It's in crypto's interests to portray itself as representing a large voting bloc who will vote based on a candidate's position on crypto — via industry-funded polls making claims about American's crypto behavior and beliefs. They seem to be cutting through: the RNC adopted an entire plank of crypto-industry pet positions into their party platform.
Who better to talk through these polls, PACs, and policy positions than cryptoresearcher Molly White. She joins me to break down the way the industry is trying to persuade through polls, and why we need more journalists and politicos to bring a much higher level of scrutiny to industry polling.
Molly White is a researcher, software engineer, and prominent critic of cryptocurrencies and blockchain-based projects. She is best known for her website Web3 is Going Just Great, which documents only some of the many disasters in the cryptocurrency and web3 industries, and for her Follow the Crypto election spending tracker.
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
Forecasting election outcomes involves far more than simple polling averages, often incorporating complex models that account for candidate strengths, voter demographics, and historical trends. While these models strive for accuracy, they must grapple with the inherent unpredictability of human behavior and the challenge of quantifying intangible factors like voter enthusiasm and candidate quality.
In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah Bostic interviews Lakshya Jain, a co-founder of the elections blog Split Ticket. Jain offers insights into the intricacies of election modeling, discussing the limitations of polls, the importance of cross-tabs, and the value of embracing uncertainty in forecasts. He also touches on the recent shift from Joe Biden to Kamala Harris as the Democratic presidential nominee, exploring how this change has reshaped polling data and electoral predictions.
Split Ticket: https://split-ticket.org
Split Ticket's Presidential Polling Aggregator
We Dug Into the 2024 Polling Crosstabs. What We Found Was Stunning. (Lakshya Jain and Harrison Lavelle in Politico)
How #electiontwitter took over the political prediction game (Financial Times)
How The Times/Siena Poll Is Conducted (The New York Times)
Pollster Ratings (FiveThirtyEight)
Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast
Lakshya Jain is a machine learning engineer who analyzes political data in his free time. He handles modeling, data pieces, and presidential ratings for Split Ticket. Jain graduated from UC Berkeley with a BA in 2019 and an MS in 2020, majoring in computer science. He currently works in the tech industry. His political analysis and writing have appeared in prominent publications such as The New York Times, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and The Bulwark.
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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America's political landscape is deeply divided into two distinct nations, shaped by historical, economic, and cultural forces that extend far beyond simple demographics. This divide manifests in vastly different lived experiences, policy preferences, and institutional structures between red and blue states, with profound implications for the future of American democracy and governance.
In this episode of Cross Tabs, Farrah Bostic interviews Mike Podhorzer, a political strategist and data analyst, to discuss Podhorzer's excellent analysis of The Two Americas, examining how factors like regional factionalism, economic models, religious institutions, and labor unions have contributed to the current political polarization. The conversation covers the limitations of traditional polling methods, the role of exogenous events in shaping political alignments, and the potential for collective action to address systemic issues in American politics.
Resources
"The Limits of Education Essentialism" by Mike Podhorzer
"The Two Nations of America" by Mike Podhorzer
"As Go Unions, So Goes America" by Mike Podhorzer
Know Your Enemy podcast episode The Bomb Power
Cook Political Report podcast episode What Polls Miss - And What We Should Focus On Instead
Our Guest
Mike Podhorzer is a renowned political strategist and data analyst with decades of experience in labor politics and progressive causes. He served as the longtime political director of the AFL-CIO, where he pioneered innovative approaches to voter mobilization and data-driven campaigning.
Podhorzer is widely recognized for his insightful analysis of American political trends, particularly his work on the "Two Americas" concept, which examines the deep structural divides in U.S. politics. His writing and research have contributed significantly to understanding the complexities of modern American political landscapes beyond traditional polling metrics.
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
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In this post-nominating conventions episode, I reflect on lessons learned as we approach the last 60 days before the election. Some key themes include:
Tune in to gain a nuanced understanding of polling, forecasting, and political marketing as we head towards the election.
There are 69 days to the 2024 election.
"Mad Poll Disease Redux: Harris-Walz Edition" Weekend Reading by Mike Podhorzer
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
Subscribe to Cross Tabs
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Polling data and turnout models are far more complex than most people realize, with numerous factors influencing their accuracy and interpretation. From the challenges of non-response bias to the intricacies of early voting analysis, understanding election forecasts requires a nuanced approach beyond simple percentages.
In this episode of Crosstabs, Farrah speaks with Dr. Michael McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida. Dr. McDonald, known for producing the country's voter turnout rates, shares his expertise on the complexities of polling methodologies, the impact of demographic shifts on voting patterns, and the critical need for standardized election data collection across the United States. The conversation covers a wide range of topics, including the limitations of voter files, the challenges of predicting turnout, and the potential benefits of a national identity card for solving voter registration issues.
Resources
Voter Turnout Gap in Surveys
Performance of American Elections Survey
Election Lab at UF
Current Population Survey Voter and Registration Supplement
Cooperative Election Survey
US Election Project (Michael McDonald’s Substack newsletter)
Our Guest
Dr. Michael McDonald is a professor of political science at the University of Florida and a renowned expert on American elections. He is best known for producing the United States Elections Project, which provides the country's most authoritative voter turnout statistics.
Dr. McDonald's work on early voting patterns and election administration has been widely cited in academic research and media coverage. His expertise extends to redistricting, voting rights, and the analysis of precinct-level election data. With a career spanning decades, Dr. McDonald has become a go-to source for understanding the complexities of the American electoral system and voter behavior.
Your Host
Farrah Bostic is the founder and Head of Research & Strategy at The Difference Engine, a strategic insights consultancy. With over 20 years of experience turning audience insights into effective strategies for B2B and B2C companies, Farrah helps business leaders make big decisions across various industries. Learn more at thedifferenceengine.co and connect with Farrah on LinkedIn.
Subscribe to Cross Tabs
Don't miss an episode! Subscribe to Cross Tabs on your favorite podcast platform:
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